100 bets challenge

[harry_rag]

Certainly unusual for me to be talking to you about an area of betting where I’m the one with the greater knowledge of the event being bet on!

For what it’s worth I’d say your bet has been settled correctly. I assume the “official scoring” you refer to is the judges scoring (Faye and Ashley both got the maximum score) but, in the final, the judges scores are for guidance only and the result is decided entirely by the public vote. Clearly, Stacey won that and the BBC have decided not to call the minor placing based on who polled best. So, the “weighed in” result is, indeed, a 3 way tie for 2nd and 3rd.

Unlucky perhaps, as it’s fairly certain that Ashley is least popular with the public. In past years, someone has been eliminated part way through the final. But, based on how this year’s renewal played out, I feel your bet has been settled correctly, however unlucky you may have been.

[nick]

Cheers, Harry. I'll certainly bow to your expertise on this .

If the BBC do not clarify the places, then clearly the bookies are on to yet another beneficial "scheme" since stakes will always be divided on dead heat rules. Presumably there are always 4 contestants on finals night. Instead of evens (a price I have had no chance of achieving - unless backing the winner in the place market), I have in effect taken a price of 1.33. A bet on top 3 is a con (to the uninitiated, of course ).

[harry_rag]

Number in final and precise format (and clarity of placings) has varied over the years, though I think last year may have been the same as this.

It's a reminder that betting on events like this doesn't come with the same degree of certainty as betting on sports.

As to whether it's a bookie's benefit, they do have to pay out on all 4 contestants in the top 3 market so I suppose it depends how level their book is, though as they'll have a healthy overround I assume it's profitable for them.

As to whether it's a bad bet or not, you'd have to factor in the possibility of this happening and decide whether the price you get in the event of a dead heat is still value if viewed as a bet on the contestant to reach the final. That's probably more likely to be the case where the odds are a bit bigger than evens.

[fredward999]

Hi Nick, Harry

Apologies, I've only just seen your comments. I was also paid out at 2/3 under dead heat rules. It's somewhat frustrating that the BBC don't release voting figures, as Ashley would almost certainly have come last meaning that Fay was placed in the top three.

As you say there is often ambiguity over specials betting and it's frustrating when this happens. In hindsight you could have bet Ashley at large odds for Top 3 and profited nicely based on the dead heat, despite the reality that she finished 4th.

That aside also frustrated that Fay couldn't muster public support despite scoring 120 in the final. Stacey won the competition and was the lowest scorer in the final.

[fredward999]

Time for me to update the results to date, a disappointing start to be honest.

Adam Peaty didn't make the reduced shortlist for SPOTY, this is particularly frustrating as I think he had plenty of loyal voters to reach the top 3.

John Barrowman finished 3rd in IACGMOOH and Nick Knowles went as low as 2/1 I think before being unplaced.

Onwards and upwards!

15 points staked
13 points settled
4 points collected
Running P&L -9pts

Bet 1: Faye Tozer to win Strictly Come Dancing. 2 points at 6/1 (widely available) LOST -2pts
Bet 2; Kate Silverton to win Strictly Come Dancing. 1 point each way 50/1 (3 places 1/4 odds) LOST -2pts
Bet 3; Adam Peaty to win Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 50/1 (3 places at 1/5 odds) LOST -2pts
Bet 4; Fay Tozer for Top 3 In Strictly come dancing. 3 points at Evens (Betfred, hills) WON at 2/3 Dead Heat, +1pt
Bet 5: 1 point - Stephen Hawking at 13/2 with Paddy Power
Bet 6; John Barrowman to win I’m a Celebrity. 2 points at 3/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes LOST -2pts
Bet 7; Nick Knowles 1 point each way at 12/1 (3 places 1/4 odds with B365) LOST -2pts
Bet 8; Alan Turing 1 point at 4/1 (Paddy’s and Betway)

[fredward999]

Bet 9; Ronnie O Sullivan Sport personality of the year. 2 points at 25/1 with Bet365

It is a long time since a snooker player was nominated for SPOTY. Ronnie is on the verge of winning the Masters and around 3/1 for the World Championships. This year he will also surpass 1000 tournament centuries.

In what will likely be a weak year for SPOTY, should Ronnie win the Worlds I can easily see him being nominated and he would walk the vote in my eyes. Definitely some value at 20/1 and above.

[fredward999]

Bet 10; Dina Asher Smith Sports Personality of the year. 3 points at 10/1 (widely available)
Having reflected on this market for a few weeks, I believe that Dina is a good value bet for the award. It is 15 years since a female last won SPOTY and the BBC have been keen to find one (note the Women's Hockey Team being pushed over the line last year).
Dina equalled the fastest time in the 100m last year and has a fantastic chance of winning the event and potentially placing in the 200m. A UK female has never won a medal in the 100m world championships let alone Gold.
If she does win the event I can't see much competition to beat her (aside of course from Ronnie O Sullivan getting nominated!). Next in the betting are Tyson Fury, Anthony Joshua, Lewis Hamilton etc but they have all had SPOTY prior history and I just think the BBC will push their chosen one over the line.

