Football for the season 2019-20

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harry_rag
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Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:47 pm

New thread for the new season; as per last year a rolling thread for the whole season.

I'm sure if we're nice to him that Col will post up fixtures now and again! ;-)

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:39 pm

Cheers harry :) :thumbs

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:32 pm

Tuesday 23/07/2019

Champions League
Qualifying Second Round

Viktoria Plzen v Olympiakos
Saburtalo v Dinamo Zagreb
PSV Eindhoven v FC Basel
The New Saints v FC Copenhagen
Sutjeska Niksic v Apoel Nicosia

Europa League
Qualifying Second Round

Ararat-Armenia v Lincoln Red Imps
HB Tórshavn v Linfield
Shkendija v F91 Dudelange
FC Santa Coloma v FC Astana
Tre Penne v Suduva

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:14 pm

Had a goalscorer bet in the B2 game about to start, Arminia Bielefeld v St Pauli. Knoll looks big at 7/1 with Lads and others (boosted to 15/2) and might as well blow a quid on the brace at 150/1! {8

Got 4 last season including 2 pens, spreads make him the away team's second most likely scorer and no more than a 6/1 shot.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:57 pm

Just been reading the RP pre-season pullout which was in today's paper and there's an interesting spread on the introduction of VAR and the impending rule changes (with focus on the handball rule change). Bookies are expecting a lot more bets on penalties and goalscorer bets on penalty takers and are gearing up to cut prices accordingly but opinion from the referee community put me more in a "don't believe the hype" frame of mind. There's no evidence to suggest that the introduction of VAR has lead to an increase in penalties being awarded in other major European leagues but the handball rule could change that. It did cause carnage in some of the Summer International tournaments though there were signs, part way through the Women's World Cup, of the use of VAR being severely reined back as it was becoming embarrassing.

Going to see if any firms are offering prices that offer value in going low on total penalties awarded next season. Be interested in any views on this topic. There were 103 in the EPL last season, 80 in 17/18 and 106 in 16/17.

Where would you pitch the line for an over/under bet this season at 10/11 either way (true odds, without factoring in likely weight of money for overs)? I'm thinking maybe 115.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:53 am

I feel there's a good chance that Macclesfield could have a poor start to the season. They barely survived relegation the the non-league last season. There have been ongoing financial problems during the close season with players reportedly having to instigate formal legal proceedings to get paid. Fans' favourites have quit the club, and recruitment has been a big struggle. Their new centre forward is nowhere near League 2 standard (Joe Ironside from Nat League North) and they have hardly found the net in pre-season. They played a friendly against Leek Town and only drew 0-0 despite Leek shipping 9 goals in their previous friendly. Last Saturday they supposedly put out their likely side against Exeter (for their opening League game this Saturday) and went down 3-0 at National League Hartlepool with scarcely an effort on goal if reports are to be believed.

Macclesfield travel to Exeter this Saturday. The home side seem to be in decent shape and could find some easy pickings against Sol Campbell's unsettled outfit. At the risk of egg on face I've loaded up a bit on Exeter:

Exeter (-1 handicap) 29/10 (Coral)
Buy Exeter supremacy at 0.65 (SPIN)
Buy Exeter goal rush at 18 (SX)

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:33 am

Thanks nick :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:18 pm

Have taken a closer look at the total season penalties market and reached a decision.

I've decided to sell total penalties awarded at 132 with SX (had to sell converted at 102 and unconverted at 30 as they're not quoting a combined price). I'm going with the "sell hype" theory which tends to do well more often than not, I just don't think the combined effect of VAR and the new handball rule should have pushed the figure anywhere near as high as that.

Over the last 10 years, the number awarded has ranged from 80 to 106 and averaged 94. There's no indication of VAR alone having much effect on penalties in the other 4 major leagues and the suggestion seems to be it will be used sparingly here, only where there's believed to have been a clear error made. There's also signs that the interpretation of the handball rule will not be as strict as we have seen elsewhere with Mike RIley saying he doesn't think there will be much of a change to how it has been interpreted for the past few seasons.

