Football for the season 2020-2021

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:06 pm

Looks good Nick, fingers crossed :)

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:38 pm

Germany U21 v Moldova U21: 40+ bookings points evens, 50+ 9/4 and 60+ 4/1 all with Skybet.

The jewel in the crown there is the 50+ price (only 2/1 with the same firm in the other places where they offer it, e.g. >45 etc.) and probably due to be trimmed. The other 2 still not bad though and, obviously, the 40+ is the most likely to oblige.

Spread buy at 40 not necessarily a bad choice but fixed odds strike me as the better value.

Ref looks sufficiently "tasty" to get involved with cards here but worth stressing that it could be a damp squib if Germany have it as easy as the markets suggest they might.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/nejc-ka ... saison/ges

kenbo
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by kenbo » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:02 pm

No cards betting on the accounts I’ve got. *,

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:04 pm

:( Yeah, only one of the spread firms quoting bookings and Sky bet the only fixed odds option I could find.

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:19 pm

It seems that many referees have different profiles between their domestic matches and their international ones (Spanish refs in particular).

From what I could find German Daniel Siebert may be a bit tougher on the international front so Finland v Wales has some appeal. I've gone with over 4 cards (Asian) (Bet 365) at 1.90. Have upped stake a little with the comfort of money back if only 4 cards.

I also like the general profile of Hungarian ref Adam Farkas who takes charge (loosely, I hope) of Faroe Islands v Malta. Close games between minnows are frequently prone to ill discipline. No spreads available, so have gone over 59 bookings points at 13/8 (skybet).

Still waiting for spread prices on Russia v Serbia. It's a bit of an obvious one but Scottish ref Willie Collum may tolerate quite a lot. On balance I'll probably swerve anyway. Had considered Latvia v Andorra but very patchy profile for Cypriot ref. As I type Andorrans true to form have already picked up a yellow - I'll probably regret ducking out of this one.

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:39 pm

Good luck Nick. 40 points in the U21 game so enough for a profit (Sky limiting me on the fancy prices worked in my favour). Spreads would have just seen me break even.

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:08 pm

Romania v N Ireland 19:45

Home win
@ 2.10

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:09 pm

Cheers, Harry - 7 yellows in the Finland v Wales game :) , but only 4 in the Faroe Islands :( .

If you can find a bookings bet on Bosnia U21 v Wales U21, I'd be very grateful. There were 9 yellows in the reverse tie and Ukranian ref Mykola Balakin can go a bit mental. Sadly can't find any firms offering any prices *, .

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:39 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:09 pm
If you can find a bookings bet on Bosnia U21 v Wales U21, I'd be very grateful. There were 9 yellows in the reverse tie and Ukranian ref Mykola Balakin can go a bit mental. Sadly can't find any firms offering any prices *, .
Me neither unfortunately.

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:58 pm

Thanks for having a look, Harry.

I've had a small buy of cross bookings in the Malta U21 v N Ireland U21 game at 490 (SX). This could be a damp squib as it's a basement match for wooden spoon "honours". However, it's Malta's first home game in the group, the sides may be motivated not to finish bottom, and the referee from Slovakia, Michal Ocenas, has a fair bit of form. He does not seem shy of showing cards at junior international level. Although not necessarily relevant, his domestic make ups this month are 95, 70 and 130.

Not particularly confident but worth a dabble when I can't find any other football bet today.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:53 pm

Good luck Nick, I've just had a look at the Lithuania/Kazakhstan game and think Zaynutdinov is a decent anytime bet at 15/4 with 365 or even 7/2 with PP (nearly missed the bigger price as his name's spelt in different ways). Might as well stick a couple of quid on the brace at 33s as well.

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:47 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:53 pm
Good luck Nick, I've just had a look at the Lithuania/Kazakhstan game and think Zaynutdinov is a decent anytime bet at 15/4 with 365 or even 7/2 with PP (nearly missed the bigger price as his name's spelt in different ways). Might as well stick a couple of quid on the brace at 33s as well.
Great spot, Harry, as Zay-thing obliges for you :thumbs .

Typically the no-market Bosnia/Wales game I wanted to bet on has 8 yellows, and the Malta/N Ireland game where I had a small dabble only 2 yellows. I looked at Austria v Albania and decided that Welsh ref Rob Jenkins would not oblige - of course that makes up at 90 with cross bookings 2000 (opening buy price was 405 *, ).

