Review of Betting Performance

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harry_rag
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Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:37 pm

Catchy title, I'm sure that will tempt everyone in! :)

Just having a review of the detailed records I kept for August onwards. A review is a good idea, as is writing up the findings. Might as well do it on here in case anyone can be bothered to peruse and offer any feedback. The aim of this is to work out what does and doesn't work and thus improve the performance.

Bottom line, I lost 1,155.5 points over those 5 months. *,

I regard that as a worryingly bad return in the context of having a pool of 3,000 points set aside for betting purposes (in the bank account used just for betting and money on deposit). It's obviously disappointing for someone who has previously returned long term modest profit and assumed they were still doing so!

From August onwards the monthly P/L figures were -414.33 points, -0.84 points, -814.12 points, -34.47 points and +108.26 points. A 400 points loss represents a bad month but something I might expect once or twice a year; 800 points is very poor and needs a closer look.

The intention is to make use of the records I've kept and try and improve things going into a New Year. Further posts will cover specific areas of my betting.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:56 pm

First up, the star performer; anytime goalscorer betting. 448 bets (almost a third of total bets placed) showed a profit of 573.86 points. The level stakes ROI was 5.54% which is modest but decent enough across a reasonable sample size. Excluding the 41 "exotic" bets and just looking at straight anytime single bets the ROI improves slightly to 5.61%.

"Exotic" bets are doubles/trixies etc., time bets (to score in the first half/30 mins etc.) and method bets (to score a header/free kick/from outside the area).

There were 10 bets (all losers) on 2 players to score in the same match. I'm not sure why there were so many of those as I rarely do them of late and am not likely to do any more unless the price looks exceptional. I rarely do doubles etc. across different games but had returns from 2 out of 5 last year so will keep them as something I do once in a blue moon.

Time bets (2 winners from 8) and method bets (2 from 10) both showed a profit and I'm happy that I only do these where I'm confident "the price is right". Eriksen for Spurs being an example of someone who can offer value in this market.

Conclusion - carry on focusing on what is obviously my best market. Ditch the same game doubles and record any other "exotic" bets differently to the straight anytime bets (so I can be sure they continue to pay their way).

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:19 pm

Finally for today, the worst performer by a mile; buying player goal minutes. Just 8 winners from 101 bets and a whopping loss of 795 points! *,

Not much to be said beyond shoot me if you see me going near this market (other than for the purpose of using the spread prices to identify potential fixed odds bets).

This market is a useful tool for me but would also appear to be my kryptonite. It's one thing understanding the mechanics of a market and how it relates to others but it's obviously another thing altogether being able to beat it.

It does seem odd to have a sub 10% strike rate on finding goalscorers in this market when I'm hitting 23% on fixed odds but these numbers don't lie and it seems sensible to leave it alone for the foreseeable.

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Matt
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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:43 pm

Great stuff Harry, I'll post something similar tomorrow.

I know what the answer will be though - I'm miles up on cricket, pretty good at rugby and rubbish at football!

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:29 am

As expected the results are as follows (these are the last 6 months):

Cricket: +6,427 at ROI of 10.1%
Rugby: +617 at 3.9%
Football: -1,199 @ -6.3%

I don't particularly need to analyse the markets as nearly all the cricket bets are player sells and the rugby bets are multi-point sells.

The football losses are all down to useless corners bets, I'm up on betting on the result (win bets or supremacy).

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:25 pm

:thumbs Decent stuff Matt, especially the cricket, I'll PM you my number so you can text me your picks! ;-)

To carry on my analysis in the same vain but for the oval ball sports, anytime bets in Rugby Union just about made a profit, with 24 winners from 84 bets showing a 5.26 point profit. The big negative here is the firms most likely to offer a value price are the ones who are most likely to restrict my stake. Past records also suggest I do well in this market so I'll carry on with these bets.

League has always been more challenging. 8 winners from 42 bets returned a loss of 164.6 points. I won't be giving up but will be more selective come the start of the new Superleague season.