We'll see what happens but I'm happy to be short of that price.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Timmo » Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:21 pm

Treble
Exeter 4/5 thanks nick :thumbs
Blackburn 8/11
Sheff Wed 15/8

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:35 pm

Puntersmate Bank Builder

I'm going to give this another go. I tried it a couple of seasons ago and it was an abject failure. :(
Bank of £300 split into six. Banker bets could be anything, sort of 1.10 to 1.25

Each bet on any specific day will be placed at the same stake, ie first day four bets all placed at £50 per bet
The next day, the stakes will be recalculated and split into a sixth of the bank.

I have a spreadsheet that does it automatically, if anyone feels like joining in.

Cover me lads, I'm going in. :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by freebooter » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:25 pm

Still think the value lies in the lower divisions, going to concentrate on League 2 & National league

NL Treble

Bromley 6/4
Solihull 8/13
Halifax 11/8

Good luck guys

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:00 am

First two bets for the Bank builder.

Friday 09th

Liverpool win £50 @ 1.15
Liv v Nor over 1.5 £50 @ 1.15

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:57 am

Friday, 9 August 2019

20:00 - Liverpool v Norwich City

Saturday, 10 August 2019

12:30 - West Ham v Man City
15:00 - AFC Bournemouth v Sheffield United
15:00 - Burnley v Southampton
15:00 - Crystal Palace v Everton
15:00 - Watford v Brighton
17: 30 - Spurs v Aston Villa

Sunday, 11 August 2019

14:00 - Leicester City v Wolves
14:00 - Newcastle United v Arsenal
16:30 - Man Utd v Chelsea

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:42 am

Col wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:00 am
First two bets for the Bank builder.

Friday 09th

Liverpool win £50 @ 1.15
Liv v Nor over 1.5 £50 @ 1.15
Good luck Col. Will follow with interest but no £ (so no risk of me jinxing you).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:37 pm

Backed Liverpool to get >3 corners in each half at 21/10 with Hills. They're in for around 8 corners and their multis are 16 or more to buy so better than 2/1 about that bet seems decent.

Probably need Norwich to offer a degree of resistance to get this over the line and the opening fixture of the season might see Liverpool make a slower than usual start.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:08 pm

Bank builder Saturday

Spurs DNB £53 @ 1.10

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:41 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:37 pm
Backed Liverpool to get >3 corners in each half at 21/10 with Hills. They're in for around 8 corners and their multis are 16 or more to buy so better than 2/1 about that bet seems decent.

Probably need Norwich to offer a degree of resistance to get this over the line and the opening fixture of the season might see Liverpool make a slower than usual start.
Nice one harry :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:51 pm

Cheers Col, came in easily enough despite Norwich not getting the memo about offering resistance. Well done on your winning start.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Hoofhearted » Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:29 am

3 bets for the weekend although it’s difficult to be over confident given the early stages of the Uk season.

Rochdale v Doncaster Rovers – OVER 2.5 Goals

Rochdale were top of the table last season for overs bets and this fixture saw goals last yearRochdale lost 5-0 away and 2-3 at home.

Doncaster ended last season with 2-3 and 2-2 scorelines when playing away, and Rochdale hinted of what’s to come this season winning a3-2 away last weekend.
4/5 looks fair

Oxford Utd v Peterborough Utd – Both Teams to Score

These two clubs have been in the same division as each other for the last three seasons, and in that time 5 of their 6 meetings have seen goals at both ends.

Including the end of the last season, Both Teams to Score has paid out in 5 of Peterborough’s last 6 league games, and in 5 Oxford league games in a row.
The trends looked look continuing in 2019-20 Peterborough started had a 1-3 defeat last weekend. Oxford finished 1-1

Both Teams to Score is 4/6

Sunday - Norway Bodo Glimt v Viking
First Goalscorer Amor Layouni

I won’t bore you with details but I looked at this game for another reason, and just like a woman does in a department store I browsed at a few other markets whilst I was looking at this fixture.
Ok I know it’s not the premier league :lol but a 9/2 winner pays the same in Norway as it does in the Uk.

In a nutshell Amor Layouni at around 9/2 is a good bet as first goal scorer in this game.
A winger but is their leading goal scorer scoring 5 in their last 5 games and 9 in 15 this season in the league
The home team have scored first in 7 of their 8 home games.

He’s 4/1 with many UK bookies, 9/2 with Bet 365 and Betway and 19/4 with 888 and Unibet.

