Football for the season 2019-20

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:35 pm

Well done gents :thumbs

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:02 pm

Harry :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:41 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:18 pm
Have taken a closer look at the total season penalties market and reached a decision.

I've decided to sell total penalties awarded at 132 with SX (had to sell converted at 102 and unconverted at 30 as they're not quoting a combined price). I'm going with the "sell hype" theory which tends to do well more often than not, I just don't think the combined effect of VAR and the new handball rule should have pushed the figure anywhere near as high as that.

Over the last 10 years, the number awarded has ranged from 80 to 106 and averaged 94. There's no indication of VAR alone having much effect on penalties in the other 4 major leagues and the suggestion seems to be it will be used sparingly here, only where there's believed to have been a clear error made. There's also signs that the interpretation of the handball rule will not be as strict as we have seen elsewhere with Mike RIley saying he doesn't think there will be much of a change to how it has been interpreted for the past few seasons.

We'll see what happens but I'm happy to be short of that price.
87 penalties in total so far (67 scored and 20 missed). I've taken the opportunity to close out penalties scored at 68.75 as there's so little downside to doing so. Profit on that element of the bet 33.25 times stake. No option to close out the missed penalties element so I've had small doubles on penalty missed across all 10 games! {8

Happy to have called it right, and to avoid the potential mild discomfort of a penalty glut on the last day of the season!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:54 pm

Having read Kevin Pullein's article on last day of season games involving team's battling to avoid relegation v teams with nothing to play for I've had a couple of bets involving Villa, Bournemouth and Watford. I've done a trixie on them all to get most corners with 888 at 2.18 for Villa and 2.6 for the others. Also done a treble on them all covering their multis line which pays 7/1 with PP (5.5 for Villa and 4.5 for the others).

Apparently such teams gain 59% of the corners in these games whereas they'd normally gain a bit less than 50%.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:18 am

harry_rag wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:54 pm
Having read Kevin Pullein's article on last day of season games involving team's battling to avoid relegation v teams with nothing to play for I've had a couple of bets involving Villa, Bournemouth and Watford. I've done a trixie on them all to get most corners with 888 at 2.18 for Villa and 2.6 for the others. Also done a treble on them all covering their multis line which pays 7/1 with PP (5.5 for Villa and 4.5 for the others).

Apparently such teams gain 59% of the corners in these games whereas they'd normally gain a bit less than 50%.
:cheers Cheers Kev! Most corners trixie lands, returning 8.2 times stake. The 7/1 multis treble lost because of one Bournemouth corner too few. Even the number they did get would have been adequate of they'd managed the 2nd one before the break.

Another 10 points profit from the sell of missed penalties (less the small loss on the fixed odds cover bet) makes for a decent day and, overall, it was the right call to close out the penalties sell.

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:33 am

Nice one Harry :thumbs

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:46 am

Well done, Harry :clap .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:46 pm

Östersunds v Helsingborg 18:00 (Swed)
20+ booking pts each team
@ 2.75
Home team average 2.60 cards at home and over 2.0 overall. While the away team average over 2.0 away and 2.30 overall.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:20 pm

Cheers guys.
peanut wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:46 pm
Östersunds v Helsingborg 18:00 (Swed)
20+ booking pts each team
@ 2.75
Home team average 2.60 cards at home and over 2.0 overall. While the away team average over 2.0 away and 2.30 overall.
Having had a look at this game I'm going to have a rare bookings bet on a game where there are no spread prices for me to factor in to my considerations. I can see the scope for cards with the ref involved (Pandzic) and the teams looking primed for a relegation battle but I find the 20+ each price a little skinny compared to other options (given that, if there are only 4 or 5 yellows, you will need to get the optimum split).

I've favoured a bet on each of >40 points at 6/4 with PP and >4.5 cards at 43/20 with 888 (50+ at 2/1 Skybet being a viable alternative if you can't access either of those).

Good luck to us both, you win the day if it's exactly 20 points each otherwise we can hopefully both get a return!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:44 pm

Northern Ireland cup game (kicks off at 4) between Ballymena and Coleraine. Ref Keith Kennedy (used to play Curly Watts in Corrie, believe it or not*) likes a penalty looking at his league stats. First game for all concerned after lockdown which does seem to have been a recipe for pens as everyone gets back up to speed.

11/4 penalty taken Hills and buy pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN.

* Not! :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:45 pm

Arch local rivals meet up for the first game since lockdown: Ballymena v Coleraine is the Cup semi final which kicks off at 4 pm at crowdless Windsor Park. I hope that will not take the fire out of the game. From what I could find there have been 3 red cards in the last 5 meetings - 4 if you include the red card for Ballymena's manager last Boxing Day. The referee is Keith Kennedy who has awarded 8 pens in his 10 NI League games this season and can dish out the cards when necessary (even in Northern Ireland where I've seen GBH treated as a bit of fun by many refs who need a player to produce a flick knife from his shorts before a yellow card is timidly shown :lol ). I've done the following:

Ballymena v Coleraine

BUY cross-bookings at 700 (SX) and BUY bookings at 51 (SPIN)
BUY Penalty Performance at 6.5 (SPIN)
BUY Aaron Canning (Coleraine) Goal Mins at 6 and Goal Rush at 3 (SPIN)

Can't get any serious fixed odds at these prices but Hills have red card at 7/2 and penalty to be taken at 11/4. Also have Canning to score anytime at 6/1. He is a lanky centre back who gets up for set pieces and seems a fairly regular scorer including a looping header at Ballymena on Boxing Day. Stephen Lowery scored a penalty that day in the 2-0 win for Coleraine.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:46 pm

Good luck Harry :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:54 pm

peanut wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Good luck Harry :)
And Nick of course! :)

Some seriously crossed posts there. Canning 15/2 PP. They have Doherty (or is it Doughty) at 3/1 which looks decent though hardly allowing me much on. 8(:

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:58 pm

^/

BBC (Northern Ireland) Sky 972.

