Review of Betting Performance

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:37 pm

And another month gone! {8

Just about profitable although a really bad last day could have seen me finish in the red. 262 points overall with 185 from the selling startegy.

A month of two halves in that respect as I was 427 points up at the midpoint before falling back for a while then recovering slightly.

134 bets (most so far) yielded 80 winners, 2 "pushes" and 52 losers. It's the first time the win % has dropped below 60 though, if you factor in the 2 pushes (make up landed on the spread) it's not quite the worst loss % at 38.81.

The biggest developments were the new records set for worst return from 50 and 100 consecutive bets, -285 and -204 respectively (previous lows were -160 and -161).

So positive overall, 3rd best profit of the 6 months I've been doing it and survived the worst sustained run of 50 and 100 bets. Maybe there will be a seasonal element to this, partly because there's no Rugby League which was quite profitable. I also think the lower goals and tries totals expected during the Winter months may mean the sell price moves closer to the true price.

Whatever, on we go, gathering more data and enjoying the ride!

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:09 am

November was kind to me with 3,313 points of profit at 12.3% ROI.

I was helped by a huge volume of test cricket plus the start of the rugby season proper.

Two days into December though and I am down 682 points already!!!

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:28 pm

:) FIve months profit for me but just a daily up or down for you!

Will see how it goes till year end with a view to upping stakes slightly for 2020.

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:46 am

December was poor for me with just 285 points of profit at a lowly 2% ROI.

On the bright side I went from a low point of being 1,209 points down for the month (on the 11th) to ending in profit. I actually got up to 625 profit around Christmas only to be wiped out on the SA v Eng test match, so as late as the 27th I was back behind for the month.

Cricket fixed odds bets were my best performer for the month, particularly the Big Bash which is going very well.

Happy New Year to one and all, see you on the other side.

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:56 pm

:thumbs Cheers Matt and well done. It was a year of two (almost) halves for me. 418 points down after May I finished just over 2000 points up following the key changes of starting selling and seriously cutting back on the goalscorer bets.

3rd best month on the sells, still just shy of the 3000 point barrier and just below the previous high point but obviously happy with how it's gone so far.

The results probably suggest I should stick to selling and bin off backing and buying, perhaps trying some lay bets. Depends how much "fun" i want from picking my bets as opposed to just placing what amounts to fairly automated "trades". Plenty of numbers to crunch over the next few days.

Good luck to all with a new decade of punting. :cheers

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Col
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Col » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:32 pm

Well done chaps :thumbs
All the best for this year.

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:45 am

January was ok but not great. Profit was 1,205 which is fine but ROI was 4.9% which is a bit skinny.

I raced into an early lead and was over 1,300 up by the 11th, only to have a losing run on the cricket of 17/19 bets with reasonable stake son each. On 24th Jan I was back to just 375 up. Some good spread bets on cricket and rugby in the final week saw me back up to a decent number though.

Onward into February!

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:47 pm

Well done Matt, much closer to a break even month for me.

Overall, 17.76 points up.

In terms of my selling bets, it was the first losing month in the 8 months of doing it, so can't really grumble. Even then, it was in the balance right up to the last bet.

The loss on the month was 32 points, finishing 2,907 points up in total.

Like you it was an up and down month. On the 10th I just broke through the 3,000 point barrier for the first time, fell back to 2,747 points then set a new high point before falling back again.

Rugby League back now so should be more bets, hopefully both in total and winning ones!

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:22 am

Good luck Harry.

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:45 pm

Decent month overall, +281.85 points. 3rd best month of 9 in terms of the selling, +483 points. So a case of the objective "system" picks subsidising the subjective ones that involved any skill and judgement on my part! :>

3,390 points up from 9 months of selling so finally (for now, at least) pulled away from the tricky 3,000 point barrier.

A couple of long-term sells looking reasonable at the moment, total season penalties awarded in the Premier League and kicking metres in the 6 Nations.

