Football for the season 2019-20

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:06 pm

Good luck Nick, sounds intriguing. Goals down to 0.65 with SPIN now and goal rush is 7 with both firms.

Second game today is Isloch Minsk v Rukh Brest with 10cc's favourite Belarusian ref in charge (Shimusik)! :>

It's a solid mid-band play for me, 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills

After that we have Slavia Mozyr v Neman Grodno reffed by Shcherbakov which appeals for pens and would suggest a high card bet if any.

I've bought pen goal mins at 16 with SX and backed pen taken at 2/1 Hills, along with >60 points at 11/8 PP.

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:16 pm

Cheers, Harry and good luck with your bets :thumbs .

SPIN had no Belarus Cup markets until very recently so I've had a top up on Baranovici's goal rush at 7 with them. Interestingly they have priced up the game I was looking to get after. However a supremacy buy at 7.15 {8 for FC Gomel over BGU Minsk does not really appeal!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:06 pm

Hardly a goal fest in Baranevichi but a least the solitary goal went with the home side :) .

SPIN very late putting up market for Pershiy Region v Lokomotiv Gomel but had a buy of L Gomel goals at 4.55 {8 .

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:00 pm

Borussia Dortmund v Hertha Berlin

2+ goals in match
2+ cards in match
7+ free kicks - Hertha
5+ goal kicks - Hertha
3+ corners - Hertha

Multi @ 6/4
B365

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:44 pm

nick wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:06 pm
................................

SPIN very late putting up market for Pershiy Region v Lokomotiv Gomel but had a buy of L Gomel goals at 4.55 {8 .
Pershiy Region 0 v 15 Lokomotiv Gomel :) :) . I'll settle for 10.45 goals profit 8] !8D .

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:12 pm

Well done Nick, I’m guessing a goal rush buy wouldn’t have been palatable in that one! :thumbs

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:29 pm

Nice one nick :clap

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:10 pm

Nick :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:19 am

Just done a hasty trawl of the 4 early games in Germany.

2 of the 3 B2 games (at Erzgebirge and Hannover) appeal as solid 4-6 plays, at 23/20 and 11/8 respectively with Hills.

In the top flight game at Werder Bremen, Steinhaus is reffing her first game since the restart. Her 21 games exhibit a solid low cards tendency and I've split my stake across <50 at 10/11 PP, <40 at 13/8 Sky Bet and <4 cards at 23/20 Hills.

Only 4 out of those 21 games hit 50 or more (2 50s and a 60) and 15 of them saw under 40 and <4 cards.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:50 pm

Looks like more and more firms are starting to reduce their coverage of the Belarus footy. Only bet I can find today is 60+ bookings points at evens with Sky Bet in the middle game (BB v DM). Looks decent with Sevostyanik in charge.

If you look at it simplistically we're "due" a glut of pens today after a dearth so far this weekend but only Stetsurin (last game) looks a decent candidate and it's a struggle to find appealing prices. I might just do a mug trixie at best prices so I'm not crying if there are loads!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:03 pm

Dipping into the Bulgarian First Division, Tsarko Selo v Slavia Sofia. The team stats seem to suggest a few cards with the referee, Nikola Popov, not unwilling to to comply. Sadly no spreads available so have backed over 5.5 cards at 13/10 (Unibet).

Slavia Sofia do seem to concede plenty of corners e.g. 17 in last 2 away games but home side do not gain that many. Was tempted by over 5 home corners at 33/20 but decided to swerve. [No doubt corners will come in and cards fall short :> ].

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:21 pm

nick wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:03 pm
Dipping into the Bulgarian First Division, Tsarko Selo v Slavia Sofia. The team stats seem to suggest a few cards with the referee, Nikola Popov, not unwilling to to comply. Sadly no spreads available so have backed over 5.5 cards at 13/10 (Unibet).

Slavia Sofia do seem to concede plenty of corners e.g. 17 in last 2 away games but home side do not gain that many. Was tempted by over 5 home corners at 33/20 but decided to swerve. [No doubt corners will come in and cards fall short :> ].
7 yellow cards :) [and also 6 home corners in a 3-1 away win for Slavia Sofia].

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:50 pm

:thumbs Nick

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:46 am

:clap Well done Nick, must have been too busy playing chess to risk jinxing that one for you!

Getting hard to find a bet in Belarus as the markets are drying up and it's getting a bit hectic anyway as more and more sport returns. First game today is a solid low bookings bet with Tsinkevich in charge. I'm on various under lines from 60 down to 40 with Hills, Paddy and Sky Bet.

The later game would be a rock solid 4-6 cards bet (landed in 21/35 games reffed by Koronets) but no firms have bookings prices yet for this game.

Both games look good for penalties (though there were none at all last weekend) but there are hardly any prices and none that appeal. All very frustrating but it was fun while it lasted!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:52 pm

3 games in Germany today, 1 in the top flight and 2 in B2.

Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig: Ref Welz was an overs winner for me previously and I'm happy to go again at 13/10 for >40 points with Lads. Bit better than the 46 you can buy at and there's a 2 point arb at the moment.

D Dresden v Hamburg: Schroder a solid middle band ref at either level so 6/5 for 4-6 cards shown is a solid selection for me.