Let the violence begin ;-) ;-) .

[Canning not in the team {:( ]. Now going for Stephen Lowry goal mins buy at 8.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:02 pm

SX up late, a couple of eyecatchers, they just go 5 for Doherty's goal minutes but 17 with SPIN, they go 12 Winchester who was only 6 (up to 9 now) with SPIN.

I had what was allowed on the 8/1 for the latter with PP.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:15 pm

6 point arb on the bookings in the later game between Cliftonville and Glentoran should you wish to try and find the value!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:52 pm

nick wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:45 pm
....................................

Ballymena v Coleraine

BUY cross-bookings at 700 (SX) and BUY bookings at 51 (SPIN)
BUY Penalty Performance at 6.5 (SPIN)
BUY Aaron Canning (Coleraine) Goal Mins at 6 and Goal Rush at 3 (SPIN)

Can't get any serious fixed odds at these prices but Hills have red card at 7/2 and penalty to be taken at 11/4. Also have Canning to score anytime at 6/1. He is a lanky centre back who gets up for set pieces and seems a fairly regular scorer including a looping header at Ballymena on Boxing Day. Stephen Lowery scored a penalty that day in the 2-0 win for Coleraine.
7 yellows split 4 x 3, so decent profits of 500 points on cross bookings and 19 points on straight bookings :) :) . No penalties awarded and no start for Canning.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:12 pm

:thumbs Well done Nick.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:21 pm

No Mitrovic for Fulham I see and the markets aren't expecting a goalfest. A couple of 5/1 shots will do me for an interest (both a bit bigger on BF) Hoilett for Cardiff and Kebano for Fulham.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:38 pm

Nick :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:00 am

harry_rag wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:21 pm
No Mitrovic for Fulham I see and the markets aren't expecting a goalfest. A couple of 5/1 shots will do me for an interest (both a bit bigger on BF) Hoilett for Cardiff and Kebano for Fulham.
Kebano obliges; 1 out of 2 not bad at those prices.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:17 pm

Good shooting, Harry :thumbs .

Not much today but I did notice the likelihood of goals in the Norwegian Div 1 between HamKam v Ranheim. The home side are bottom with 4 straight defeats with 19 goals featuring in those games (7f 12a). The visitors' games have also had 19 goals but the opposite (12f 7a). I've gone with over 4.5 match goals at 5/2 (skybet) which is a bit of value and would have copped in 5 out of the 8 games these teams have played this season.

Ivar Ronning has scored 4 times so far for Ranheim and defender Daniel Kvande has also been on the scoresheet. I've noticed that HamKam have been susceptible to goals from defenders so far. Being a bit bullish I've had a couple of goalscorer bets with Unibet:

Ivar Ronning to score 2+ goals at 15/2
Daniel Kvande to score 2+ goals at 60/1.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm

Good luck Nick, had a bit of >3.5 and 4.5.

Parma v Atalanta: Kucka anytime at 23/4 with 888. Not sure he should be as big as 5/1, let alone bigger.

I'll spare you an elaborate joke about him thriving under high pressure! :>

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:37 pm

nick wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:17 pm
Not much today but I did notice the likelihood of goals in the Norwegian Div 1 between HamKam v Ranheim. The home side are bottom with 4 straight defeats with 19 goals featuring in those games (7f 12a). The visitors' games have also had 19 goals but the opposite (12f 7a). I've gone with over 4.5 match goals at 5/2 (skybet) which is a bit of value and would have copped in 5 out of the 8 games these teams have played this season.
:thumbs Cheers Nick. 5th goal arrives with over 20 minutes to spare.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:39 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm
Good luck Nick, had a bit of >3.5 and 4.5.

Parma v Atalanta: Kucka anytime at 23/4 with 888. Not sure he should be as big as 5/1, let alone bigger.

I'll spare you an elaborate joke about him thriving under high pressure! :>
Cheers Harry. Good luck with your Parma goalscorer :thumbs .

The 5th goal in Norway arrives in the 66th minute :) . Ronning opened the scoring to give hope of a brace but has now been substituted.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:40 pm

Crossing posts yet again :lol :lol .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:28 pm

No joy with Kucka. Inter v Napoli and Sanchez and Candreva both caught my eye for potential scorer or assist bets.

Can't quite bring myself to back Sanchez to score at 23/10 but Candreva at 7.6 on BF is very appealing.

Sanchez assist at 12/5 Lads just about tempted me in and 19/5 Candreva, again, appeals even more. (Both have similar assist minute quotes with SPIN, Sanchez a couple of points higher.)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am

Another game with goals potential is in the Faroe islands between B36 Torshavn and Vikingur Gota. Although only one place above their visitors in the table, B36 are 8 points ahead and do seem to be on a much better run of form. Their only reverse was last time out at the runaway league leaders. B36's previous 4 games had seen them score 16 goals, including 6 in their only home match in that run.

Whilst Vikingur's form looks reasonable it is all against teams below them, including against the two basement teams who are both winless in their combined 28 games. Vikingur came up short and lost against 3rd placed Klaksvik whom B36 beat 6-2. I've gone with the following:

B36 Torshavn v Vikingur over 4.5 match goals 5/2 (Unibet)
BUY B36 Torshavn Goal Rush at 29 (SX)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:55 pm

nick wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am
..........................

B36 Torshavn v Vikingur over 4.5 match goals 5/2 (Unibet)
BUY B36 Torshavn Goal Rush at 29 (SX)
Nice result with 4 goals for B36 Torshavn in a game of 6 goals :) :) .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:02 pm

Well done Nick :thumbs

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