Certainly a more pleasant month end review than my investments after the Corona virus related battering they've taken! :lol

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:13 am

Not done mine yet but it will make grim reading after the Wasps fiasco from last week!

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 07, 2020 3:15 pm

Not surprising that there's been a pause in updating this given the current situation! Been busy with the spreadsheets today though.

March overall showed a profit of 107 points with a 61 point loss in April and and I'm up 209 points in May to date, thanks to last weekend's Belarusian exploits. 536 points up for the year so hardly pro-punter territory but much better than the alternative.

The "selling fund" showed a 168 point profit in March with "trading suspended" since due to you-know-what! The profit for the year to date is 619 points from 218 bets so my "automated" bets are making up for an overall loss on those bets where I use my "skill, knowledge and experience"! *,

Overall since it started last June the return is 3,558 points from 862 bets with January (-32 points) the only losing month so far. I've carried out a detailed analysis of every type of bet and made some changes to the criteria ready for when sport starts to return. For some bets I've increased the minimum price I'm willing to sell at (it's clear, and perhaps obvious, that it's hard to turn a profit selling at the lower end of the spectrum). Some new bets that I've been paper-trading will go live and RU player try minutes are being benched after showing themselves to be loss making.

I suppose I should also consider increasing the staking although maybe that should wait a while given the changes I've made (and against the backdrop of finding some of my bets getting referred to trader).

Looks like German footy returns soon so it was about time I pulled my finger out and got the planned analysis done (barring NFL for which there is no rush).

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon May 18, 2020 4:34 pm

In a thrilling return to the selling activity, 25 paper trade only bets return a profit of 204 points while the solitary real money bet shows a profit of (drum roll)... 1 point! :lol

Still it's a marathon not a snickers and I am tracking a lot of different new bets purely to see how they perform so it's way too early to risk cash on them.

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:08 pm

Well, May has been a topsy turvy month. I had my most profitable day of the year over the first weekend then gave it all back and more with my heaviest losing day the following weekend. Yesterday I finished the month with what is now the best day by some distance. 1217 points up currently, a gain of 960 points since that bad day 3 weeks ago! {8

The 18 sell bets since the restart showed a loss of 74 points making that the second, and worst, losing month so far but not worth worrying about a sample size of 18 bets. Keep calm and carry on.

There are no individual markets showing a 3 figure loss (bookings was until a big turnaround this weekend put it into the black). Those showing a 3 figure profit (in order of size) are the spread sells, penalty bets, anytime goalscorers and anytime league tryscorers.

The penalty bets are almost all on Belarus games, so are pretty much a direct consequence of lockdown!

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:21 pm

Caught up with the "paper trade" only sell bets I'm tracking, 136 bets in the latter half of May would have shown a profit of 1,600 points! {8

All the markets have been profitable (bookings, hotshots in league and football and goal/try minutes in both sports) and it doesn't seem to matter what the width of the spread is. (Any bets where there was an arb or that were spread free actually made a small loss whereas the bets with wider spreads made all the profit.)

Be interesting (for me at least) to see how this pans out as the sample size builds up.

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:54 am

I'll be watching with interest Harry.

Nothing to report here until cricket starts again.

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:08 pm

Just doing the month end accounts for June.

In terms of real money (rather than paper trades) it's a 500 point profit from 160 bets but, given that includes the 575 point profit realised on the 6 Nations kicking metres sell, that obviously means a net loss of 75 points from all other bets. Given that the sell "system" bets showed a profit of 174 points from 29 bets that means the net loss from all other bets using my "skill and judgement" returned a loss of just under 250 points.

109 back bets lost 314 points, 20 buys showed a profit of 59.5 points and 31 sells showed a profit of 775 points.

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harry_rag
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:17 pm

As for paper trades, I've just had a marathon session updating several day's results into the spreadsheet. It's hard work but I've for a sample size of over 500 and I'm inclined to try and press on to 1000.

No appetite for further analysis today but profit is hovering around the 2000 point mark which was reached in early June and been treading water mostly since.

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