For both codes, it's the same story for player try minutes as it was for goal minutes in football. 1 winner from 15 RU bets and 0 from 2 RL made for a loss of 254.5 points. Sometimes you have to accept that the market makers have you beat and look elsewhere for winners.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:37 pm

To carry on with the goal/try scorer markets, I've had a look at hotshot betting. League is profitable here, to the tune of 42 points, but a 100% record from one solitary bet is hardly conclusive evidence!

Football cost me 68.75 points with 8 winners, 8 partial losses and 7 nillings from 23 bets.

Union cost me 205 points, 11-4-12 from 27 bets.

That gives a clear indication that I need to at least be more selective with these bets. This is one of the markets that fascinate me most in terms of having a method for calculating my own indicative prices and I do think it's worth some further study and analysis. If I can't win when my numbers flag up a buy, maybe I should grow some balls and consider selling!. Bottom line; be more selective and do some research.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:38 pm

Mid year review coming up soon. Spoiler alert; the phrase "must do better" is likely to feature.

Also, my supposed "core market" of anytime goalscorer betting has turned to s*** big time so might need to re-evaluate my approach to that.

Still early days but I've had a reasonable start to my tentative toe dip into the waters of selling.

Will post a summary of my findings in a couple of weeks.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:46 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:38 pm
Will post a summary of my findings in a couple of weeks.
Make that months! :>

Just done the books for August; anytime goalscorer bets have cost me just over a grand this year. Factor in related bets (2 or more, 1st goalscorer, player goal minutes buys and "exotic" bets like header/outside the area etc.) and it's closer to £1,200.

That's the difference between me breaking even so far (give or take less than a tenner) and showing a decent profit.

Conclusion - I can't make these bets pay despite them being my "favourite" types of bets and haven't managed to be more selective since the start of the season.

So, I'm cutting them out altogether for September and will see how I feel after that. Anyone want to sponsor me, call it "Mugtember" like when people give up booze for a month! :)

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:05 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:38 pm
Still early days but I've had a reasonable start to my tentative toe dip into the waters of selling.
As for this, decent start and will be carrying on.

Overall figures sound impressive, 191 bets in 3 months showing 1,136 points profit.

However, it's slightly skewed by a spectacular return in June, 1,026 points from 60 bets. 41 from 48 bets in July and 69 from 83 last month are slightly less emphatic figures!

Still, profit is profit so I'll be carrying on with this, maintaining the current 1 point per bet stake for the time being.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:08 pm

I've just about scraped even in August after an absolute shocker of a result for me when the Aussies got their highest ever score against the All Blacks, and I had sold Aussie multis!!!

That one bet cost me over a grand (& I also managed to lose another £500 the same day on South Africa) so the fact that I've clawed most of it back I'm taking as a good sign.

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:20 pm

Matt wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:08 pm
That one bet cost me over a grand (& I also managed to lose another £500 the same day on South Africa) so the fact that I've clawed most of it back I'm taking as a good sign.
Very much so, if you can take that sort of bad day in your stride!

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:51 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:05 pm
harry_rag wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:38 pm
Still early days but I've had a reasonable start to my tentative toe dip into the waters of selling.
As for this, decent start and will be carrying on.

Overall figures sound impressive, 191 bets in 3 months showing 1,136 points profit.

However, it's slightly skewed by a spectacular return in June, 1,026 points from 60 bets. 41 from 48 bets in July and 69 from 83 last month are slightly less emphatic figures!

Still, profit is profit so I'll be carrying on with this, maintaining the current 1 point per bet stake for the time being.
Overall figures for this are now 322 bets and +2,501 points so you could say it's been a decent month! Overall profit makes it my best month since "records began" (i.e. August last year), being more than 3 times better than the previous best month. Conclusion, carry on selling and extend the ban on backing/buying goalscorers!

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by peanut » Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:20 am

Well done Harry :thumbs , shows the importance of keeping records of your betting. ^/

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:56 pm

It's a sellers market!