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by Col » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:40 am

Nice one harry :thumbs

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:55 am

Well done lads :thumbs

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:41 am

Marcondes 9/2 anytime for Brentford v Wycombe with PP looks decent. Spreads pitching him as more of a 3/1 shot, anything bigger than 7/2 probably value.

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PlaceWinner
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by PlaceWinner » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:32 pm

Best bet for this new Premier League season is

Top Manchester United Scorer-Bruno Fernandes @ 5-1 [Bet 365]

Helped the red devils to finish last season strong with 8 goals in only 14 appearances and is the team penalty taker
"This will not be beaten"

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:51 pm

PlaceWinner wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:32 pm
Best bet for this new Premier League season is

Top Manchester United Scorer-Bruno Fernandes @ 5-1 [Bet 365]

Helped the red devils to finish last season strong with 8 goals in only 14 appearances and is the team penalty taker
:thumbs That does look a decent bet. I've just been looking at the spreads for total penalties awarded. I sold last season at 132 and there were 92. This season the sell price os 105.5 so I'm not sure if there's enough of an edge to get involved again. Having said that, over the previous ten seasons the range had been from 80 to 106 with an average of 94 so the price does seem to be pitched around the worst case scenario mark. I'll have a mull and see if anyone else prices it up.

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:22 pm

I've followed on the Fernandes bet for the £6 I was allowed! *,

Got a bit more on this one: Havertz to score 10+ league goals for Chelsea at 6/5 with Hills.

SX have him in for 9.25 - 10.25 goals which suggests pretty much an even money shot, elsewhere you can get 11/8 for him to score 10 or less goals so one of the fixed odds prices is definitely value! With 12 and 17 in his last 2 Bundesliga seasons I'll take a chance that he's value to hit double figures at odds against.

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PlaceWinner
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by PlaceWinner » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:38 pm

:thumbs
"This will not be beaten"

daresaints
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by daresaints » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:57 am

So all St Mirren’s 3 goalkeepers have been ruled out today due to COVID ...... SPFL in their wisdom have decided that game goes ahead.
Saints are scrambling about for an emergency loan and to add to their problems centre half is also suspended.

Got to go for Hibs win and adding in Livingston, Rangers -1, and Chelsea for a four timer.

Good luck all 👍

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:38 pm

Djurgarden v Elfsborg 14:00 (Swed)

Total match cards 4 - 6
@ 2.50

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:55 pm

PAOK v Benfica today is reffed by Germany's Felix Brych. Cards wise he can be pretty much anything, definitely looks like a penalties ref in CL games (qualifying and proper).

My more "automated" picks tell me to back 4-6 cards (11/10 with Hills) and sell bookings (59 with SPIN but looks like SX will be pricing up soon). Using the creative part of my betting brain, I fancy a buy of penalty goal minutes at 15 with SPIN (again, SX now look like they will be adding prices for the full array of markets) with cover on penalty taken at 2/1 Hills (unless you can get better on BF).

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:05 pm

Automation beat creativity there (no pen but 6 cards for a net profit on the bookings bets).

I'm confused by the bookings markets in the Brighton v Sheff U game tonight. As expected for an EFL Cup game, the spreads are fairly low (20-23) but my initial reaction was "maybe a bit too low for an all PL tie". Looking at ref Tierney's stats (limited for cup ties) the price doesn't look too far out though I'd certainly rather be a buyer than a seller.

Now we come to the fixed odds prices where, to put it simply, if the spreads are about right then the overs prices are laughable but the unders prices appear to offer some value. Skybet offer <30 points at 5/4 which should be odds on based on the spreads! {8

Conclusion - there's value to be had either buying the spreads or backing unders. I've opted for a small buy at 23 in the hope that things are reasonably competitive.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:56 pm

Ripart 9/1 anytime PP for Nimes at Lyon looks big. Appears to be "up top" and the spread firms are quoting him at prices that suggest he'd be around half that.

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:59 pm

Jong AZ v Graafschap 17:45 (Hol)
Mjallby v Örebro 18:00 (Swed)
Sirius v Falkenbergs 18:00 (Swed)

Over 2.5 goals treble
@ 4.03

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