Football for the season 2019-20

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm

Good luck Nick, had a bit of >3.5 and 4.5.

Parma v Atalanta: Kucka anytime at 23/4 with 888. Not sure he should be as big as 5/1, let alone bigger.

I'll spare you an elaborate joke about him thriving under high pressure! :>

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:37 pm

nick wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:17 pm
Not much today but I did notice the likelihood of goals in the Norwegian Div 1 between HamKam v Ranheim. The home side are bottom with 4 straight defeats with 19 goals featuring in those games (7f 12a). The visitors' games have also had 19 goals but the opposite (12f 7a). I've gone with over 4.5 match goals at 5/2 (skybet) which is a bit of value and would have copped in 5 out of the 8 games these teams have played this season.
:thumbs Cheers Nick. 5th goal arrives with over 20 minutes to spare.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:39 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm
Good luck Nick, had a bit of >3.5 and 4.5.

Parma v Atalanta: Kucka anytime at 23/4 with 888. Not sure he should be as big as 5/1, let alone bigger.

I'll spare you an elaborate joke about him thriving under high pressure! :>
Cheers Harry. Good luck with your Parma goalscorer :thumbs .

The 5th goal in Norway arrives in the 66th minute :) . Ronning opened the scoring to give hope of a brace but has now been substituted.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:40 pm

Crossing posts yet again :lol :lol .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:28 pm

No joy with Kucka. Inter v Napoli and Sanchez and Candreva both caught my eye for potential scorer or assist bets.

Can't quite bring myself to back Sanchez to score at 23/10 but Candreva at 7.6 on BF is very appealing.

Sanchez assist at 12/5 Lads just about tempted me in and 19/5 Candreva, again, appeals even more. (Both have similar assist minute quotes with SPIN, Sanchez a couple of points higher.)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am

Another game with goals potential is in the Faroe islands between B36 Torshavn and Vikingur Gota. Although only one place above their visitors in the table, B36 are 8 points ahead and do seem to be on a much better run of form. Their only reverse was last time out at the runaway league leaders. B36's previous 4 games had seen them score 16 goals, including 6 in their only home match in that run.

Whilst Vikingur's form looks reasonable it is all against teams below them, including against the two basement teams who are both winless in their combined 28 games. Vikingur came up short and lost against 3rd placed Klaksvik whom B36 beat 6-2. I've gone with the following:

B36 Torshavn v Vikingur over 4.5 match goals 5/2 (Unibet)
BUY B36 Torshavn Goal Rush at 29 (SX)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:55 pm

nick wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:40 am
..........................

B36 Torshavn v Vikingur over 4.5 match goals 5/2 (Unibet)
BUY B36 Torshavn Goal Rush at 29 (SX)
Nice result with 4 goals for B36 Torshavn in a game of 6 goals :) :) .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:02 pm

Well done Nick :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:13 pm

Cheers Nick, I did the old >3.5 & >4.5 shuffle again. :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:22 pm

The last French League Cup Final ever to be played takes place tomorrow between PSG and Lyon. SPIN's bookings quote of 41-45 looks a tad generous against Spreadex 46-50. There is no Mbappe for PSG after he was assaulted in the recent bad-tempered Cup Final against St Etienne which resulted in a high and very profitable bookings make up.

I reckon there could be a few niggles again tomorrow and ref Jerome Brisard is quite capable of dishing out the cards when neccessary.

PSG v Lyon BUY bookings at 45 (SPIN).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:01 pm

Thanks Nick, here's my pick of a trawl of the fixed odds prices, for anyone who likes to over complicate things! {8

>40 points 13/10 PP
>4.5 cards 59/50 888
60+ points 5/2 Skybet
Each team 3+ cards 15/2 PP (or 13/2 Hills)
>2 cards in each half 17/2 Hills
Lyon >1 card in each half 12/1 Hills
PSG >1 card in each half 14/1 Hills

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:41 pm

Cardiff not the best team to have on your side corners wise but surely they have to give it a good go tonight if they're going to overturn a 2 goal deficit. Certainly no onus on Fulham to attack. I've backed Cardiff most corners at 19/10 with Sporting Bet and their multis >4.5 at 5/4 with PP.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:23 pm

Not much today apart from PSG v Lyon tonight, but I thought there were a couple of possibilties in our lockdown saviour (the Belarus League :> ).

