Football for the season 2019-20

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:13 pm

Cheers Nick, I did the old >3.5 & >4.5 shuffle again. :thumbs

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:22 pm

The last French League Cup Final ever to be played takes place tomorrow between PSG and Lyon. SPIN's bookings quote of 41-45 looks a tad generous against Spreadex 46-50. There is no Mbappe for PSG after he was assaulted in the recent bad-tempered Cup Final against St Etienne which resulted in a high and very profitable bookings make up.

I reckon there could be a few niggles again tomorrow and ref Jerome Brisard is quite capable of dishing out the cards when neccessary.

PSG v Lyon BUY bookings at 45 (SPIN).

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:01 pm

Thanks Nick, here's my pick of a trawl of the fixed odds prices, for anyone who likes to over complicate things! {8

>40 points 13/10 PP
>4.5 cards 59/50 888
60+ points 5/2 Skybet
Each team 3+ cards 15/2 PP (or 13/2 Hills)
>2 cards in each half 17/2 Hills
Lyon >1 card in each half 12/1 Hills
PSG >1 card in each half 14/1 Hills

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:41 pm

Cardiff not the best team to have on your side corners wise but surely they have to give it a good go tonight if they're going to overturn a 2 goal deficit. Certainly no onus on Fulham to attack. I've backed Cardiff most corners at 19/10 with Sporting Bet and their multis >4.5 at 5/4 with PP.

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:23 pm

Not much today apart from PSG v Lyon tonight, but I thought there were a couple of possibilties in our lockdown saviour (the Belarus League :> ).

Referee Sergei Chistov was a fairly steady 80+ merchant earlier in the season. He has declined slightly, although his last 5 have still been 40, 50, 60, 50 and 95. Today he takes charge of Slutsk v Shaktor Soligorsk. In three of Slutsk's last five matches they alone have accrued 50, 50 and 80 points and joint league leaders Soligorsk have a 40 and a 30 in their last four. Slutsk are flirting with relegation and joint leaders Soligorsk will be desperate to get clear of BATE Borisov. There's a chance this could be lively so I've had a BUY of cross-bookings at 795 (SX).

The later game is Dinamo Brest v Vitebsk. Were it not for the disciplinary record of the home side I'd be a definite bookings seller here because ref Amin Kurgeli is on a definite downward trend. He has only gone above 40 once in his last 9 games (that was only 55). Dinamo Brest's last 5 are 70, 50, 40, 20 and 65, whereas correspondingly Vitebsk are 20, 0, 0, 10 and 30. It's a mid-table game so may stay fairly calm. The bookies have perhaps the wrong favourite to pick up more bookings with Vitebsk odds on. For me there's a bit of value in Dinamo Brest to receive more bookings points at 13/8 (Skybet, Hills).

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:50 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:23 pm
Not much today apart from PSG v Lyon tonight, but I thought there were a couple of possibilties in our lockdown saviour (the Belarus League :> ).

Referee Sergei Chistov was a fairly steady 80+ merchant earlier in the season. He has declined slightly, although his last 5 have still been 40, 50, 60, 50 and 95. Today he takes charge of Slutsk v Shaktor Soligorsk. In three of Slutsk's last five matches they alone have accrued 50, 50 and 80 points and joint league leaders Soligorsk have a 40 and a 30 in their last four. Slutsk are flirting with relegation and joint leaders Soligorsk will be desperate to get clear of BATE Borisov. There's a chance this could be lively so I've had a BUY of cross-bookings at 795 (SX).
Up to 835 now. I've availed myself of Hills prices for >55 and >65 (11/10 and 2/1). Quite a contrast with Sky Bet who go 5/4 for <60 and 4/6 for <70! {8

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:01 am

Only 4 yellows in 90 minutes in the French League Cup Final then it took off in extra time. Pity there wasn't a goal during normal time.

Tiny profit in first Belarus game with cross bookings making up at 800.

The second game was really frustrating since the bet looked home and hosed with Dinamo Brest leading 3 yellows to nil at the 85th minute. Then Vitebsk (losing 1-0) started to get desperate and it got back to 3-2 at the start of injury time. Then a Vitebsk forward overran the ball so it went for a goal kick, collected it and slammed it down on the turf in frustration at himself. The referee thought it was dissent and booked him *, . So the bookings ended up 3-3. Such is the lot of the poor, hapless punter :lol .

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:06 pm

Arsenal v Chelski 17:30
4+ corners each team
@ 1.80

Arsenal avg 6.08
Chelski avg 6.50

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:56 am


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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:25 pm

Backed a couple of eye catching prices in the Ross C v Motherwell game, both with 888.

Mckay at 10/3 and Turnbull at 19/5.

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:22 pm

Brentford v Fulham 19:45
Over 1 card in the match for Brentford
Over 1 card in the match for Fulham
@ 2.00

Brentford v Fulham 19:45
Alternative goal line Over 2.0
@ 1.70

Christian Norgaard
Cyrus Christie
To be booked double
@ 15.00 b3

I expect a few cards tonight , Brentford avg 3.17 a game and Fulham avg 3.54 a game .So with a lot riding on this there will I am sure be some hefty challenges being dished out.
C Norgaard has 10 yellows to his name with an avg of 19% while C Christie only 6 but avg 24% this season.

The Ref M Atkinson avg is 2.88 a game but is more used to the sublime premier league :lol so might find this kick & guts football very different. Oh and ther might be a goal or 3 :)

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:46 pm

peanut wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:22 pm
The Ref M Atkinson avg is 2.88 a game but is more used to the sublime premier league :lol so might find this kick & guts football very different. Oh and ther might be a goal or 3 :)
He's reffed 3 Championship play-off games over the years and has make ups of 70, 50 and 10. There was a penalty in each of these 3 games so the mug in me couldn't resist pen taken at 3/1 and the 7/1 and 10/1 for each of the teams to score one. Kebano worth sticking with anytime at 5/1 (won on him and didn't get matched when he scored in the last 2 games)

Good luck with your bets.

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