Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

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nick
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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:50 am

Jake Mamo playing in the Championship for Widnes this evening away at Dewsbury, Harry, along with other Warrington dual regs, Dec Patton and Ellis Robson. Have backed Widnes (-7.5) at 5/6 with Unibet.

It looks like West Wales Raiders' new recruits have mostly still not arrived and they could be under the pump again at home to Hunslet this afternoon. Have backed Hunslet (-34) with Bet 365 (skybet are -42).

Have also had a 4-match accumulator that pays nearly 16/1 with Bet 365:

West Wales Raiders v Hunslet (-34) 10/11
Coventry Bears v Newcastle Thunder (-26) 10/11
Halifax v York City Knights 6/4
Dewsbury v Widnes (-8) 10/11

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harry_rag
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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:49 pm

Good luck Nick, pushed for time but on these in 2 of the Superleague games.

Salford v Wakefield:

Evalds to score a try at 11/8 with Hills and Lolohea at 3/1 with Fred

Hull v Catalans:

Kelly to score a try at 9/4 and Shaul at 6/4 (both Fred) and Folau at 2/1 with Lads

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nick
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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:15 am

Well done with Lolohea and Shaul, Harry :thumbs .

Hunslet did the business against West Wales Crusaders :) , but Widnes didn't even win the game let alone cover the handicap *, . I'm annoyed with myself for ignoring my usual cash cow, Toulouse. I thought the cold wet and windy travails of Whitehaven might be a bit too much for them to cover an 18 handicap.

A tricky set of results generally in all 3 divisions.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:45 pm

Here we go again! Leeds v Toronto first up this weekend and just the one bet appeals to me. Briscoe to score a try at 6/4 with Fred.

Odds on in places, which is pushing it, but better than a 40% chance of scoring a try tonight for me.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:45 pm

The bookies have taken no chances on a resounding Leeds win. As ever with RL, the underdog might surprise but can't bring myself to support Toronto in any way. So far I've been impressed with what I've seen of Brad Dwyer's performances. He's 3/1 to score but I prefer a split stake between buying Dwyer's try minutes at 11 and 14 (SMM) with SX.

Good luck with Briscoe, Harry :thumbs .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:08 pm

8(: Well that panned out well for us. In what seemed like a 37 try game, my bloke doesn't score and yours does so far too early! Onwards and hopefully upwards!

St Helens v Huddersfield: Fages 13/5 and McGillvary 21/10 Lads

Both boosted but fine at 5/2 and 2/1 as well.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:22 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:08 pm
8(: Well that panned out well for us. In what seemed like a 37 try game, my bloke doesn't score and yours does so far too early! Onwards and hopefully upwards!

St Helens v Huddersfield: Fages 13/5 and McGillvary 21/10 Lads

Both boosted but fine at 5/2 and 2/1 as well.
Yes, very frustrating - Dwyer try minutes makes up at 4, and in the 79th minute he makes a long break, passes to Myler who selfishly goes for the line himself instead of returning the ball to Dwyer for an easy try *, . Myler's attempt fails!

Castleford's Jesse Sene-Lefao is in their 21-man squad again at Warrington. Hopefully will not be pulled out again at last minute this evening. Have had a fixed odds [LOL] bet on him at 17/2 with SX.

Best Championship bet for me this weekend is Oldham v Dewsbury (-8) (skybet) and in League I also like Barrow Raiders (-26) v Coventry Bears (skybet).

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:06 pm

Good luck Nick, added Turner at 3/1 with Fred as he starts for Cas. Clocked it earlier but waited for teams to be confirmed. A lot of blue elsewhere. Also a bit on 20/1 for 2 or more.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:06 pm
Good luck Nick, added Turner at 3/1 with Fred as he starts for Cas. Clocked it earlier but waited for teams to be confirmed. A lot of blue elsewhere. Also a bit on 20/1 for 2 or more.
Great spot, as Turner came in on the renowned Cas left edge :thumbs :thumbs .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 pm

Cheers Nick. Noticed that SPIN quoted his try minutes but SX didn't, then saw he was in the sqaud. As SPIN went 18-21, 3/1 anytime looked like a big price. Checked his stats and thought it was worth a bet should he start. Luckily I actually remembered and Fred held the price long enough!

Just one play for me today and it's a buy of Hull KR hotshots at 24 with SPIN (Minikin, Kenny-Dowall, Ryan, Brierley). SX are the same price but with Linnett for Ryan. As Ryan's try minutes are a full 7 points higher than Linnett's I'm inclined to think that there's at least a smidgen of value being able to buy at less then the cost of a single try.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:56 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:22 pm
......................................

Best Championship bet for me this weekend is Oldham v Dewsbury (-8) (skybet) and in League I also like Barrow Raiders (-26) v Coventry Bears (skybet).
Oldham 6 v 24 Dewsbury :)
Barrow 50 v 6 Coventry Bears :)


Great Hull KR hotshots for you, Harry. Nailed all 3 tryscorers for a 75 points make up '# '# .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:01 pm

:thumbs Made up at 75 for a 51 point profit.

