Football for the season 2020-2021

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Col
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Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by Col » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:06 pm

Please Continue in here.

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:03 pm

Ok guvnor! ;-)
nick wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:24 am
Pretty thin gruel today and all I have come up with is a bet in the Austrian Cup. Top tier Wolfsberg who have just finished 3rd behind Salzburg and Rapid Vienna host Regional League East side Neusiedl. The minnows finished 6th from bottom of their division and have just started the new campaign with a defeat. Over the last couple of seasons Wolfsberg have played away in the Cup against lower league side and won 6-0 and 9-0. Neusiedl last season lost 6-1 at home in the Cup to a 3rd tier club. I did stupidly try to get a bet with Hills for over 5.5 Wolfsberg goals at 13/8 and was offered £1.54, so instead:

Wolfsberg v Neusiedl BUY Wolfsberg goals at 5.1 (SPIN).
Just been having a butchers at this one (I'm watching too much Sweeney) and decided to split stakes across >5.5 Wolfsberg goals at 11/8 Hills and >5.5 total goals at 11/10 PP. Will do me for an interest in proceedings.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:17 pm

If you fancy some chips and mayo with your gruel Nick, have had a look at the game between Oostende and Anderlecht. Two bets for me, largely based on ref stats.

4-6 cards shown at 5/4 and red card shown at 4/1, both with Hills.

The bookings spread for this (40-44) is too low to flag it as a potential 4-6 cards bet (there's an argument to bet any game at odds against where the bookings spreads fall in a particular range) but I also think the ref stats are a decent indicator. I have 46 top flight games for today's ref over 5 seasons and he's landed in the middle band in 25 of them (54.35%). 18 went <4 and only 3 >6. The middle band stats are even more persuasive when you ignore the earliest of those 5 seasons when all 7 games were <4. Maybe he got feedback that he was being too lenient. Either way, he's been a consistent middler ever since. I also make it that 7 of the last 10 meetings between the teams have seen between 4 and 6 cards.

So much for the more solid selection, I also think a red card is worth a small bet at 4/1. Admittedly here I'm relying on more recent form from the ref; he's flashed 8 red cards in 7 of his last 27 games (25.9%). I'd probably pitch 7/2 as fair odds so 4/1 is just about enough to tempt me in. Only fair to say that there was just one red card in those 10 head to head fixtures but it's s small sample.

There you go; one rock solid selection (clear value at odds against in my opinion) and one with a greater degree of gut feel. Ref stats here.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jan-bot ... erb_id/BE1

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:11 pm

I think I'll retire to a nice chilli with a decent bottle of red wine, Harry, after Wolfsberg were held to a shock 2-2 draw by the minnows :( . Of course they have just scored 3 times in 5 minurtes in the extra time period *, . Wolfsberg were 1.01 and 1.02 generally pre-match!

I see that Ostend picked up 85 in their last game and have received 2 red cards in the last 4 matches so not just the ref stats on your side. I may join you on the red card - good luck :thumbs .

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:26 am

:thumbs "Rock solid" 4-6 cards bet lands (though was hanging on for a while with 6 cards shown) but no "gut feel" red card. Reasonable profit on the game.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by Col » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:48 am

Nice one harry :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:36 pm

Cheers Col, off to Poland today.

Lechia Gdansk v Rakow: 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 and pen scored at 13/5, both Hills and buy bookings at 48 with SX

Going back 53 games (2 completed seasons) for the ref shows 32 games landing on 4-6 cards (60.4%) with an average of 53.1 points. He's awarded 28 penalties in 22 games (41.5%). I'd rather back one to be scored at 13/5 than taken at 7/4 but that could obviously come back to bite me! Not much head to head form for the teams but it's encouraging enough in terms of cards and pens.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/pawel-r ... erb_id/PL1

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:17 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:26 am
:thumbs "Rock solid" 4-6 cards bet lands (though was hanging on for a while with 6 cards shown) but no "gut feel" red card. Reasonable profit on the game.
:thumbs :thumbs

Harry, as you know I can't get a bean on with Hills - can you suggest the best alternative bookie option(s) for this "rock solid" investment?

This afternoon I've just had a lazy, cheap buy of cross bookings at 260 (SX) in Norway: Brann v Stromsgodset. Recent cards shown to the teams offer some encouragement, although the ref, Ola Hobber Nilsen, does not. With a name like Ola Hobber you'd expect him to be more angry and officious ;-) .

