Football for the season 2019-20

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:52 am

Saturday 7th March

Premier League
Liverpool 12:30 Bournemouth
Arsenal 15:00 West Ham United
Crystal Palace 15:00 Watford
Sheffield United 15:00 Norwich City
Southampton 15:00 Newcastle United
Wolverhampton Wanderers 15:00 Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur On Sky

Sky Bet Championship
Bristol City 12:30 Fulham On Sky
Barnsley 15:00 Cardiff City
Birmingham City 15:00 Reading
Brentford 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday
Charlton Athletic 15:00 Middlesbrough
Leeds United 15:00 Huddersfield Town
Preston North End 15:00 Queens Park Rangers
Stoke City 15:00 Hull City
Swansea City 15:00 West Bromwich Albion
Wigan Athletic 15:00 Luton Town

Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen 15:00 Hibernian
Celtic 15:00 St Mirren
Hamilton Academical 15:00 Kilmarnock
Hearts 15:00 Motherwell
St. Johnstone 15:00 Livingston

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:46 am

In the National League Boreham Wood have been remarkably consistent in their away games, invariably scoring at least twice. They visit Maidenhead today who are pretty generous in allowing their visitors through their porous defence. As I've now put this cash cow out on the forum, it will probably finish 0-0 :> .

Maidenhead v Boreham Wood: Sell time of 2nd Boreham Wood goal at 75 (SPIN and SX)



In League 2 the troubles of Macclesfield have been well publicised, and they have already been docked 6 points for failure to pay wages. They actually put out the youth team in the FA Cup against Kingstonians because the senior pros refused to play. There is another potential 4 points docking hanging over them. It seem Macclesfield have failed to pay the players their February dues. Whilst there is no suggestion that the youth team will be on display again today, morale must be pretty low, and the trip to promotion-chasing Plymouth may not meet with excessive enthusiasm. Plymouth were 3 up against Grimsby in midweek before HT and then declared. Maybe Plymouth will be in similar mood this afternoon, hopefully not shutting up shop too soon.

Plymouth v Macclesfield: Buy Plymouth Goal Rush at 22 (SPIN and SX).

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:55 am

Good luck Nick :thumbs

Not much time today, but had a little dabble on this treble


Fleetwood to beat Blackpool
Coventry to beat Ipswich
Liverpool v Bournemouth - Liverpool And Both Teams To Score

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:03 pm

Good luck guys, Fred has pushed Mitrovic out to 6/4 for Fulham (next best 5/4 seems fair at worst) and that's big enough to tempt me in.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm

5️⃣7️⃣ Hardie gets on the end of a Byron cross and hits the post.
On another day, he might be celebrating his hat-trick.


1-0
Plymouth Argyle FC
@Only1Argyle
·
7m
5️⃣2️⃣ Hardie is denied a second goal because the officials did not see it cross the line.
With the benefit of replays, it very clearly was.

The last 2 tweets from Plymouth v Macclesfield *, . Probably will not add to their 1 goal now!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:46 pm

Well done Nick, Plymouth came through for you in the end. Unfortunately I translated your bets into a losing fixed odds double! *,

Unlucky Col, hit the woodwork with that one. Footy a bit of a wipeout for me today.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:56 pm

I'm hoping Villa will stick with the defensive formation they used in the League Cup Final and dispense with "services" of Hause and Konsa. If they do go again with Bjorn Engels partnering Mings, then at the prices it's worth a dabble on Engels to score. I've backed Engels at 17/1 to score anytime (Unibet) and bought his SM minutes at 4 (SX). SPIN are the same price for his ordinary goal minutes.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:31 pm

Rude not to follow in some shape or form! Also on Grealish at 6 which seems generous (was going to take 9/2 with Fred).

For a bit of Tier 2 action in France and Germany I like Sotoca at 13/8 PP for Lens and Wamangituka Fundu (I assume he'll have an amusing haircut with that name) for Stuttgart at 11/5 365 or SX.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:47 pm

Just a goal for Sotoca last night. Tonight I think Alli is a bit big at 4/1 for Spurs with Fred and Illic for Atalanta at 2.9 on BF. Stuck them in a double at shorter prices with 888.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:43 pm

The ref for Liverpool v Atletico Madrid is Danny Makkelie whose stats do not suggest it will be a bookings fest despite the likely nature of the game. What I have noticed is that he has officiated Liverpool in European games twice before and, despite low bookings total in each match, Sadio Mane was shown a yellow on both occasions. Given that Mane was also carded in Liverpool's 1-0 defeat in Madrid, it would be rude to assume he may be more careful this evening, especially if Atletico spoil and niggle.

Sadio Mane can be backed at 4/1 to be shown a card but I've gone with the spreads and bought his card minutes at 10 (SPIN).

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:37 pm

:thumbs I love a good "conspiracy theory" so will have a bit of that. 11.5 Wijnaldum and 7 Oxlade Chamberlain my anytime punts in this game, hoping to be matched at >4 for Sarabia in the other game.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:19 pm

Illicic obliged on Tuesday and Wijnaldum last night at double figure odds so just about ticking over by finding a winner each night at the moment!

LASK Linz V Man U: McTominay big enough to tempt me in at 8.7 on BF. For the hosts I think they're hotshots look cheap at 15 with SX, Frieser, Klauss, Tetteh and Rieter.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:33 pm

Frankfurt v Basel: Silva 6/4 888 and Kostic 13/5 PP.