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Wed Oct 02, 2019 2:50 pm

:thumbs The more time passes the greater the inclination to think I should stop trying to be clever and find any bets that aren't sells on the spreads! Sticking to £1 per point for now in the majority of markets (varying that for things like tournament totals).

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:54 pm

Just done the books, a profitable month overall but only because I fluked a 3 underdog footy trixie early in the month. I'd have been in the red if it wasn't for that. It was another of those treading water months on the selling front with just £27 profit to show for 89 bets but that's 5 consecutive months of profit so I'm content with that.

In respect of selling, a couple of things have gone from the "sandpit" (paper trade only) to live (real money) this month so we'll see how they go. Also, I'm tracking a few more things in the sandpit this month.

Keeps me busy! :)

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Col » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:05 pm

Well done harry :thumbs

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:15 pm

October was kinder to me than to Harry.

Total staked 10,903 for a profit of 1,762 at 16.2% ROI.

I did ok in the RWC but as usual most profits came from cricket (specifically player sells).

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:07 pm

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:15 pm
October was kinder to me than to Harry.

Total staked 10,903 for a profit of 1,762 at 16.2% ROI.

I did ok in the RWC but as usual most profits came from cricket (specifically player sells).
Well done Matt. By total staked do you mean total return from winning bets + total loss on losing bets (as per the ROI calc you suggested for spreads?) On that basis, my ROI for the month was just 1.06% on a total staked of 2,553 but overall ROI is 23.11% from 12,204.

I also like tracking the ROI figure based on the spread firms' returns on these bets (as they're effectively the buyer it's closer to a simple fixed odds ROI). This month it's just -0.91% for them on a maximum risk of 2,962, overall they're -19.69% on 14,321.

I'm still playing at £1 per point though am inclined to start edging that upwards. Just out of interest, what sort of stakes per point do you typically play (based on, say, a low, medium and high price example). No problem if you prefer not to share.

November's started well, hopefully be another of the occasional very good months. Player touchdown minutes is showing a lot of promise (real money on that) but NFL player performances looks dodgy (paper trade only).

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Re: Review of Betting Performance

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:51 pm

Hi Harry,

Yes, "total staked do you mean total return from winning bets + total loss on losing bets (as per the ROI calc you suggested for spreads?)" that is what I use.

Working out how to stake spread bets is something I'm always pondering, due to the variation in markets. And I'm more than happy to share for two reasons:
    I'm not a big-hitter, but not small-fry either, so I don't think my figures will offend anyone.
      I need to learn more like we all do, so sharing makes sense.

      At the moment I stake as follows:

      Player performance or player runs (cricket) - £5 per point. Sometimes a bit more if I really like the look of something.
      Sup or total goals (football) - £75 or thereabouts.
      Rugby multis - varies depending on the price (& hence volatility), anywhere from £1 to £5.

      My average win or loss at the moment is £106.

      I'm averaging well above a grand a month profit, but I've been trying (& failing) to get up to an average of £2k per month. My best year was 2009 when I made £27k, but I seem to have gone backwards since then!

      I think I am more consistent that ever right now (he says whilst losing money right now on Bangladeshi batsmen) so I guess I should let the stakes creep up.

      Cheers,

      Matt.

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      Re: Review of Betting Performance

      Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:02 pm

      Matt wrote:
      Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:51 pm
      Working out how to stake spread bets is something I'm always pondering, due to the variation in markets. And I'm more than happy to share for two reasons:
        I'm not a big-hitter, but not small-fry either, so I don't think my figures will offend anyone. I suspect I'm still just about in small-fry territory.
          I need to learn more like we all do, so sharing makes sense.

          My average win or loss at the moment is £106. Mine is currently £27.67. I suspect the difference is partly down to my modest staking and partly to the less volatile markets I favour. I appreciate that the more volatile the market, the greater the chance of value being on the sell side.