8 bookies have a player as favourite for FGS who hasn’t played in any of their 15 games to date so I think it’s fair to say the traders don’t spend too much time fine tuning this market .

Like all betting it’s all about finding value - if this game was played 5 or 6 times would he likely to be the first goal scorer at least once - I’d rather back him than lay him especially given the fact that the home team are 1/2 so likely to score first.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:05 am

Good stuff there hoof :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by The Fenman » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:58 am

Saturday cash machines open :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap
Keep doing right things, right things happen. . . Simple innit

Timmo
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Timmo » Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Treble
Burnley 17/10
Hull 21/20
Sheff Wed 23/20

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:38 pm

Having resisted any goalscorer bets on the 2 televised EPL games I've gone for an interest in each of the 3:00 games. Jury's out on whether I should leave this market alone but, for now, the occasional bet is still "allowed"!

Milivojevic (Palace) at 5.68
McGoldrick (Sheff U) at 4.22
Deulofeu (Watford) at 4.1
Barnes (Burnley) at 3.35

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Hoofhearted » Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:53 pm

Timmo wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:58 pm
Treble
Burnley 17/10
Hull 21/20
Sheff Wed 23/20
Well done Timmo :thumbs

Bad day at the office for me needed another goal in each game - first goal scorer bet to go tomorrow so fingers crossed

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Timmo » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:25 pm

Cheers hoofy :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:34 pm

Well played Timmo :clap :clap

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:41 pm

:thumbs We'll expect that every week now!

Just the Barnes goal for me but, given stakes, pretty much break even.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:22 pm

Bank builder bet

Benfica to beat Pacos Ferreira £53 @ 1.19
1.20 at the fair

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:50 am

Hoofhearted wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:29 am
............................................

Sunday - Norway Bodo Glimt v Viking
First Goalscorer Amor Layouni

I won’t bore you with details but I looked at this game for another reason, and just like a woman does in a department store I browsed at a few other markets whilst I was looking at this fixture.
Ok I know it’s not the premier league :lol but a 9/2 winner pays the same in Norway as it does in the Uk.

In a nutshell Amor Layouni at around 9/2 is a good bet as first goal scorer in this game.
A winger but is their leading goal scorer scoring 5 in their last 5 games and 9 in 15 this season in the league
The home team have scored first in 7 of their 8 home games.

He’s 4/1 with many UK bookies, 9/2 with Bet 365 and Betway and 19/4 with 888 and Unibet.

8 bookies have a player as favourite for FGS who hasn’t played in any of their 15 games to date so I think it’s fair to say the traders don’t spend too much time fine tuning this market .

Like all betting it’s all about finding value - if this game was played 5 or 6 times would he likely to be the first goal scorer at least once - I’d rather back him than lay him especially given the fact that the home team are 1/2 so likely to score first.
Good luck, Hoof :thumbs . I love these sort of posts because, as you say, they are frequently outside the comfort zone of the bookies, hence there is value to be found. I've had a trawl through the recent games of both these sides. There's no doubt that Viking's defence can be porous at times, and Bodo Glimt appear to have the forwards to do damage. They had a blip a couple of games ago with a 6-0 loss away at Valerenga.

Over the last 5 matches in which Bodo Glimt has scored (i.e. over the last 6 apart from Valerenga), your Amor Layouni has been 1st goalscorer once. What was noticeable over the same period was that Hakon Evjen was first goalscorer three times. He actually scored the opening 2 goals of the game in Bodo Glimt's last fixture. Your guy seems to be the penalty taker so that is a good pointer and he also scored (Bodo's 3rd) in the return fixture away at Viking. However, at 15/2 (Bet 365) 1st scorer I'll be greedy and go for Hakan Evjen.

It's also tempting to have a buy of total match goals on the spreads at 3.6, although that's a bit high for my usual match goals bet. However, by Norwegian standard the weather during the game is set to be very decent, albeit a bit breezy.

[By the way I'd be interested to know "the other reason" you looked at this game, if you are around. Has Amor Layouni offered to sell you a greyhound? :lol :lol ].

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:51 pm

Under Sunday Football Specials, Fred go 7/2 for Joelinton to score v Newcastle, next best being 14/5. I think that's a decent price for him to score on his debut.

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