UK General Election Betting

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harry_rag
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UK General Election Betting

Post by harry_rag » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:18 pm

For interest, here's a take on the current state of the markets so we can see how accurate or otherwise it all turns out to be.

Spreads for number of seats:
Tory: 338-343
Labour: 221-226
SNP: 42-44
Lib Dem: 18-22
Plaid Cymru: 3.5-4.5
Green: 1-2
Brexit: 0.25-1.75

Tory Majority: 35-38
Any Majority: 36-39
Turnout %: 67.5-68.5

RP tip is a fixed odds bet on turnout being <67.5%. As the man who didn't deem it worth backing Brexit or Trump at huge odds at bedtime the night before the results, I won't be risking real money but if I had a free bet to use I'd sell the size of any majority at 36 or back no overall majority at 9/4. The pessimist in me leads me to assume that the most likely outcome is one that no-one will be happy with!

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Col
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Re: UK General Election Betting

Post by Col » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:26 pm

What's the result going to be?

It's a massive Fcuk Knows from me. {8

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harry_rag
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Re: UK General Election Betting

Post by harry_rag » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:04 pm

Hmm, will these exit polls be right? Sold Tory majority at 82. Hopefully not much downside (to the bet, not necessarily for the country’s future) and just feels like a bit of hype worth selling.

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Col
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Re: UK General Election Betting

Post by Col » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:25 pm

I think I can be sure of a BJ in the morning ;-)

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harry_rag
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Re: UK General Election Betting

Post by harry_rag » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:55 am

Small profit on the sell, lost a fiver on a lay of the overall majority at 1.02 (just in case the polls were spectacularly out) but won £50 backing <50.5 SNP seats. They were expected to get 55 by the exit poll but everyone in Scotland, including them, seemed to think that was seriously ambitious. RP tip on turnout just about landed, though didn’t bother with that.

Exit poll was pretty accurate but as for the rest, what’s the point of them! Apparently Labour were closing the gap in the run up to polling! *,

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