Other Rugby Competitions

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:50 pm

Well done with Tyrer, Harry :thumbs .

Only 6 points at HT so the under 45.5 came in, and the match multis made up at 180 for a 304 points profit :) :) .

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm

Well done Nick, Tyrer my worst result due to limited stakes! *,

Did have a bit on Halifax when I spotted Fred had them at 6/4 as an enhanced offer.

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:13 pm

Well done nick :clap

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:06 pm

Cheetahs/Munster: Sold both hotshots in this game with SPIN.

Cheetahs at 60: 3 in common here (Smith, Small-Smith and Volmink) with SPIN having Dweba and SX Fouche. Fouche quoted at 13-16 by both firms, Dweba in the front 5. Both 2/1 best fixed odds. SX go 55-59. I think the 60 is a little high but not really a standout, unlike;

Munster at 41: SX just 28-31, Sweetnam, Scannell and Daly in with both firms, SPIN have Haly rather than Goggin. Daly perhaps a more likely tryscorer than Gogging but not enough to justify anything like a 10 point swing in the price.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:08 pm

Late Smith try turns a 10 point profit into a 15 point loss on the Cheetahs hotshots (with Dweba, who wasn't in the SX hotshots, scoring one as well) but a 41 point profit on the Munster hotshots with their only try scored by Goggin who was only in the SX quartet. 26 point net profit better than nowt.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:34 pm

Two sells for me in the Edinburgh/Dragons game, van der Merwe at 33 and Scott at 21, both with SX.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:33 pm

Sold Leinster hotshots at 58 with SPIN (Kearney, McFadden, Henshaw and Kelleher).

Can't get a value greater than 49 however I crunch their try minutes prices. SX go just 48-52 with Cronin in for Henshaw. No try minutes quote for Cronin as he's in the front 5 (as high as 42 to buy) and he's a best price evens anytime. Henshaw ranges from 8/5 to 7/2 but is easy to back at >2/1 and his try minutes are no higher than 12-15.

It's quite possible the 4 named player run riot and cost me money (3 tries or more would see to that) but I think this price is too high and by more than the average margin that I tend to see.

Apart from that, just a couple of paper trade sells for noting; Leinster front 5 try mins at 38 and, in England, Gloucester sub try mins at 33.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:27 am

Perfect weather conditions in Buenos Aires for Super Rugby Jaguares v Lions. Both sides only know one way to play so it should be attack/attack.

Had a modest buy of match multis at 742 (SPIN). [That is the SX sell price].

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:35 pm

In tonight's Premiership Cup semi-final the hosts Sale are putting out another strong side against a weak-looking Saracens whose side is full of their Academy players. Conditions should be perfect, and there's a chance that Sale's South African contingent plus the likes of Denny Solomona and Marland Yarde could have a field day.

I wanted a decent bet on over 4.5 Sale tries at 4/5 but have only been allowed the massive sum of £11.40, so have also had a buy of Sale tries at 5.1.

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:07 am

Unlucky nick. I was away but would have gone with something similar for sure.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am

Matt wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:07 am
Unlucky nick. I was away but would have gone with something similar for sure.
3 tries in opening 20 mins had me salivating, Matt, but Sale declared after that and only notched one more {:( .

Despite the terrible weather today in Dublin I think there are one or two tryscorer bets for Leinster v Cheetahs in the Pro 14. Cheetahs will feel they are on another planet in the likely terrible conditions compared to their fast, dry, hot Bloemfontein. Leinster's pack could have a field day so I'm immediately drawn to the scoring records of their back row and hooker. The two players I like are Max Deegan (8) and Ronan Kelleher (2).

According to Wikipaedia Deegan has 59 tries in 168 appearances for Leinster. Many of his games have not been at no. 8, but he has recently scored twice against Ulster, twice against Connacht and once against Lyon from that position. Kelleher has had a spell of absence but had a purple patch back in the Autumn with a hat-trick in one game. He has apparently scored 7 tries in his 10 Leinster appearances.

I've backed Max Deegan at 9/4 (Bet 365) and Ronan Kelleher at 2/1 (SX).