Referee Sergei Chistov was a fairly steady 80+ merchant earlier in the season. He has declined slightly, although his last 5 have still been 40, 50, 60, 50 and 95. Today he takes charge of Slutsk v Shaktor Soligorsk. In three of Slutsk's last five matches they alone have accrued 50, 50 and 80 points and joint league leaders Soligorsk have a 40 and a 30 in their last four. Slutsk are flirting with relegation and joint leaders Soligorsk will be desperate to get clear of BATE Borisov. There's a chance this could be lively so I've had a BUY of cross-bookings at 795 (SX).

The later game is Dinamo Brest v Vitebsk. Were it not for the disciplinary record of the home side I'd be a definite bookings seller here because ref Amin Kurgeli is on a definite downward trend. He has only gone above 40 once in his last 9 games (that was only 55). Dinamo Brest's last 5 are 70, 50, 40, 20 and 65, whereas correspondingly Vitebsk are 20, 0, 0, 10 and 30. It's a mid-table game so may stay fairly calm. The bookies have perhaps the wrong favourite to pick up more bookings with Vitebsk odds on. For me there's a bit of value in Dinamo Brest to receive more bookings points at 13/8 (Skybet, Hills).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:50 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:23 pm
Not much today apart from PSG v Lyon tonight, but I thought there were a couple of possibilties in our lockdown saviour (the Belarus League :> ).

Referee Sergei Chistov was a fairly steady 80+ merchant earlier in the season. He has declined slightly, although his last 5 have still been 40, 50, 60, 50 and 95. Today he takes charge of Slutsk v Shaktor Soligorsk. In three of Slutsk's last five matches they alone have accrued 50, 50 and 80 points and joint league leaders Soligorsk have a 40 and a 30 in their last four. Slutsk are flirting with relegation and joint leaders Soligorsk will be desperate to get clear of BATE Borisov. There's a chance this could be lively so I've had a BUY of cross-bookings at 795 (SX).
Up to 835 now. I've availed myself of Hills prices for >55 and >65 (11/10 and 2/1). Quite a contrast with Sky Bet who go 5/4 for <60 and 4/6 for <70! {8

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:01 am

Only 4 yellows in 90 minutes in the French League Cup Final then it took off in extra time. Pity there wasn't a goal during normal time.

Tiny profit in first Belarus game with cross bookings making up at 800.

The second game was really frustrating since the bet looked home and hosed with Dinamo Brest leading 3 yellows to nil at the 85th minute. Then Vitebsk (losing 1-0) started to get desperate and it got back to 3-2 at the start of injury time. Then a Vitebsk forward overran the ball so it went for a goal kick, collected it and slammed it down on the turf in frustration at himself. The referee thought it was dissent and booked him *, . So the bookings ended up 3-3. Such is the lot of the poor, hapless punter :lol .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:06 pm

Arsenal v Chelski 17:30
4+ corners each team
@ 1.80

Arsenal avg 6.08
Chelski avg 6.50

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:56 am


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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:25 pm

Backed a couple of eye catching prices in the Ross C v Motherwell game, both with 888.

Mckay at 10/3 and Turnbull at 19/5.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:22 pm

Brentford v Fulham 19:45
Over 1 card in the match for Brentford
Over 1 card in the match for Fulham
@ 2.00

Brentford v Fulham 19:45
Alternative goal line Over 2.0
@ 1.70

Christian Norgaard
Cyrus Christie
To be booked double
@ 15.00 b3

I expect a few cards tonight , Brentford avg 3.17 a game and Fulham avg 3.54 a game .So with a lot riding on this there will I am sure be some hefty challenges being dished out.
C Norgaard has 10 yellows to his name with an avg of 19% while C Christie only 6 but avg 24% this season.