          I'm averaging well above a grand a month profit, but I've been trying (& failing) to get up to an average of £2k per month. My best year was 2009 when I made £27k, but I seem to have gone backwards since then! About £550 for me across the 5 months since the "Zero Spread Fund" started.
          Thanks Matt, it's all useful stuff given this is relatively new territory for me. My first thought is where to go next with stake. I think the options are £1.25, £1.50 or £2 depending on how crazy I feel like going! :lol

          There are two considerations here, the pure risk element which suggests a degree of caution, e.g. don't want to double stakes in time for the first every heavy losing month. The second is the "staying off the radar" element, which is why I asked for your input. Remind me again which are the markets/firms you struggle to get on to desired stakes (or at all). I suspect I'm way off that but just trying to gauge how much "headroom" I might have!

          A few other metrics I'm recording (got a nice "dashboard" set up; might as well put some of the stuff I learnt at work to good use)!

          Longest winning run: 28 bets (a freak I imagine, came early on and only a couple of others have reached double figures, both 11)
          Longest losing run: 5 bets (the only time it's been >3)
          Worst return from 50 consecutive bets: -160, best = 1059, average = 293.64
          Worst return from 100 consecutive bets: -161, best = 1209, average = 576.64
          Win rate: 69.5% (48% max wins, i.e. 0 make up)

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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by Hoofhearted » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:23 pm

          A good read and thanks for your honest summaries

          It is an area I’ve been pondering going into for a while, but I just need to build up a reasonable bank.

          Watch this space. :lol

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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:24 pm

          :thumbs

          Usually some account opening offers available to get you started, if you've not already got accounts.

          Other thing I meant to mention; my biggest single win so far is +80 and biggest loss -120. Those numbers will be a lot bigger for Matt given he sells the multi points market in rugby! {8

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          Matt
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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by Matt » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:23 pm

          "Remind me again which are the markets/firms you struggle to get on to desired stakes (or at all)"

          In my case it is cricket bets with Spreadex. I can get on in-running (most of the time) because the trader is there I guess. However, 90% of my trades are in advance and I get knocked back totally now. They do let me bet on other sports though, which is a little odd as I think I'm as good at rugby as I am cricket (albeit the volumes are a lot lower).

          Sporting Index let me bet whatever I want, even in my profitable markets. I suspect that's because they have much bigger players than me and I'm very much small fry to them.

          Those numbers will be a lot bigger for Matt given he sells the multi points market in rugby!

          You are not wrong. My biggest loss this year was a sell of Aussie multis that resulted in a hit of £1,010. My biggest win was £407 selling Samoa's multis in a RWC game (sold @ 416 for £1.50, MU @ 145). Fortunately I have more winners than losers!

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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by harry_rag » Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:37 pm

          And another month gone! {8

          Just about profitable although a really bad last day could have seen me finish in the red. 262 points overall with 185 from the selling startegy.

          A month of two halves in that respect as I was 427 points up at the midpoint before falling back for a while then recovering slightly.

          134 bets (most so far) yielded 80 winners, 2 "pushes" and 52 losers. It's the first time the win % has dropped below 60 though, if you factor in the 2 pushes (make up landed on the spread) it's not quite the worst loss % at 38.81.

          The biggest developments were the new records set for worst return from 50 and 100 consecutive bets, -285 and -204 respectively (previous lows were -160 and -161).

          So positive overall, 3rd best profit of the 6 months I've been doing it and survived the worst sustained run of 50 and 100 bets. Maybe there will be a seasonal element to this, partly because there's no Rugby League which was quite profitable. I also think the lower goals and tries totals expected during the Winter months may mean the sell price moves closer to the true price.

          Whatever, on we go, gathering more data and enjoying the ride!

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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by Matt » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:09 am

          November was kind to me with 3,313 points of profit at 12.3% ROI.

          I was helped by a huge volume of test cricket plus the start of the rugby season proper.

          Two days into December though and I am down 682 points already!!!

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          Re: Review of Betting Performance

          Post by harry_rag » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:28 pm

          :) FIve months profit for me but just a daily up or down for you!

          Will see how it goes till year end with a view to upping stakes slightly for 2020.

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