Football for the season 2019-20

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harry_rag
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 20, 2020 3:30 pm

2 goalscorer bets that look reasonably priced; Savitski 10/3 and Nekhajchik 3/1 both with Paddy.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 21, 2020 2:55 pm

"Neckerchief" anytime pulled my proverbials out of the fire yeaterday. Nearly got away with 6 cards even though they'd arrived before the hour mark. 7th came in added time though.

Today we have Neman Grodno v Torpedo Zhodino reffed by Chistov. I'm almost drawn into <60 at 11/10 PP and a sell at 64 with SPIN but the steep upward curve on his totals this season puts me off. Feels like a game where those bets will win if there's no red card but lose if there is. His overall pen stats are not that compelling but you can't ignore 6 this season where 5 came in one game! {8 Fixed odds prices poor but I've bought pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN (17 to buy elsewhere).

Will look at goalscorers as line ups are confirmed.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 21, 2020 3:24 pm

Just Kadimyan for me. Buy his goal minutes at 13 with SPIN and back him at 16/1 with PP to score in the 1st 20 minutes.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 22, 2020 1:04 pm

69th minute penalty makes for a profitable day yesterday.

First game today is Slavia Mozyr v Gorodeya reffed by Gorayutin. His card average is moderate overall but on an upward trajectory. His totals have been 60, 85 and 125 this season but those last two games are the only red cards in my sample going back 33 games. I think the cards expectation is a bit over-inflated for this game so I'm taking a "sell hype" stance and hoping I don't end up getting burned! He's a reasonable prospect for pens.

Sell bookings at 70 with SPIN and back <60 points at 6/4 Skybet
Buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN and back pen taken at 11/4 and 2+ taken at 28/1 Skybet

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 22, 2020 1:09 pm

The other game is Soligorsk v Belshina with Lashuk in charge. Not enough to go on with him from a cards perspective (only handled 2 top flight games) so I'll swerve that though I'd go low at the prices if I had a free bet to burn (59 to sell). His overall stats certainly suggest he knows where the penalty spot is but 18 seems a high price to buy at so I'll probably swerve that.

Penalty taken at 9/4 Skybet

Penalty taken double with above game at 11/4 and 9/4

A muggy £1 double on 2+ pens taken at 28/1 and 20/1!

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri May 22, 2020 2:15 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 1:04 pm
69th minute penalty makes for a profitable day yesterday.

First game today is Slavia Mozyr v Gorodeya reffed by Gorayutin. His card average is moderate overall but on an upward trajectory. His totals have been 60, 85 and 125 this season but those last two games are the only red cards in my sample going back 33 games. I think the cards expectation is a bit over-inflated for this game so I'm taking a "sell hype" stance and hoping I don't end up getting burned! He's a reasonable prospect for pens.

Sell bookings at 70 with SPIN and back <60 points at 6/4 Skybet
Buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN and back pen taken at 11/4 and 2+ taken at 28/1 Skybet
Agree with your bookings sentiments on this one. I've actually sold 70-ups at 12.5 (SPIN). He'd have to get to 85 before any loss, and prior to their last matches when each had a player sent off, both Slavia Mozyr and Gorodeja averaged only 15 points and 18 points respectively for their preceding 4 games.

I think there is some prospect of cards in the Bundesliga 2 game between Heidenheim and Wehen. The home side have seen 2 red cards in their 3rd and 4th last games (although I suppose this is somewhat irrelevant in the current circumstances). There is plenty riding on the match, particularly for relegation-threatened Wehen who are usually good for at least 2 cards. The referee is potentially encouraging. He is Timo Gerach who seems to have relatively few appointments as the man in the middle - being more usually a 4th official in the main league. However, when he does get the whistle himself he can certainly go high (by German rather than Belarussian standards). Have had a buy of cross-bookings at 500.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm

Cheers Nick will have a look at that German game.

In the Belarus opener, 3 goalscorers that appeal. Chukhley 23/4 888, Sajcic 11/2 SX and Sorokin 10/1 SX.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri May 22, 2020 3:38 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 1:09 pm
The other game is Soligorsk v Belshina with Lashuk in charge. Not enough to go on with him from a cards perspective (only handled 2 top flight games) so I'll swerve that though I'd go low at the prices if I had a free bet to burn (59 to sell).........................................
The relatively poor discipline of both sides tempts me on this one. Over their last 5 games the sides average 41 and 46 respectively. I agree that Lashuk's record is not encouraging. However, as this is a rare appointment in the top flight, he may be stricter. In case this becomes as lively as the team stats suggest, I've had a buy of cross bookings at 900. I'd hope :> for a worst case make up of 400 with a possible 2000+ '# .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 22, 2020 4:02 pm

Good luck. A buy a 44 is a tempting enough way to follow you in Germany but I've gone for >40 at 6/4 Sky Bet and >4.5 cards 17/10 888.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri May 22, 2020 4:58 pm

The Slavia Mozyr game comes in at exactly 70 for 12.5 points profit :) .