The Ref M Atkinson avg is 2.88 a game but is more used to the sublime premier league :lol so might find this kick & guts football very different. Oh and ther might be a goal or 3 :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Aug 04, 2020 6:46 pm

peanut wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:22 pm
The Ref M Atkinson avg is 2.88 a game but is more used to the sublime premier league :lol so might find this kick & guts football very different. Oh and ther might be a goal or 3 :)
He's reffed 3 Championship play-off games over the years and has make ups of 70, 50 and 10. There was a penalty in each of these 3 games so the mug in me couldn't resist pen taken at 3/1 and the 7/1 and 10/1 for each of the teams to score one. Kebano worth sticking with anytime at 5/1 (won on him and didn't get matched when he scored in the last 2 games)

Good luck with your bets.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:57 am

FC Copenhagen v Basaksehir 17:55

Copenhagen to score a penalty
@ 9.00
Basaksehir to score a penalty
@ 9.00

Copenhagen have seen a pen in 45% of matches and Basaksehir 56%, the ref also likes a penalty as he has given 15 in 24 matches this season - 62%

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:58 am

I wouldn't usually touch bookings with a team leading 5-0 from the first leg. However, Man Utd are playing several squad members tonight who will hopefully be 100% out to impress. Their Austrian opponents LASK picked up 4 yellows in the first leg, picked up 45 and 30 points against AZ Alkmaar and 30 points in each of their ties against PSV.

The referee seemingly can go mental with some spectacular make ups. He is Anastasios Sidiropoulos of Greece. The caveat is that his 3 Champions League matches last year only yielded 30, 40 and 40, although his 2 Europa League ties witnessed 100 and 180 (the latter included extra time, although it was 120 at the end of normal time). He averages nearly 90 in his home league.

If it does get a bit tasty, there could be plenty of upside in a buy of cross-bookings at 260 (SX).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:34 pm

Inter v Getafe 20:00
Jamie Mata - Allan Nyom - Damian Suarez - to be booked
Doubles
@ 8.50
@ 5.50
@ 5.50
Treble
@ 17.00

If true to form there should be plenty of cards from Getafe. These are the main men with 16,17,17 cards on their rap sheet so hope they oblige :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:37 am

Barcelona v Napoli 20:00

Baca to score a penalty
@ 5.50

Napoli to scre a penalty
@ 10.00

Ref loves a penalty, given 4 in last 3 CL games.His average in Turkey is 0.52 and 0.43 in CL. :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:03 pm

Champions League Preliminary Qualification: Tre Fiori v Linfield (2 pm).

Always looking to see if there are any spread markets where a team from San Marino features. Background here: https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/sport/foo ... d-18736851

It's a neutral venue in Switzerland and not a two-legged affair. Tre Fiori have not played competitively since February. Hope their preparations have not been as useful as Linfield's friendlies.

Tre Fiori v Linfield: BUY Linfield goals at 2.6 (SPIN)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:55 am

peanut wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:37 am
Barcelona v Napoli 20:00

Baca to score a penalty
@ 5.50

Napoli to scre a penalty
@ 10.00

Ref loves a penalty, given 4 in last 3 CL games.His average in Turkey is 0.52 and 0.43 in CL. :)
:cheers Great stuff mate, well done to all those who took that as a nudge to buy penalty goal minutes at 17! ;-)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:26 am

Harry :thumbs ;-)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:49 pm

Rosenborg v Sarpsborg 08 17:00 (Nor)

Rosenborg to score 2+ goals
@ 2.00

Have won the last three at home with 3,2,3 goals against a side who have won 1 from 5 away and have a poor H2H at Rosenborg.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:27 pm

Romelu Lukaku
To Score in 90mins - Inter v Bayer Leverkusen
Anthony Martial
To Score in 90mins - Manchester Utd v FC København
Double
@ 4.30

Enough said ;-)

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