Cricket World Cup

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harry_rag
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Cricket World Cup

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 22, 2019 5:20 pm

Starting a thread in case anyone fancies a bet or two. I'm just placing one or two antepost bets for interest which I'll post in due course.

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harry_rag
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by harry_rag » Wed May 22, 2019 7:54 pm

My bets and thoughts so far.

Buy Gulbadin Naib in Top Afghanistan bowler market at 6 with SPIN - Effectively that gives you almost 16/1 that he beats just Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi, Mujeed Ur Rahman and Dawlat Zadran when he's no more than 8/1 to beat the whole field with the fixed odds firms. Fair to say I've been seduced by his 6 wicket haul against Ireland yesterday but it seems a decent price in a limited field.

Babar Azam top batsman each way at 25/1 with Hills (1/4 the odds to 4 places) - Seen him tipped on the spreads but favoured the fixed odds options.

Kuldeep Yadav top bowler each way at 28/1 with Skybet (1/4 the odds to 4 places) - Again, saw him tipped and stood out for me when I compared spread total wickets quotes to his price in this market. 25/1 best now but still ok at that price for me.

Any team to be bowled out for <100 runs at 7/2 with Hills - Instinctively appealed and seems to stack up on closer inspection. I make it there have been 17 sub 100 totals in the 11 tournaments with 10 in the 4 played since the turn of the century. Doesn't feel like a 7/2 shot to me! {8

That's the bets, these are still at the "thoughts" stage.

6/4 is widely available for a hat trick to be scored and I've seen 10/11 for one not to be scored. I'm inclined to take the 6/4 as there have been hat tricks in 6 out of 11 World Cups, including all of the last 5 with 2 each in 2003/11/15. Any reason why the trend should stop this year?

I noticed a big disagreement on the total runs for Sri Lanka's Dimuth Karunaratne, with SPIN going 280-295 and SX going 320-340. He's just scored 77 against Scotland in what was his first ODI since the 2015 World Cup. I don't know whether the value lies on the sell or buy side. Also worth noting that Royal Panda have him at 250/1 for top batsman when he's sub 100/1 in the vast majority of places. Any more informed view would bewelcome!

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Matt
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by Matt » Thu May 23, 2019 1:24 pm

Cricket is my biggest punting sport and easily my most profitable. Historically player performance sells were my bread & butter but with the flat tracks lined up for this WC I'm treading carefully.

I had a lot of success with the top-bat markets in the IPL recently and will be attacking this market again. It's a sloppy market that is not priced well by the bookies or betfair in my opinion.

I'm on holiday next week though so I'll be missing the first 3 or 4 games.

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harry_rag
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by harry_rag » Thu May 23, 2019 1:40 pm

Cheers Matt. Having got my head round the structure for this year (less "minnows" but more matches between the top teams) I've decided to take the 6/4 about there being a hat trick. There have been 103 matches between this year's 10 teams over the last 4 World Cups but there will be 48 this time in view of the larger round robin format. There have been 4 hat tricks in those 103 matches, 2 in 2015, 0 in 2011 and 1 each in 2007 and 2003. All in all, this is closer to an even money shot for me.

As those 103 matches have only yielded 2 sub 100 scores (both in 2011) I'm less gung ho about that bet but I've had a saver on <120 at 2/1 with Skybet. There have been 7 instances of that happening, 0, 3, 1 and 3 over the last 4 World Cups.

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Matt
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by Matt » Thu May 23, 2019 1:47 pm

Good luck Harry. Long term bets are not my thing but I wouldn't ague with your hat-trick bet. I'd go a step further and predict it will happen in the last over of a game.

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harry_rag
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by harry_rag » Tue May 28, 2019 3:45 pm

I've waded through 100s of specials markets and added the following to the portfolio. Feel free to let me know if any look especially good or bad to you!

Where relevant, I've compared the spread expectations to the line/price I've taken and had a look at the player stats. I've ranked the bets as A, B or C bets based on my assessment of the value to "muggyness" ratio having looked at them again after a night's sleep.

A Bets (confident the price is value)

Maxwell and Finch to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 7/2 with Lads - stats say this may be a stretch but the spreads have them in for 30 so, at such a big price to hit that line, it seems a solid enough bet.

Woakes and Archer to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 9/4 with Lads - spreads similar here, 30 being pretty much their expected haul but stats seem more encouraging so happy that this is a similarly strong bet despite the shorter price.

B Bets (reasonably happy with these but not quite as confident)

Root to score 500+ runs at 5/4 with Lads - Spreads pitch him at around 525 while elsewhere he's 10/11 to go either under or over 500.5 (down from a higher line previously). Stats suggest none of these prices or lines are way off but I think I'm getting odds against about a coin toss at worst.

De Kock to take 10+ catches at 6/4 with Lads - No spreads as such for this but seems to be the minimum they have him in for when you look at SA wicket keeper performance being pitched around the 600 mark (1 point per run, 10 per catch and 25 per stumping). Again, much closer to a coin toss for me.

Starc and Cummins to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 6/5 with Lads - Spreads have them in for 35 so I think the price should be shorter or the line should be higher. Not a mouthwatering price for a tournament long bet but it was good enough to tempt me in.

Buttler and Stokes to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 3/1 with Lads - Spreads put them in for around 25 so this bet is more likely to lose than win but the price still seems a bit generous.

C Bet (mug/fun punt)

Gayle to hit a 6 in every group game at 20/1 with PP - small stakes, one of those bets that caught my eye and I'd rather be on it and lose than risk the regret of noticing it but choosing not to back it!

fredward999
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by fredward999 » Fri May 31, 2019 1:41 pm

Thanks for the tips Harry

I followed you on a few including the 100 runs bet.

Pakistan today 83/9 and they go on to make 105 x-)

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harry_rag
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by harry_rag » Fri May 31, 2019 2:11 pm

Yes, I was close to counting the winnings on that one myself before the tail wagged a little too vigorously! *,

At least I'd had what I was allowed on the <120 at 2/1 as a saver (with a bit of profit on top) before it got cut to 6/5 best.

Nice to have one in after just 2 matches but, as you say, a shame the 7/2 wasn't landed.

fredward999
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Re: Cricket World Cup

Post by fredward999 » Fri May 31, 2019 2:21 pm

Well done Harry with your saver bet.

Hopefully plenty of time for us to win the other one too :thumbs

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