Unlucky with yours, Harry, but very well done on the penalty bets again :thumbs .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 22, 2020 5:08 pm

Cheers and well done Nick. Nice to see I was right to believe that Chukhley took the pens.

Apparently him playing alongside his brother is something to behold as they have an almost telepathic understanding. It's all to me, to you, to me etc. :>

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 23, 2020 11:15 am

First bet of the day for me is a buy of Freiburg headed goal mins at 14 with SPIN. Same stats based rationale that lead to a decent win on Leverkusen's last week. The price is 16-19 elsewhere though that would include headed own goals as well.

I've also had a small bet on both teams scoring a header at 14/1 Hills though I'd have preferred a juicy price about 2 or more headers scored.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 23, 2020 11:51 am

Looked at penalty angle in Belarus, ref's are Shcherbakov, Sevostyanik and Stetsurin and I'd rate the games as strong, poor and good in that order.

I've decided to buy the aggregate penalty goal mins in all 3 games at 46 with SPIN (would cost you 55 elsewhere) and done the pens taken trixie at 5/2, 9/4 and 11/4 with Sky Bet. I've also done the muppety 2+ pens taken trixie at 20/1 plus odds. :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat May 23, 2020 12:22 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:51 am
Looked at penalty angle in Belarus, ref's are Shcherbakov, Sevostyanik and Stetsurin and I'd rate the games as strong, poor and good in that order.

I've decided to buy the aggregate penalty goal mins in all 3 games at 46 with SPIN (would cost you 55 elsewhere) and done the pens taken trixie at 5/2, 9/4 and 11/4 with Sky Bet. I've also done the muppety 2+ pens taken trixie at 20/1 plus odds. :)
Good luck, Harry :thumbs .

Haven't had a bet yet today. I've noticed in the Belarus 1st Div that ref Sergei Tsinkovich (FC Gomel v Volna Pinsk) has only had 4 league games this season which have resulted in 5 penalties.

I do like one for tomorrow in the 1st Div where ref Andrey Vasilevich's 4 league games in Prem and Div 1 combined have yielded 95, 70, 110 and 105. He takes charge of Krumkachi v Arsenal both of whom can certainly play their part with respective team totals of 120 and 160 for their last 3 games. The problem is the likely lack of spread markets. I'll wait until later to see if anything emerges.

Haven't had time to look at Germany - decided to lose money on French racing instead *, .

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 23, 2020 12:23 pm

Think I'm going to swerve cards today unless Nick sways me one way or the other (if he's not too busy reminiscing about his old girlfriends)! :)

All 3 ref's have a fairly high and upward trending cards average but that seems at least adequately (if not excessively) reflected in the prices. My gut feel thoughts are:

Selling at an aggregate 197 would probably show a profit

Backing 4-6 cards in each game might be profitable (13/10, 6/5 and 13/10 again)

>60 at 11/10 in the middle game might just be a bit of value.

Nothing pulling me strongly enough to put my cash on the barrel head so far.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 23, 2020 1:27 pm

Mohammed Umar huge at 5/1 Power Price in the 1st game but only allowed £1.25! Topped up with a buy of his goal mins at 10 with SPIN.

In Germany, on Diaby 10/3 for Leverkusen and Rashica 3/1 for Werder, both with PP.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat May 23, 2020 3:25 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:51 am
Looked at penalty angle in Belarus, ref's are Shcherbakov, Sevostyanik and Stetsurin and I'd rate the games as strong, poor and good in that order.

I've decided to buy the aggregate penalty goal mins in all 3 games at 46 with SPIN (would cost you 55 elsewhere) and done the pens taken trixie at 5/2, 9/4 and 11/4 with Sky Bet. I've also done the muppety 2+ pens taken trixie at 20/1 plus odds. :)
An 87th minute penalty in the first game :thumbs :thumbs where the referee has only remembered in the 93rd minute that he has not left his cards in the changing room :lol .

I've just had a boring double that pays about 2.60 with skybet:

Isloch Minsk v Energetik to receive more bookings points 8/11
Vitebsk v Dinamo Minsk over 59.5 match bookings points 1/2

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun May 24, 2020 11:17 am

A couple of plays in the B2 games for me, largely driven by ref stats.