Given that Deegan and Kelleher both appear in SPIN's hotshots, along with wingers McFadden and Dave Kearney, I've had a modest buy at 41. Spreadex stick traditionally to backs for their hotshots priced at only 20-23. [This is available FreeSports - channel 422].

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:19 pm

nick wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am
I've backed Max Deegan at 9/4 (Bet 365) and Ronan Kelleher at 2/1 (SX).

Given that Deegan and Kelleher both appear in SPIN's hotshots, along with wingers McFadden and Dave Kearney, I've had a modest buy at 41. Spreadex stick traditionally to backs for their hotshots priced at only 20-23. [This is available FreeSports - channel 422].
This will be interesting then as I've sold the same hotshots at 37! 0^

I'll be honest and say that it looks like a seriously awry price to me, not just a routine sell but one in the top 10% of clearest value. Obviously events may go on to not support that view and reward you but the price seems high to me.

Not sure if you can make a case for buying their front 5 minutes at 19 but, for me, the hotshots price is still too high even if Kelleher alone was worth 19 in the try minutes market.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:20 pm

ps - should have checked with each other first and we could have both bet at the midpoint! ;-)

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:15 pm

nick wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am


................................ Leinster's pack could have a field day so I'm immediately drawn to the scoring records of their back row and hooker................................................................................
4 tries from Leinster's back row and hooker. Unfortunately for me the one member of the back row who did not score was Deegan, although Kelleher went over just on half time :) . Leinster looked like romping away leading 36-0 after 51 mins - then did not add another point :snooze .

Well done with the hotshot sells, Harry, although you must have been pretty nervous if watching the game ;-) .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:45 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:19 pm
Not sure if you can make a case for buying their front 5 minutes at 19
Made up at 75! *,

Cheers Nick and well done on Kelleher. Wasn't watching but nervously keeping an eye on my phone while out and about!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm

Tomorrow's Force v Brumbies game has thrown me a bit of a puzzle. First thing to catch my eye was that SX quote Brumbies hotshots at 38-42 while SPIN go 57-61. Either that was going to be a chasm of an arb or there was a difference in the players, which turned out to be the case.

Both include the trio of Banks. Kata and Wright but SX add Kuridrani (try mins as high as 13 to buy) while SPIN favour Faingaa (one of the front 5 who are as high as 27 to buy). Faingaa has 20 tries in 33 career games and, looking at the other 4, pretty much represents the whole of that try minutes price. If you use the "standard formula" to convert try minutes prices to hotshots then the SX price looks about right but, even allowing for the impressive Faingaa being worth the whole 27, the SPIN sell price looks at least 7 points too high. I've ended up having 2 slightly contradictory bets.

Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out.

Let the cards fall how they may! :)

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free Made up at 0 :(

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out. Made up at 25 :thumbs

Let the cards fall how they may! :)
One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am
............................................

One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!
No comment :lol :lol .

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:07 am

nick wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
..............................

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).
Multis make up at 144 for 235 points profit :) .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:13 am

:thumbs Well done Nick. Even as a confirmed seller now I still have a blind spot about selling multis markets. Something to work on I think.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 am

Weather was really bad, Harry - that's the key for me usually.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/andrew-mcc ... 4b4ad92f4c

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:29 pm

Lovely stuff nick :clap

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm

The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:38 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm
The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.
Be rude not to follow up with a buy at 7 with SPIN tonight, just in case it's one of those "delayed reaction" winners! :)

Certainly knocks the fixed odds prices (13/5 best) into a cocked hat.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:53 pm

There are "routine" sells and there are "interesting" sells and I try and only post the latter. There's one tonight in the Sale v Quins cup game, with hotshots at 31-35 SX but 44-48 with SPIN. Unsurprisingly, there's a difference between the 4 players each firm has selected, with SX choosing Hammersley and SPIN opting for van Rensburg. The other 3 players with each firm are Solomana, James and Yarde.

Whilst Hammersley is worth less based on the respective try minutes quotes, there's not a huge amount in it. He's pitched at 6-8 while van Rensburg is 10-12 (based on best prices). If I use the try mins prices to estimate fair hotshots prices I get 32.6 for SX and 34.9 for SPIN.

All in all, Sale hotshots look a value sell at 44 with SPIN

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