Other Rugby Competitions

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:55 am

:thumbs No tries for any of the players so a make up of zero for the maximum profit of 44 x stake.

In the interest of transparency I should say that my only other bet on the game was a "routine" sell of Sale substitute try minutes at 39 which made up at 78 for a 39 point loss, meaning I only made a small net profit on the game. That's the nature of these bets though, it's all about sticking to the script and turning a long term profit.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm

Here's another "interesting" sell ( the routine sells are doing ok having just put a toe over the 6000 point profit line).

Bulls v Griquas: Sell Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN (Gio Aplon,Travis Ismaiel,Cornal Hendricks,David Kriel). SX go 63-68 with Gans in place of Hendricks. Gans' try minutes are on offer at 28-30 while Hendricks are only 19-20. So a 10 point lower hotshots price when the player who differs has a 10 points lower try minutes price! {8

Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:26 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm
Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.
Again, no tries for any of the 4 players so the maximum profit of 73 x stake. Having been transparent with my other losing bet on the previous selection, it only seems fair to mention that the other "routine" bet on this game was a sell of the Bulls sub try minutes at 88 which also made up at zero for a profit of 88 x stake! :>

One for today in a similar vein thought closer to routine than the previous selection (this has a perceived edge of 11% compared to 17% and 20% for the last 2).

Glasgow v Scarlets: Sell Glasgow hotshots at 31 with SPIN (Tommy Seymour, Nick Grigg, Ratu Tagive, Ali Price)

SX go 29-33 with Jones instead of Price. Jones can be bought or sold at 14 while Price is on offer at 8-10. "True" prices are 30.5 SX (bang in the middle of the spread) but 27.6 for SPIN (over 3 points below the sell price). Always nice to be selling at prices closer to yesterday's than today's but I've placed enough of these bets to be happy with this one, win or lose. To better serve the interests of transparency, I'll mention my routine bets upfront, I've sold both teams' sub try minutes, at 50 and 40 respectively.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:09 pm

Clean sweep there though the away subs were only 30, not 40 as I said. A total of 111 points profit on the game. :thumbs

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm

Just spotted there’s an early game tomorrow and it throws up another one of those “interesting” bets.

Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:50 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm
Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.
36 points profit on the hotshots (8 points for a non-runner but no tries for the remaining 3 players) but a 24 point loss on the sub try minutes so a 12 point net profit on the game. One for tonight in the Cheetahs v Bulls game, on the basis that a perceived edge of 17.8% qualifies as "interesting".

Sell Bulls hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Gio Aplon, David Kriel, Cornal Hendricks, Jade Stighling). SX have the same quartet at 30-34 and i get a notional value of just under 29. While a sell at 30 would probably be value but hardly an exciting one, selling at 4 points higher seems like a solid enough bet.

Same game I'm also selling Cheetahs hotshots at 47 and home and away sub try minutes at 35 and 40.

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