Well done on the resounding handicap wins Nick. Needless to say, I didn't follow!

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by Col » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:04 pm

Well done chaps :thumbs

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:45 pm

Have had an early sell of match multi-points in tonight's Hull v Warrington clash. Both sides have been patchy and inconsistent so could cancel each other out. Also, if the Met Office is to be believed (quite a big if, admittedly) there is an 80% chance of heavy rain at 8pm in Hull.

If it turns out to be a close tight game and with Hull's Marc Sneyd on the pitch, it's always worth looking at the price for a successful drop goal. I've found between 9/4 (skybet) and 7/2 (Hills).

Hull v Warrington: Sell match multi-points at 408 (SPIN)
Hull v Warrington: Successful Drop Goal 7/2 (Hills).

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:15 pm

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:45 pm
If it turns out to be a close tight game and with Hull's Marc Sneyd on the pitch, it's always worth looking at the price for a successful drop goal. I've found between 9/4 (skybet) and 7/2 (Hills).

Hull v Warrington: Sell match multi-points at 408 (SPIN)
Hull v Warrington: Successful Drop Goal 7/2 (Hills).
That does look a decent bet Nick and I've found 4/1 with Betway. I make it he has 3 this season and Austin has a couple for Warrington as well. As you've sent me down the drop goal rabbit hole I've also had a small amount on these two with Hills; Shaul try and Sneyd drop goal at 20/1 and drop goal in each half at 45/1.

Warrington hotshots a sell for me (hopefully) at 43 with SX (41 to buy elsewhere), Ratchford, Charnley, Lineham and Austin.

Also, Tuimavave at least fair at 11/4 anytime try with 365 and 13/2 1st half try with Lads. I've used the former as a saver for a bet on the latter.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:04 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:45 pm
Have had an early sell of match multi-points in tonight's Hull v Warrington clash. Both sides have been patchy and inconsistent so could cancel each other out. Also, if the Met Office is to be believed (quite a big if, admittedly) there is an 80% chance of heavy rain at 8pm in Hull.

If it turns out to be a close tight game and with Hull's Marc Sneyd on the pitch, it's always worth looking at the price for a successful drop goal. I've found between 9/4 (skybet) and 7/2 (Hills).

Hull v Warrington: Sell match multi-points at 408 (SPIN)
Hull v Warrington: Successful Drop Goal 7/2 (Hills).
Crazy game which led me to close the multis sell at 267 around the 28th minute. For once it was the right decision to take the 141 points profit at that time :) . The shape of the game meant that going for a drop goal was never really viable,

Unlucky with the hotshots sell, Harry. Hull had a mare and it was the straw that broke the camel's back with Lee Radford getting sacked immediately after the final whistle {8 .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:16 pm

Yeah, not the sort of game we needed!

One bet for me tonight, more for an interest than out of massive conviction that it's clear value.

Willie Isa to score a try at 11/2 with Lads.

Also give me an opportunity to trot out the joke about his name; I invested in one of those once but didn't achieve the amount of growth I was hoping for! :lol

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:32 pm

I'm hoping for a bit of "growth" this evening but not from an ISA :> .

Hunslet (+36.5) away at Featherstone in the Cup ;-) .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:37 pm

Unlucky Nick, just seen the score for that one. In search of what feels like an elusive winner, I'm on Lomax for Saints today, 7/4 to score a try with Lads and 5/1 to do so in the first half at 5/1 Lads.

On a more mechanical note, I'm short of both teams' hotshots, Cas at 36 and Saints at 49. So if Lomax could oblige early and the rest of them not bother than would be great!

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:54 pm

Cheers, Harry - 1 try too many conceded by Hunslet at the very end.

Can't get any vibes for this afternoon's match. Really weird that it is being played against the current backdrop. Good luck with your bet(s) :thumbs .

Have resorted over the weekend to some decent match multi sells on the opening round NRL games to keep the wolf from the door, but in reality I'm in shutdown (not quite self-isolation ;-) ) mode now.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:04 pm

Given the current shortage of punting material, a bit gutted to forget for the second week running that there's a Thursday morning NRL game I could have had a look at last night! *,

Had a look at tomorrow's games and found a few bets. Wouldn't normally post my "routine" sells on here but as there's so little going on I might as well do!

Dragons v Panthers: Sold Naden's try minutes at 24 with SX. My ongoing review of betting results may lead me to raise the minimum I sell at to 25, although 24 does seem to be a freakishly profitable price to sell at.

Broncos v Rabbitohs: Sell Broncos hotshots at 42 with SPIN (Oates, Staggs, Arthars, Milford) and Rabbitohs hotshots at 41 with SX (Gagai, Graham, Mitchell, Roberts). Both are sells at what would be the buy price elsewhere. SX have Isaako rather than Milford in the Broncos hotshots but Milford's try minutes are lower than Isaako's so, in theory, selling the less valuable hotshots at the higher price.

