Chess Chat

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:25 pm

I tried it your way but unfortunately it messes the spreadsheet up! ;-)

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:09 pm

You and your spreadsheets! :)

Put it in layman’s terms when you post it on here then!

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:19 pm

i agree to an extent with opening king and queen pawn moves but, without looking at a board, i find it easier to think of C4 rather than "move the queen's bishop pawn 2 squares" or G3 rather than "king's knight pawn 1 square". I have to visualise where all the pieces are that way!

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:02 pm

Bit harder to draw conclusions from the stats for first move as black (depends on what white opened with) but here's the standouts.

Opening with E5 (King's pawn 2 squares) seems a bad idea. Your record doing it is won 8, lost 17 and 2 draws while mine (after today) is won 4 lost 7. That's a combined score of 12-24 (2)!

Neither of us use a knight move very often but we've both got positive records when we do, you're 8-4 (2) and I'm 5-4 (2). My best response is E6 (King's pawn 1 square) which is 11-3 (2).

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:33 am

I can just about work out the grid reference for white colours. When it’s black it just frazzles my brain.

I’d imagine whenever I’ve moved my knight first, my second move would’ve been my usual first move. Therefore after two moves, my pieces would still be in the same position as usual. It has got to be a coincidence that I’ve got a good strike rate opening with it.

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:42 am

I’d be interested to know one stat (purely because of yesterday’s game). How many times a player has lost his queen first and gone on to win. I’d guess 95% of the time they are swapped so there’s probably only half a dozen games to go on. I’m gonna plump for just one game each.

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:46 am

Test

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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:48 am

THats my first ever screenshot! :clap

That’s how the layout is on my app, H.

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:15 am

kenbo wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:33 am
I’d imagine whenever I’ve moved my knight first, my second move would’ve been my usual first move. Therefore after two moves, my pieces would still be in the same position as usual. It has got to be a coincidence that I’ve got a good strike rate opening with it.
It may well be random given the small sample size but I suspect that, a few times at least, you will have done it because my opening move cut off your usual one.

Screenshot the same as what I see, be interested in one that shows the timer you see for my moves.

Re queen loss comment, I'd be interested too but that will have to wait for the next time I have both time and inclination to look back over every game we've played! {8

I'll guess there will be at least 3 games won by someone who lost their queen first and at least one where the loser still had their queen on the board.

If I do look back in that detail I'll be interested in somehow noting how the scoring develops, e.g. first to, say, 5 points etc. (Let's call that a "significant" lead, e.g. at least a minor piece and 2 pawns.) I'd make me at least 1/3 to have taken a significant lead most often and 1/5 to have lost most games after taking a significant lead!

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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:40 pm

I will get a snap of the timer today.

I think there’s been quite a few games where we’ve lost while still holding our queen. Probably me more so, it’s a bastard losing while still holding valuable pieces.

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:54 pm

.

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:51 pm

Ah suspect I've got that and never noticed it, will look next time!

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The Fenman
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by The Fenman » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:01 am

Oive got hold of my valuable piece right now :>
Keep doing right things, right things happen. . . Simple innit

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:21 am

Harry’s last post could be a decent reply to that! :lol

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:11 pm

I bet he wouldn't keep holding it for long with someone vigorously probing his rearguard!

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The Fenman
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by The Fenman » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:22 pm

:> :> :> A chess game in progress is… a cosmos unto itself, fully insulated from an infant’s cry, an erotic invitation, or war.”


Tar
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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:24 am

Yesterday's freak footy results got me musing on probability and how very unlikely events are usually not quite as unlikely as people tend to think! Also I was thinking about how less experienced punters tend to attach too much significance to short term streaks, e.g. 6 match form. It got me musing about long winning streaks for either of us in our chess games, how often they happen and how we react to them when they do. In short, we probably over-estimate the relevance of good or bad form and understimate the extent to which it's just down to pure chance.

Before I share a few stats, I'd be interested in your guesses as to the following. Out of the 149 competitive games we've played to date:

How many times have either of us had 3 or more consecutive wins?
How is that split between the 2 of us?
What's the longest unbeaten run either of us have been on and who was it?

(Obviously this is addressed to Kenbo but anyone else is more than welcome to have a guess!) {8

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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:18 pm

I did look back at this a few weeks ago, I think when I needed four on the trot to win the series and noticed that neither of us have ever managed it (on this updated app anyway, I think you won the first four games but I haven’t got that in my games) before.

I didn’t count how many times it happened, but I’d guess it’s happened a dozen times, and I will say it’s evenly split.

I think I went seven or eight games unbeaten in one series, so I will say I’m winning that one?

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:39 pm

It's happened 14 times, 8-6 in your favour. I did win the first 4 games, which is obviously of no real relevance to where we are now. I did it 5 of the first six times it happened then you did it 6 times without reply. We've both done it once since then.

In terms of unbeaten runs, you're very much the daddy. I've managed 4 games on 3 occasions, that opening salvo of 4 wins and a couple of w-w-d-w sequences. You've managed 4 games twice (d-d-w-w- and w-w-w-d), a 5 (w-w-w-d-d) and a 7 (6 wins with a draw bang in the middle).

Statistically, I think it's remarkable that we've only had the one 4 game sequence and nothing longer, having played this many games. If you think of a coin toss, the odds of a sequence of 5 the same is only 15/1.

It's made me realise that a long winning run for one of us isn't as significant as it seems, being more down to luck than we credit it with at the time. Obviously we should see if we're making the same mistake or if our opponent is doing something that we need to respond to but the chances are it's just about who has made the fewest basic errors, or made them at the worst time.

Easier said than done but I'll try and remember that next time it feels like I can't buy a win!

kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:03 pm

I think you’re cooking the books saying it’s only 15/1 for a five timer! It’s only that price once you’ve won the first game.

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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:06 pm

If we were the same price each to win a game, and you add in the draw, what would the odds be? Would that make us both odds on?

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harry_rag
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by harry_rag » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:45 pm

kenbo wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:03 pm
I think you’re cooking the books saying it’s only 15/1 for a five timer! It’s only that price once you’ve won the first game.
No, I'm right (obviously) ;-) but I know where you're coming from. I'm not thinking in terms of the odds of heads coming up 5 times or me winning five games, I'm thinking of the odds of the same outcome (heads or tails, you or me) coming up 5 times. Toss a coin and see which side it lands, the odds of the same outcome happening on the next 4 tosses is 15/1. Start from any given point where either of us has just won a game, the odds of that person going on to win the next 4 games (ignoring the draw) is 15/1. That's the odds of the same outcome (unspecified) coming up 5 times in a row. Obviously the odds double if you specify heads or tails or me/you before the first toss.

With 16 draws in 149 games I've simplified things to say 10% chance of draw so a 90% chance of a result, split equally gives us each a 45% chance of winning any game. That makes the "true" decimal odds 2.22 each and 10 for the draw. On that basis, the odds of one of us, after winning a game, going on to win the next 4 become 24.39. The odds of avoiding defeat for the next 4 games are 10.93.

As I say, it surprises me that there haven't been more instances of either of us winning 4 in a row, or even avoiding defeat 4 or more times in a row.

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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:41 am

I should never doubt your figures! :lol

Both of us odds against to win a match, who’d have thought.

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The Fenman
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by The Fenman » Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:36 am

How much can i have on please :thumbs
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kenbo
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Re: Chess Chat

Post by kenbo » Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:56 am

As much as you want, but you’ll only be getting 4/5 for each of us!

It could go pay-per-view!

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