[fredward999]

Bet 11; Laura Muir Sports Personality of the year. 2 points at 33/1
Well, as you can see I am looking for some big value plays in this market and here is another. I have actually taken 90/1 with Royal Panda however for the purposes of this thread I’ll use the widely available 33/1.
Laura is gaining strong media interest and has a good chance of winning medals in the World championships later this year. Should Dina Asher smith sail to oblige, I see Laura as a contender with a strong Scottish vote.

[Col]

Cheers fred

[fredward999]

Bet 12; Adam Peaty Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 150/1 with BetVictor
Peaty has just won two British gold medals and has the swimming world championships later in the year. In a quiet sporting year I think he has a chance of making the short list and is a good each way prospect.

[fredward999]

It's the London Marathon this morning and the conditions look fantastic for fast times (12-13 degrees, no rain and a gentle breeze).

I can't see outside a Kipchoge win however I do think Mo Farah is continuing to improve and will break the British record today. I have looked for some specials on this event and Skybet have a few prices. Based on the conditions I am betting as follows;

Bet 13: 1/2 point Mo Farah to run sub 2.04 at 5/1
Bet 14: 1/2 point Mo Farah to run sub 2.03.30 at 12/1
Bet 15: 1/2 point World record to be broken at 8/1

[fredward999]

Bet 16; 1 point Liverpool and Man City to both win to nil. Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1. Seems like a huge price for the best two teams in the PL requiring a win in their respective 'must win' games.

I will not normally quote promotional prices in this challenge, but seeing as they are accepting up to £50 bets it seemed fair

[fredward999]

26 1/2 points staked
14 1/2 points settled
4 points collected
Running P&L -10 1/2pts

This continues to be a frustrating challenge for me with Ronnie getting back from around 50/1 for SPOTY into 5/1 and then getting knocked out the World Championships by an amatuer!

Bet 1: Faye Tozer to win Strictly Come Dancing. 2 points at 6/1 (widely available) LOST -2pts
Bet 2; Kate Silverton to win Strictly Come Dancing. 1 point each way 50/1 (3 places 1/4 odds) LOST -2pts
Bet 3; Adam Peaty to win Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 50/1 (3 places at 1/5 odds) LOST -2pts
Bet 4; Fay Tozer for Top 3 In Strictly come dancing. 3 points at Evens (Betfred, hills) WON at 2/3 Dead Heat, +1pt
Bet 5: 1 point - Stephen Hawking at 13/2 with Paddy Power
Bet 6; John Barrowman to win I’m a Celebrity. 2 points at 3/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes LOST -2pts
Bet 7; Nick Knowles 1 point each way at 12/1 (3 places 1/4 odds with B365) LOST -2pts
Bet 8; Alan Turing 1 point at 4/1 (Paddy’s and Betway)
Bet 9; Ronnie O Sullivan Sport personality of the year. 2 points at 25/1 with Bet365
Bet 10; Dina Asher Smith Sports Personality of the year. 3 points at 10/1 (widely available)
Bet 11; Laura Muir Sports Personality of the year. 2 points at 33/1
Bet 12; Adam Peaty Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 150/1 with BetVictor
Bet 13: 1/2 point Mo Farah to run sub 2.04 at 5/1
Bet 14: 1/2 point Mo Farah to run sub 2.03.30 at 12/1
Bet 15: 1/2 point World record to be broken at 8/1
Bet 16; 1 point Liverpool and Man City to both win to nil. Betfair Sportsbook, 4/1.

[nick]

I have been reviewing the £50 note market again and there seems to be overwhelming support for Alan Turing.
Stephen Hawking previously advised at 13/2 is currently being laid on Betfair between Evens and 2/1 however I think he is too obvious a choice and died too recently based on historical choices. Alan Turing creates an interesting story and would be very deserving.

Bet 8; Alan Turing 1 point at 4/1 (Paddy’s and Betway)

Well done, Fred .

[fredward999]

Thanks Nick

I actually had a large lay of Hawking in the end so have had around 20% of my bank tied up for far too long!

Nice to get a winner as I’ve had a miserable run so far in this challenge!

[fredward999]

Updated position:

26 1/2 points staked
17 1/2 points settled
9 points collected
Running P&L -8 1/2 pts

Live bets:

Bet 9; Ronnie O Sullivan Sport personality of the year. 2 points at 25/1 with Bet365
Bet 10; Dina Asher Smith Sports Personality of the year. 3 points at 10/1 (widely available)
Bet 11; Laura Muir Sports Personality of the year. 2 points at 33/1
Bet 12; Adam Peaty Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 150/1 with BetVictor

[fredward999]

Ben Stokes has ripped the guts out of the SPOTY market however I still feel that Dina Asher Smith has the potential to finish 2nd.
There is very little competition in the market so a win in either the 100m or 200m should give her a great chance of taking the slot.