Also in that game I backed Cody Walker anytime at 13/5 with PP for what I could get on (now cut to 21/10) and topped up at 5/2 with Fred. Also took what I could get on him scoring a brace at 11/1 Skybet and 10/1 PP. So little to bet on but not stopping the bookies applying their piddling little limits! His try minutes are 17 to buy with SX but 24 with SPIN. I'd say that the latter is a bit too high and the value is with the anytime punt, looking at his stats.

A similar scenario exists with Campbell Graham (as low as 18 and as high as 26) but it's no bet for me there. I'd say, if anything, SX are too low at 18 and a tad generous at 15/8 anytime but not enough margin to tempt me in.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm

Good luck, Harry :thumbs . My NRL "portfolio" is as follows:

1) Dragons v Panthers over 37.5 match points 5/6 (SX)

2) Warriors v Raiders:
Buy Raiders Supremacy at 13 (SX)
Buy Raiders tries at 4.9 (SX)

3) Titans v Eels:
Titans (-7.5) at 10/11 (Bet 365)
Shaun Lane (Eels) to score a try at 15/4 (SX).

The behind closed doors situations largely negate the home sides' normal advantage, and the Warriors in particular have been compelled to base themselves at Robina (Queensland). Weather is set to be very good for all these fixtures unlike last weekend when there was plenty of rain about for Round 1 of the new season. Hopefully the better sides will be more expansive and flourish in the good conditions.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:53 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
...................................

1) Dragons v Panthers over 37.5 match points 5/6 (SX)

......................................................
First one goes in as there are 60 match points :) .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:46 pm

Well done Nick. Small (£12ish) net loss for me across all the bets. Walker obliged (so I guess Paddy are a good judge after all) but Naden scored a try and Broncos hotshots weighed in at 100. Will take a look at tomorrow's games.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:34 pm

Sharks v Storms: Josh Morris to score a try at 11/4 PP (cut to 23/10 in the wake of my bet) and 13/5 Lads, bit on the brace at 19/1 PP and 18/1 Lads.

Only thing that appeals to me in the 3 games tomorrow.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:25 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
...........................................

2) Warriors v Raiders:
Buy Raiders Supremacy at 13 (SX)
Buy Raiders tries at 4.9 (SX)

......................................................
Raiders win 20 - 6 so a massive 1 point profit ;-) on supremacy but only notch 4 tries so 0.9 point loss there :> . Overall a modest loss due to respective unit stake size.

Looking for Josh Morris to do the business for you later, Harry '# .

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:25 pm

No joy today, tries in short supply. 3 point loss on a sell of Tupou try mins at 26 in the Roosters game (was allowed that bet despite a 3 point arb existing) and missed a sell of Tedesco in the same game that would have won (rejected and offered reduced stake with a 1 point arb existing).

Will have a look at tomorrow's game later.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:13 pm

2 games tomorrow actually.

Tigers v Knights: Joey Leilua to score a try at 9/4 with Fred

Titans v Eels: Phillip Sami to score a try at 23/10, a brace at 15/1 and a hat trick at 160/1, all with Lads (boosted from 9/4, 14/1 and 125/1)


Both players where the try minutes prices suggested the anytime price was worth a second look and where I'm happy enough to take the bet after a look at the player's try scoring stats. Might as well do the anytime double too, 9/4 twice with Fred.

Had a look at Waqa Blake at 9/4 in the latter game but you'd have to have a strong reason to expect him to replicate his 2018 form to take the bet so that's a swerve for me unless Nick comes back with a reasoned case for trusting him!

Other bets vaguely on my radar are Eels hotshots at 59 and Sivo's try minutes at 37 in the same game, purely because there are grounds to argue that selling at such exalted prices is a profitable strategy but they're just paper trades for me for now.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by nick » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:26 am

nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
....................................

3) Titans v Eels:
Titans (-7.5) at 10/11 (Bet 365)
Shaun Lane (Eels) to score a try at 15/4 (SX).

...............................................
Eels romp to victory by 46 - 6 :) but sadly Shaun Lane is not amongst the tryscorers.

[I've just realised that I typed Titans (-7.5) originally instead of Eels (-7.5) *, . I suspect Titans (-7.5) was nearer 16/1 so if anyone else (apart from Harry) was interested I hope they were not deceived.]

I definitely chose badly between fixed odds and spreads. The fixed odds bets were 22 points and 38 points over what I needed to win those bets, whereas the supremacy bet I chose only finished 1 point above the buy price and would have succeeded anyway on the minus fixed odds handicap.

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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:37 am

Well done Nick, you did a lot better than me so I should’ve just followed you in! Closest I came today was the wrong Leilua scoring.

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