The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Timmo
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by Timmo » Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:23 pm

North Hill 2-50 Uttox
Been off close on 2 years
Claimer on 1lb above last winning mark
Anywhere near fit should go close
Interesting so am having more on ;x;

And a ew double with L I L

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:34 pm

Best of luck Tim

Apache Pilot - 6.00 Hexham 20/1 loves it round here expect to see something better after first run back.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:40 am

Two horses leave Easterby's stable in the last couple of weeks go to different stables run in the same race the last at Ripon & dead heat !

Timmo
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by Timmo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:45 pm

Tempted by this one Boots

Mythmaker 4-35 Bev

Last visit to bev 2nd in a class 1 off 104
Couple runs this year was nibbled in the market
Off 78 tomorrow from a good draw cheek

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:48 am

Would have chances on that line of form Tim, Mads likes it as well, two runs back from a break so should be improving, almost all its best form is over six bar a couple of runs, think I would have liked to have seen a little more last time but no brainer at the price plus trainer has had a recent winner.

Timmo
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by Timmo » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:11 pm

Any thought on the 4-30 at Ayr Boots

Gloves Lynch in the silver cup on Saturday could be a prep run

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:10 am

Timmo wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:11 pm
Any thought on the 4-30 at Ayr Boots

Gloves Lynch in the silver cup on Saturday could be a prep run
Sorry Tim only just seen this {8

Given up trying to suss out what Wigham is up to, not sure about the Silver cup but cant see it over today's trip, King Of Tonga but its hardly a stand out price, best of luck.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:11 pm

Talking about the Silver Cup

Easterby has Golden Apollo in the Silver cup last years winner, won last year at 12/1 its 5lb higher this time round, there is 20's out there, whatever happens I suspect by race time it will be nearer last years price.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:09 pm

freebooter wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:11 pm
Talking about the Silver Cup

Easterby has Golden Apollo in the Silver cup last years winner, won last year at 12/1 its 5lb higher this time round, there is 20's out there, whatever happens I suspect by race time it will be nearer last years price.
Into 12's which is about what I thought it should be.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:10 pm

Sire stats for 7.15 Kempton here first two in the betting

Seaborn & Tiperten are out of Born To Sea 77 runs at the track 0 wins 4 places, you could argue the sire is due for a winner but must be value elsewhere imo.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:07 am

Newcastle sire stats horses that may struggle on the track, more of an experiment posting, usually ok in theory but probably picked the wrong day to try it on here, obviously only putting up horses at the front end of the market.

4.15 Bellatrixa looks worth opposing as Poetica & Golden Hind are strong on the stats.
4.50 Urban Violet place lay around 6/4 as first two look decent enough on the stats so worth taking on not to place at shortish odds.
5.20 Desert Palms only possible value here maybe a place lay but as that may be around 3/1 possibly not the best value.
7.30 Broctune Red running well but stats on Tapeta say no so maybe place lay at just under 2/1
8.30 Dream Together running well but not been here & may struggle but will be around 3/1 a place lay maybe not short enough.

freebooter
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Re: The Pre & Post Mortem thread

Post by freebooter » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:34 am

freebooter wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:07 am
Newcastle sire stats horses that may struggle on the track, more of an experiment posting, usually ok in theory but probably picked the wrong day to try it on here, obviously only putting up horses at the front end of the market.

4.15 Bellatrixa looks worth opposing as Poetica & Golden Hind are strong on the stats.
4.50 Urban Violet place lay around 6/4 as first two look decent enough on the stats so worth taking on not to place at shortish odds.
5.20 Desert Palms only possible value here maybe a place lay but as that may be around 3/1 possibly not the best value.
7.30 Broctune Red running well but stats on Tapeta say no so maybe place lay at just under 2/1
8.30 Dream Together running well but not been here & may struggle but will be around 3/1 a place lay maybe not short enough.
Desert Palms Placed at 9/4 so on a 1PT per lay on the five selections bought about a small 1.75 pt profit but it shows you need a very high percentage of winning bets to show a profit.

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