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by daresaints » Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:42 pm

Fancy Rangers at -2 today - Gerrard Will be keen to get another win on the board
Double up with Livingston at home v Ross County ...... reckon Livi will be too strong for them on their plastic pitch.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:16 pm

nick wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:17 pm
Harry, as you know I can't get a bean on with Hills - can you suggest the best alternative bookie option(s) for this "rock solid" investment?
In a nutshell, nope so it's very much a case of making hay while the sun shines and hoping I stay under the radar (while wondering if it's a good idea to post these selections anywhere). You could venture into a shop as I believe the card markets are available there. Lads used to do similar though the band was often 3-5. At some point I should look at the slightly more common points bands (e.g. 25-45) but, to be honest, there's probably only Hills and Sky Bet that do those and I don't think the edge is quite as good.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:17 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:36 pm
Cheers Col, off to Poland today.

Lechia Gdansk v Rakow: 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 and pen scored at 13/5, both Hills and buy bookings at 48 with SX

Going back 53 games (2 completed seasons) for the ref shows 32 games landing on 4-6 cards (60.4%) with an average of 53.1 points. He's awarded 28 penalties in 22 games (41.5%). I'd rather back one to be scored at 13/5 than taken at 7/4 but that could obviously come back to bite me! Not much head to head form for the teams but it's encouraging enough in terms of cards and pens.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/pawel-r ... erb_id/PL1
No pen but bookings make up at 75 so 4-6 cards lands and a 27 point profit on the spread bet. :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 29, 2020 4:15 pm

Some bets in the Cercle Brugge v KV Kortrijk game. I've had a look at this game despite the spread firms not pricing up cards (I always like to consider the spreads against the fixed odds prices). That said, not many fixed odds firms price up the markets where there are no spreads and those that do could be vulnerable.

The strongest selection for me is >4.5 cards shown at 31/20 with 888, closely followed by the old stalwart 4-6 cards at 5/4 Hills. Small "raspberry sauce" bets (don't ask me where that ice cream cornet related metaphor came from) on a red card at 15/4 and >65 points at 18/5, both Hills.

Ref stats going back 3 completed seasons and 36 games sees 20 land in the middle band and a points average of 51.9. Red cards shown in 8 games, penalties in 16 (so I may regret swerving pen taken at 2/1)!

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:56 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:16 pm
.............................

In a nutshell, nope so it's very much a case of making hay while the sun shines and hoping I stay under the radar (while wondering if it's a good idea to post these selections anywhere). You could venture into a shop as I believe the card markets are available there. Lads used to do similar though the band was often 3-5. At some point I should look at the slightly more common points bands (e.g. 25-45) but, to be honest, there's probably only Hills and Sky Bet that do those and I don't think the edge is quite as good.
Thanks for reply - it's much as I thought.

Well done with Poland excursion ;-) :thumbs and good luck on your return trip via Belgium. [Make sure you quarantine yourself when you arrive home :lol ].

Not to be outdone by the Austrian Cup :> , I couldn't resist a bet on tomorrow's 10.15 am kick off Austria Vienna v Retz. There's a chance that the top tier side will score a few against Regional League minnows and hopefully (!) not much downside in a BUY of Austria Vienna's goal rush at 29 (SPIN).

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:00 am

Looking ok in Austria Nick, though the 4th goal would be nice! Main bets won in the last Belgian game, off there again for Genk v Club Brugge.

4-6 cards shown at 23/20 with Hills. Landed in 23 of the ref's last 39 top flight games (59%).

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/bram-va ... erb_id/BE1

4th and 5th goals arrived while I typed, well done Nick, didn't follow unfortunately! :thumbs *,

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:09 am

nick wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:56 pm
......................................

Not to be outdone by the Austrian Cup :> , I couldn't resist a bet on tomorrow's 10.15 am kick off Austria Vienna v Retz. There's a chance that the top tier side will score a few against Regional League minnows and hopefully (!) not much downside in a BUY of Austria Vienna's goal rush at 29 (SPIN).
5-0 for Austria Vienna for a nice 41 points profit :) :) .

:cheers ,Harry - just saw your post. Well done in Belgium :thumbs .

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by Col » Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:30 am

Well done chaps :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:12 pm

:thumbs One more trip to Belgium to finish the weekend (no joy earlier, went >6).