Bet 13; Dina Asher Smith in SPOTY market without Ben Stokes - 2 points at 8/1 (Skybet)

[fredward999]

I'll also take a small bet on Laura Muir to finish 2nd at large odds.

Bet 14; Laura Muir SPOTY without Ben Stokes, 1/2 points at 80/1 (Skybet)

[fredward999]

Although it seems she will inevitably win the Silver medal rather than Gold, I am going to add Katarina Johnson-Thompson to my SPOTY book.

She has been in excellent form and is the remaining athlete that has a chance of shining at the World Championships.

I have now backed the three major medal hopes as other than Rugby candidates, there is a lack of competition for second place in SPOTY.

Bet 15; Katarina Johnson-Thompson SPOTY without Ben Stokes, 1/2 point at 66/1 (SkyBet)

[fredward999]

Updated position;

29 1/2 points staked
17 1/2 points settled
9 points collected
Running P&L -8 1/2 pts

Live bets:

Bet 9; Ronnie O Sullivan Sport personality of the year. 2 points at 25/1 with Bet365
Bet 10; Dina Asher Smith Sports Personality of the year. 3 points at 10/1 (widely available)
Bet 11; Laura Muir Sports Personality of the year. 2 points at 33/1
Bet 12; Adam Peaty Sports personality of the year, 1 point each way at 150/1 with BetVictor
Bet 17; Dina Asher Smith in SPOTY market without Ben Stokes - 2 points at 8/1 (Skybet)
Bet 18; Laura Muir SPOTY without Ben Stokes, 1/2 points at 80/1 (Skybet)
Bet 19; Katarina Johnson-Thompson SPOTY without Ben Stokes, 1/2 point at 66/1 (SkyBet)

[fredward999]

Bet 20; No overall majority in the general election. 3 points at 10/11, widely available.

I don’t normally like betting at small odds however I really can’t see any party securing a majority in the general election. The only realistic contender is Boris, however given his behaviour and reading various public forums there appears to be an incredibly strong anti vote (despite a lack of opposition). Without wanting to get into political debate on this forum, I think no majority is the clear bet.

[fredward999]

Bet 21; Karim to win Strictly come dancing. 2 points at 4/1 with William Hill.

I personally see this as a two horse race between Kelvin and Karim. However, Karim seems more likeable and can still deliver a show stopping dance. At the prices he is easily the value bet.

[fredward999]

Bet 22; Defi Du Seuil to win the Tingle Creek. 2 points at 5/2 with William Hill

Really impressed with Defi at the weekend and the trainer has confirmed this is the next target.

[fredward999]

Bet 23; Emma Barton to win Strictly Come Dancing, 1 point at 16/1 (generally available)

Whilst being a clear outsider, there is a pathway to victory for Emma. There is an emerging story of Anton having never won Strictly and he was awarded his first 10s at thr weekend. Should Emma make the final, the other two contenders would be Kelvin and Karim. I see a real possibility of them splitting the vote and allowing Emma to win. It is very possible that she could eliminated this week, however I think there is value in the price.

[fredward999]

Bet 24; Kipchoge to win World Sport Star of the Year, 2 points at 3/1 (Paddy Power)

I have been reviewing the various SPOTY markets and think that Kipchoge looks a good bet to win this award. Breaking the 2 hour marathon mark is really ground breaking, even if it was a little contrived. Reviewing the other contenders, I don't see anything that really stands out as a story of that level. I would have been more than happy with 2/1, so 3/1 is a decent bet for me.

[fredward999]

Updated position;

39 1/2 points staked
24 points settled
9 points collected
Running P&L -15 pts

Live bets:

Bet 10; Dina Asher Smith Sports Personality of the year. 3 points at 10/1 (widely available)
Bet 17; Dina Asher Smith in SPOTY market without Ben Stokes - 2 points at 8/1 (Skybet)
Bet 19; Katarina Johnson-Thompson SPOTY without Ben Stokes, 1/2 point at 66/1 (SkyBet)
Bet 20; No overall majority in the general election. 3 points at 10/11, widely available.
Bet 21; Karim to win Strictly come dancing. 2 points at 4/1 with William Hill.
Bet 22; Defi Du Seuil to win the Tingle Creek. 2 points at 5/2 with William Hill
Bet 23; Emma Barton to win Strictly Come Dancing, 1 point at 16/1 (generally available)
Bet 24; Kipchoge to win World Sport Star of the Year, 2 points at 3/1 (Paddy Power)

Still looking for a break through win... disappointed to be 15 points down but hopefully I can land a couple of the live bets detailed above.