Decent chance at least one of them scores and both strike me as reasonably priced.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:53 pm

*, I’ll get me coat!

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nick
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:32 pm

Purely stats based:

Nat League South - Eastbourne v Maidstone > 3.5 goals 11/5 (Spreadex).

[May still get called off like several in Nat League North - can buy total goals at 2.8 on the spreads but do wonder about the attitude of the players with all this doom and gloom with possibility of tepid 0-0 ?].

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:56 pm

Just done a "deep dive" on the bookings market in the Minsk derby that's about to kick off (I believe the pies are fantastic, Minsk pies, geddit?) :>

Spreads pitched around the 60 mark but recent history doesn't suggest this is too explosive a fixture in terms of cards. Played the following (Paddy offering usual pissy limits).

<70 points at evens
<30 home points at 15/8
<30 away points at 8/5
4-6 cards shown 23/10 Hills

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Col
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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:02 pm

Minsk pies *,

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:43 pm

All bets bust in that one, 6 yellows and a red.

Having a bash at the next game, Gorodeya v Shakhter Soligorsk. <50 at 5/4 PP and 4-6 cards at 11/10 Hills.

Another blowout and I'll probably go back into punting hibernation!

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:01 pm

Just 4 yellows for 40 points so a small profit on the day. :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:54 pm

Going again in the early Belarus game.

Isloch v Smolevichi: 4-6 cards at 11/10 Hills, <50 at 11/10 Skybet, No cards shown at 50/1 Skybet

I'm getting the vibe that this isn't too much of a high card league, looking at the head to heads in each game. Last 6 between these saw 30, 10, 30, 20, 10 and 100.

I have a pet theory that 4-6 will often be value at odds against thought I could do with doing more research into that. 11/10 for <50 is clear best low price and definitely strikes me as value. 50/1 for no card too big to not at least stick a quid on, Paddy go 16/1.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:51 pm

6 yellows. Sky Bet's loss (by limiting me on the losing <50 bet) is my gain. Quick look at the next game now to see if low cards stacks up again.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:59 pm

Neman Grodno v FC Vitebsk:

Played <60 at 5/6 PP and 4-6 cards at 21/20 with Hills.

A bit higher on the spreads than the earlier game but recent history of 60-10-20-50-20-60 seems reasonable enough.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:52 pm

6 yellows busts one bet but just lands the other. Another small profit on the day.

Will have another crack at it if there are games next weekend.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by Col » Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:05 pm

Nice one harry :thumbs

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by peanut » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:39 pm

Good for you Harry :)

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:52 pm

Another Thursday another round of Belarus footy! I've done a bit of study since weekend and managed to find a site that gives the ref appointments. All of that has lead to the following bets on today's games.

Belshina/Gorodeya:

Spreads for this game are 56-58 and ref Kurgkheli looks pretty average for the league (around 45 points based on my sample of data). Happy to take <60 points at 5/6 with PP and 4-6 cards at 21/20 Hills

Dinamo Minsk/Torpedo Zhordino:

Spreads are 62 buy or sell and ref Sevostsjyanik has the highest average in my sample (around 59 points). He's shown a red in 6 of his last 20 top flight games. Bets are red card shown 16/5 888, red card 1st half 10/1 PP, 4-6 cards 11/10 Hills, 70+ points 13/8 Skybet and (just for the fun of it) each team >1 card in each half 14/1 Hills.

A tad reluctant to bet high but ref just about sways me in the later game. Stakes are modest, let's see how this weekend pans out.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:16 am

Not great yesterday, broke even on the first game (unders landed but didn't make the mid-band) but blew out on the second. Not an overs league this one!

Did cross my mind to simply sell bookings in every game (prices would be 52, 50 and 54 in today's games) but I'll carry on with a modest fixed odds interest.

Trixie with Hills on <4 cards in each game at 9/5, 2/1 and 11/5 (landed in almost 45% of my sample) and trixies on <50 with PP ans Sky Bet (both to limited stakes) at prices between 10/11 and 11/10 for each game (landed in 60%).

Now for a proper gamble, off out to the shops! {8

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:17 am

Not pretty this week for unders backers, especially ones who manage to bet over on one of the only 2 games that went under! *,

2 games went under 50 points, 2 landed on 50 and 4 went over, including all 3 of Sunday's games that saw a red card. Blindly selling bookings would have seen a 45 point loss at anaverage of 59.38 points per game.

My sample has average points at around 44 and 59% of games going <50 points.

Conclusion, stick to favouring unders, hopefully this week's make ups will drive prices up for next weekend.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:00 pm

Back on the Belarusian bookings horse, to mix a few metaphors! {8

One game today and I'm sticking to the "KISS" methodology and going low. Sell bookings at 51 with SPIN, back under 50 points at 5/4 with both PP and Skybet. Just missed 13/10 with Paddy but the price was trimmed as I was making my mind up. In a moving display of solidarity both firms were willing to allow me a whole £8 on at 5/4! 8(:

I've just discovered I'm going to have to review my cards stats for the refs in this league as the site I used has what seems an unusal way of showing "second yellow" red cards. As a result, I'm probably 10 points and 1 card light on a few games. I don't think it will make a huge difference but I'll correct it soon enough.

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Re: Football for the season 2019-20

Post by nick » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:10 pm

Well done, Harry :thumbs . I didn't follow because I couldn't find any stats at all on the ref, Dmitriev.

Those 2 yellows in injury time were a bit of a bummer for the spreads sale but still 11 points profit.

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