Gent V Mechelen: >4.5 cards at 11/10 with 888. All opinions are out there (>45 is odds on with Hills, 50+ evens with Skybet). Feels like a coin toss at worst to me so worth a small punt at odds against.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:25 pm

I went through some of the French refs last night and felt the best option could be Amaury Delerue who takes charge of Brest v Marseille this evening (8.00 pm). I've probably missed the boat with a couple of big make ups and red cards in the already completed Ligue 1 games this afternoon. Delerue has just had a 125 in the French Cup Final and immediately pre-lockdown went 75, 80, 70, and 65 to go slightly against his usual grain.

Both teams seem capable of racking up a few with Brest's last 3 at home being 30, 20 and 45 and their last away was 55. Marseilles' last aways were 30, 50 and 40. The safest fixed odds is perhaps Hills' over 45 points at 23/20 and Spreadex' 11/10. Have split stake between fixed odds over 45 points and a straight buy of bookings at 46.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:22 am

6 yellows for Brest v Marseille :) .

I'll pay a bit more attention to the French stuff as there are some healthy make ups at the moment.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:31 am

Graafschap v Den Bosch 19:00 (Hol)

Btts - yes
@ 1.83

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:15 am

nick wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:22 am
6 yellows for Brest v Marseille :) .

I'll pay a bit more attention to the French stuff as there are some healthy make ups at the moment.
Well done Nick. Another loser for me in Belgium. Been a good few days but yesterday not so great.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:03 pm

peanut wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:31 am
Graafschap v Den Bosch 19:00 (Hol)

Btts - yes
@ 1.83
:thumbs 4-2

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:31 pm

While unsuccessfully trying to find the ref's for today's 2 Finnish games I was amused to find a quote attributed to one of the coaches. Scroll down to "read more" and see what Maximus Tainio had to say! Put it this way, you wouldn't want him serving you breakfast! :)

http://www.veikkausliiga.com/tilastot/2 ... 5/ennakko/

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by Col » Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:20 pm

:lol :>

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:21 pm

I would commend anyone who can get more than 91 PENCE on with them to consider Hills' 11/4 about a penalty to be taken in the Egyptian Div 1 match between El Geish v Aswan. Both flirting with relegation so a close game likely. In last 5 games featuring El Geish there have been 5 pens, plus 2 in last 5 featuring Aswan. The referee, Mahmoud El Banna, has awarded 8 pens in 13 games this season.

Ref is a steady 40/50 merchant but did have 120 and 85 seven and eight games ago - also awarded 3 pens in one game four matches ago. Might have a small dabble at cross-bookings in running (opening price is 410 to buy).

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by peanut » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:06 pm

Looks good Nick, fingers crossed :)

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:38 pm

Germany U21 v Moldova U21: 40+ bookings points evens, 50+ 9/4 and 60+ 4/1 all with Skybet.

The jewel in the crown there is the 50+ price (only 2/1 with the same firm in the other places where they offer it, e.g. >45 etc.) and probably due to be trimmed. The other 2 still not bad though and, obviously, the 40+ is the most likely to oblige.

Spread buy at 40 not necessarily a bad choice but fixed odds strike me as the better value.

Ref looks sufficiently "tasty" to get involved with cards here but worth stressing that it could be a damp squib if Germany have it as easy as the markets suggest they might.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/nejc-ka ... saison/ges

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by kenbo » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:02 pm

No cards betting on the accounts I’ve got. *,

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:04 pm

:( Yeah, only one of the spread firms quoting bookings and Sky bet the only fixed odds option I could find.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by nick » Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:19 pm

It seems that many referees have different profiles between their domestic matches and their international ones (Spanish refs in particular).

From what I could find German Daniel Siebert may be a bit tougher on the international front so Finland v Wales has some appeal. I've gone with over 4 cards (Asian) (Bet 365) at 1.90. Have upped stake a little with the comfort of money back if only 4 cards.

I also like the general profile of Hungarian ref Adam Farkas who takes charge (loosely, I hope) of Faroe Islands v Malta. Close games between minnows are frequently prone to ill discipline. No spreads available, so have gone over 59 bookings points at 13/8 (skybet).

Still waiting for spread prices on Russia v Serbia. It's a bit of an obvious one but Scottish ref Willie Collum may tolerate quite a lot. On balance I'll probably swerve anyway. Had considered Latvia v Andorra but very patchy profile for Cypriot ref. As I type Andorrans true to form have already picked up a yellow - I'll probably regret ducking out of this one.

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Re: Football for the season 2020-2021

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:39 pm

Good luck Nick. 40 points in the U21 game so enough for a profit (Sky limiting me on the fancy prices worked in my favour). Spreads would have just seen me break even.

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