Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:04 pm

Given the current shortage of punting material, a bit gutted to forget for the second week running that there's a Thursday morning NRL game I could have had a look at last night! *,

Had a look at tomorrow's games and found a few bets. Wouldn't normally post my "routine" sells on here but as there's so little going on I might as well do!

Dragons v Panthers: Sold Naden's try minutes at 24 with SX. My ongoing review of betting results may lead me to raise the minimum I sell at to 25, although 24 does seem to be a freakishly profitable price to sell at.

Broncos v Rabbitohs: Sell Broncos hotshots at 42 with SPIN (Oates, Staggs, Arthars, Milford) and Rabbitohs hotshots at 41 with SX (Gagai, Graham, Mitchell, Roberts). Both are sells at what would be the buy price elsewhere. SX have Isaako rather than Milford in the Broncos hotshots but Milford's try minutes are lower than Isaako's so, in theory, selling the less valuable hotshots at the higher price.

Also in that game I backed Cody Walker anytime at 13/5 with PP for what I could get on (now cut to 21/10) and topped up at 5/2 with Fred. Also took what I could get on him scoring a brace at 11/1 Skybet and 10/1 PP. So little to bet on but not stopping the bookies applying their piddling little limits! His try minutes are 17 to buy with SX but 24 with SPIN. I'd say that the latter is a bit too high and the value is with the anytime punt, looking at his stats.

A similar scenario exists with Campbell Graham (as low as 18 and as high as 26) but it's no bet for me there. I'd say, if anything, SX are too low at 18 and a tad generous at 15/8 anytime but not enough margin to tempt me in.

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm

Good luck, Harry :thumbs . My NRL "portfolio" is as follows:

1) Dragons v Panthers over 37.5 match points 5/6 (SX)

2) Warriors v Raiders:
Buy Raiders Supremacy at 13 (SX)
Buy Raiders tries at 4.9 (SX)

3) Titans v Eels:
Titans (-7.5) at 10/11 (Bet 365)
Shaun Lane (Eels) to score a try at 15/4 (SX).

The behind closed doors situations largely negate the home sides' normal advantage, and the Warriors in particular have been compelled to base themselves at Robina (Queensland). Weather is set to be very good for all these fixtures unlike last weekend when there was plenty of rain about for Round 1 of the new season. Hopefully the better sides will be more expansive and flourish in the good conditions.

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:53 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
...................................

1) Dragons v Panthers over 37.5 match points 5/6 (SX)

......................................................
First one goes in as there are 60 match points :) .

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:46 pm

Well done Nick. Small (£12ish) net loss for me across all the bets. Walker obliged (so I guess Paddy are a good judge after all) but Naden scored a try and Broncos hotshots weighed in at 100. Will take a look at tomorrow's games.

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:34 pm

Sharks v Storms: Josh Morris to score a try at 11/4 PP (cut to 23/10 in the wake of my bet) and 13/5 Lads, bit on the brace at 19/1 PP and 18/1 Lads.

Only thing that appeals to me in the 3 games tomorrow.

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:25 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
...........................................

2) Warriors v Raiders:
Buy Raiders Supremacy at 13 (SX)
Buy Raiders tries at 4.9 (SX)

......................................................
Raiders win 20 - 6 so a massive 1 point profit ;-) on supremacy but only notch 4 tries so 0.9 point loss there :> . Overall a modest loss due to respective unit stake size.

Looking for Josh Morris to do the business for you later, Harry '# .

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:25 pm

No joy today, tries in short supply. 3 point loss on a sell of Tupou try mins at 26 in the Roosters game (was allowed that bet despite a 3 point arb existing) and missed a sell of Tedesco in the same game that would have won (rejected and offered reduced stake with a 1 point arb existing).

Will have a look at tomorrow's game later.

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:13 pm

2 games tomorrow actually.

Tigers v Knights: Joey Leilua to score a try at 9/4 with Fred

Titans v Eels: Phillip Sami to score a try at 23/10, a brace at 15/1 and a hat trick at 160/1, all with Lads (boosted from 9/4, 14/1 and 125/1)


Both players where the try minutes prices suggested the anytime price was worth a second look and where I'm happy enough to take the bet after a look at the player's try scoring stats. Might as well do the anytime double too, 9/4 twice with Fred.

Had a look at Waqa Blake at 9/4 in the latter game but you'd have to have a strong reason to expect him to replicate his 2018 form to take the bet so that's a swerve for me unless Nick comes back with a reasoned case for trusting him!

Other bets vaguely on my radar are Eels hotshots at 59 and Sivo's try minutes at 37 in the same game, purely because there are grounds to argue that selling at such exalted prices is a profitable strategy but they're just paper trades for me for now.

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:26 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
....................................

3) Titans v Eels:
Titans (-7.5) at 10/11 (Bet 365)
Shaun Lane (Eels) to score a try at 15/4 (SX).

...............................................
Eels romp to victory by 46 - 6 :) but sadly Shaun Lane is not amongst the tryscorers.

[I've just realised that I typed Titans (-7.5) originally instead of Eels (-7.5) *, . I suspect Titans (-7.5) was nearer 16/1 so if anyone else (apart from Harry) was interested I hope they were not deceived.]

I definitely chose badly between fixed odds and spreads. The fixed odds bets were 22 points and 38 points over what I needed to win those bets, whereas the supremacy bet I chose only finished 1 point above the buy price and would have succeeded anyway on the minus fixed odds handicap.

User avatar
harry_rag
Posts: 13964
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:37 am

Well done Nick, you did a lot better than me so I should’ve just followed you in! Closest I came today was the wrong Leilua scoring.

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:50 pm

As Basil Fawlty would say: "Even that little avenue of pleasure has been cut off".



https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/03/23/nrl ... -pandemic/

:( :( :(

[You'll definitely have to get yourself a dog, Harry ;-) ].

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:17 pm

The Aussie pundits I've read are all expecting a close and enthralling game tomorrow (7.05 am BST) in the NRL between Canberra Raiders and Manly Sea Eagles at Campbelltown Stadium.

The weather forecast is for persistent showers, albeit easing during the afternoon (Aussie KO time is 4.05 pm). However, there is still a 50% chance of rain and any shower that hovers around the stadium during the game could be very heavy and thundery. Perhaps an opportunity for a multi-points sell even without the possible aid of the weather?

Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles SELL match multis at 336 (SPIN).

User avatar
nick
Posts: 4125
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 8:08 am

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:27 am

Canberra Raiders 6 v 14 Manly Sea Eagles.

Multis make up at 96 for 240 points profit :) :) .

User avatar
Col
Site Admin
Posts: 20908
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:07 pm

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by Col » Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:41 am

Well done nick :thumbs

Post Reply