SV Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld: Aarnink looks a bet low ref but the prices don't appeal. 12 pens in 11 out of his 26 last B2 games means a buy of pen goal minutes at 15 with SX appeals. Saver on pen taken at 5/2 888 or Sky Bet.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:21 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:52 pm
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig: Ref Welz was an overs winner for me previously and I'm happy to go again at 13/10 for >40 points with Lads. Bit better than the 46 you can buy at and there's a 2 point arb at the moment.
Bought hotshots in that game at 41 with SPIN as it looks like clear value. 25 points per goal by Dabbur, Baumgartner, Werner and Schick. Let’s just say there’s an unusual difference of opinion between them and the rest of the market and that’s probably the biggest understatement you’ll encounter this weekend!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:25 am

Bayer Leverkusen
Real Sociedad
Win double @ 6/4
:)

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:24 pm

The top of the table clash this afternoon in Belarus BATE Borisov v Shakter Soligorsk may produce a few more bookings than Spreadex believe - especially for the away team. Their penultimate away game saw Soligorsk accrue 55 points, and referee Sevostyanik has shown them 3 and 7 yellows respectively in games he has officiated this season. He also showed 3 yellows to BATE in a Cup match - the only time this ref has had the whistle in a BATE game. I expect the home team to have far more of the game and therefore will just bet Soligorsk.

BUY Soligorsk bookings at 28 (SX).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:34 pm

nick wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:24 pm
BUY Soligorsk bookings at 28 (SX).
:thumbs Hard to find a fixed odds alternative for this but splitting your stakes across evens for them to get 2-3 cards and 12/5 for >3 with Hills is a reasonable proxy. 2-3 cards a push and 4+ a profit.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:16 pm

4 yellows for Soligorsk for 12 points profit :) .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:18 pm

:cheers Optimum outcome for those who took the mooted fixed odds route.

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:01 pm

Nice one :clap

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:24 pm

In 13 Turkish Super Lig matches this season referee Abdulkadir Bitigen has gone over 49 points 10 times. The other 3 totals were 30 and 40 twice. He has gone over 50 points 8 times. Tonight he takes charge of Sivassipor v Denilzipor. Spreadex have priced at 48 - 52 and a straight bookings buy is tempting. The best fixed odds I can find are with skybet, but I've had a small buy of cross-bookings. Their penultimate home game saw Sivassipor collect 50 points and their last away game saw Denilzipor with 40 points. There seems to be plenty riding on this match particularly for the home side who have title aspirations.

Sivassipor v Denilzipor BUY cross-bookings at 695 (SX).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:50 pm

nick wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:24 pm
...............................

Sivassipor v Denilzipor BUY cross-bookings at 695 (SX).
Closed at 1450 with 65 bookings points around the 80th minute. Profit of 755 points :) .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:56 pm

Excellent!!
Well done Nick :clap :clap :clap

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peanut
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:18 pm

:thumbs Nick

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:27 pm

:clap At the bet but *, at not seeing it earlier!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Hoofhearted » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:58 am

Great call Nic :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by charliepie » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:36 pm

Nice one nick! Bet of the year so far!

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Matt
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Matt » Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:12 am

:clap

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Matt » Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:13 am

Villa look a huge price to me tonight. DNB @ 2.46.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:46 pm

Cheers, lads :thumbs - although I must reiterate that the unit stake is not that great when buying at 695 :> .

Having had a fair bit of joy lately with delving into areas where I don't usually bother, I'll put my head above the parapet and mention this evening's Danish play-offs game Copenhagen v Aalborg at 7 pm. The ref is the exotically-named Benjamin Willaume-Jantzen. His last 7 League games have seen him produce 6 red cards. In these games he has had make ups of 100, 120, 75 and 75 with a minimum of 30.

Copenhagen have been very well behaved over their last 5 matches only collecting a total of 4 yellows. Aalborg have picked up 140 points over their last 5. The home side are clear favourites and so I'm placing my emphasis on Aalborg to bring home the bacon :> . In both their league games this season against Copenhagen both Lucas Anderson and Magnus Christensen were booked each time.

Although tempting to have a buy of 50-ups (available at 9) in case things get really tasty, I think I'll swerve, since I feel Copenhagen are likely to keep their discipline. It might be prudent to go for simply an away team red card but at the price I decided to stick with a sending off for either side.

My "Harry-like" ;-) portfolio of bets:

BUY Aalborg bookings at 27 (SX)
A red card to be shown 5/1 (Unibet)
Magnus Christensen to be carded 19/10 (Unibet)
Lucas Anderson to be carded 4/1 (Hills/skybet)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:36 pm

nick wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:46 pm
My "Harry-like" ;-) portfolio of bets:

BUY Aalborg bookings at 27 (SX)
A red card to be shown 5/1 (Unibet)
Magnus Christensen to be carded 19/10 (Unibet)
Lucas Anderson to be carded 4/1 (Hills/skybet)
:). Are you trying to suggest I'm not a "keep it simple" sort of guy!

Had a bit of the 5/1 red card and taken PP's 13/8 >40 points as pick of the prices.

Also done a 4-6 cards shown trixie on the games at Augsburg, Levrkusen and Osasuna, all at 23/20 with Hills. All decent on the ref stats and booking expectations for tonight.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:34 pm

Alaves v Real Sociedad
Bet builder @ 13/10
Over 0 goals in match + Under 11 corners + Alves over 2 cards

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