Karlsruher v Bochum (Welz): Buy pen goal mins at 16 SPIN and back penalty awarded 3.34 BF (bigger with sportsbook)

Holstein Kiel v Stuttgart (Schroder): 4-6 cards shown at 23/20 Hills

In the top flight, Gregoritsch anytime at 3/1 looks decent with PP.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun May 24, 2020 1:55 pm

One out of three not great (4-6 cards) but better than nowt.

Belarus cup final and I fancy Dinamo Brest's chances of an upset at the prices. To win at 5.6 and to lift the trophy at 11/5.

Also have to go low on cards with Kurgheli in charge. Can sell bookings at 66 but I've favoured going with the 50-ups at 22.

Anytime interest is Savitski at 4/1.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Tue May 26, 2020 12:04 pm

Having had a bit of a delve this morning I've gone for a goals bet in the Czech Div 2. From a combination of stats and what I've read in garbled translations about managers changing tack to go all out attacking - and borne out by warm up results before the lockdown:

Banik Sokolov v Slavoj Vysehrad BUY total goals at 3 (SX) and goal rush at 37 (SPIN).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue May 26, 2020 3:08 pm

Good luck nick, I'll "check" in later to see how you get on! :>

Midweek action in Germany and I'll start in the second tier.

Erzgebirge v Darmstadt: 4-6 cards at 11/10 Hills and buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN.

Based on ref stats mainly. At this level you'd have had 4 straight profitable seasons backing him to middle the cards at odds against (19 times in 31 overall). He's also awarded 10 pens in 9 different games so is just about worth chancing at that price tonight.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 3:08 pm
Erzgebirge v Darmstadt: 4-6 cards at 11/10 Hills and buy pen goal mins at 13 with SPIN.
Also taken 5/2 pen taken 888.

Wehen Wiesbaden v Sandhausen is another game where the 4-6 cards band appeals and I'm on in that game at 11/10 as well.

In the early top flight game between Bayern and Dortmund I'll be on a red card and a pen in some shape or form, precise details to be confirmed. Ref has a low average but higher red count than you'd expect.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 27, 2020 12:04 pm

Will update my results later but that feels like a small profit. An early pen and one of the 4-6 games landed.

Based on ref Welz's stats the first game I had to look at today was Dusseldorf v Schalke. This season and last he average 54.44 points over 18 games that saw 10 red cards and 12 penalties. Looks like he was out of favour for a while (only 6 top flight games in the previous 2 seasons) and has come back all buns glazing (as the saying doesn't go)!

>40 points 13/10 PP and a red card at 17/4 888

Buy pen goal mins at 14 with SPIN and back pen taken at 9/4 Hills.

May be tempted by a spread play on bookings but waiting for SX to put prices up.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 27, 2020 2:22 pm

On a less exciting note, I've backed the 4-6 cards doubles and treble on the games at Leipzig, Berlin and Augsburg. Odds are 9/5, 11/8 and 23/20 and all are closer to coin tosses in my opinion, given the ref stats.

This is a market where the pricing is fairly standard and if you backed the middle band blindly you'd lose money (as with high or low). It's my belief (and one I aim to take a closer look at) that, done selectively, you can show a profit by backing 4-6 cards at odds against.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 27, 2020 2:40 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 2:22 pm
It's my belief (and one I aim to take a closer look at) that, done selectively, you can show a profit by backing 4-6 cards at odds against.
A quick look back shows 9 winners from 15 single bets this year so far for a profit of 3.95 points to level stakes with an ROI of 26.33%. Last year it was 4 winners from 11 for a 0.2 point loss so the combined record is 13 from 26 for a 3.75 point profit with an ROI of 14.42%. Hardly conclusive but better than finding I'm losing money on the market!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 27, 2020 3:50 pm

Bochum v Holstein Kiel is reffed by the splendidly named Guido Winkmann and he seems to consistently exceed the average for penalties awarded. 11/5 for one to be taken with 888 is worth an interest though the spread quotes are high enough to dissuade me from doubling down.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 28, 2020 2:12 pm

Stuttgart v Hamburg tonight in B2. Ref Dingert is a top flight official who seems to just handle a few games in the lower division each season. Over the last 4 seasons he's reffed 19 games, 14 of which have landed in the 4-6 band. I've therefore backed 4-6 cards shown at 11/10 with Hills.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Thu May 28, 2020 2:44 pm

The Premier League season is set to restart on 17 June with Aston Villa v Sheffield United and Manchester City v Arsenal, the BBC has learned.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Thu May 28, 2020 2:55 pm

Hurrah :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 28, 2020 6:03 pm

One more bet in same game, 19/5 a red card with 888. Hoping ref’s recent trend continues.

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