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Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:25 pm
by harry_rag
No joy today, tries in short supply. 3 point loss on a sell of Tupou try mins at 26 in the Roosters game (was allowed that bet despite a 3 point arb existing) and missed a sell of Tedesco in the same game that would have won (rejected and offered reduced stake with a 1 point arb existing).

Will have a look at tomorrow's game later.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:13 pm
by harry_rag
2 games tomorrow actually.

Tigers v Knights: Joey Leilua to score a try at 9/4 with Fred

Titans v Eels: Phillip Sami to score a try at 23/10, a brace at 15/1 and a hat trick at 160/1, all with Lads (boosted from 9/4, 14/1 and 125/1)


Both players where the try minutes prices suggested the anytime price was worth a second look and where I'm happy enough to take the bet after a look at the player's try scoring stats. Might as well do the anytime double too, 9/4 twice with Fred.

Had a look at Waqa Blake at 9/4 in the latter game but you'd have to have a strong reason to expect him to replicate his 2018 form to take the bet so that's a swerve for me unless Nick comes back with a reasoned case for trusting him!

Other bets vaguely on my radar are Eels hotshots at 59 and Sivo's try minutes at 37 in the same game, purely because there are grounds to argue that selling at such exalted prices is a profitable strategy but they're just paper trades for me for now.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:26 am
by nick
nick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:39 pm
....................................

3) Titans v Eels:
Titans (-7.5) at 10/11 (Bet 365)
Shaun Lane (Eels) to score a try at 15/4 (SX).

...............................................
Eels romp to victory by 46 - 6 :) but sadly Shaun Lane is not amongst the tryscorers.

[I've just realised that I typed Titans (-7.5) originally instead of Eels (-7.5) *, . I suspect Titans (-7.5) was nearer 16/1 so if anyone else (apart from Harry) was interested I hope they were not deceived.]

I definitely chose badly between fixed odds and spreads. The fixed odds bets were 22 points and 38 points over what I needed to win those bets, whereas the supremacy bet I chose only finished 1 point above the buy price and would have succeeded anyway on the minus fixed odds handicap.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:37 am
by harry_rag
Well done Nick, you did a lot better than me so I should’ve just followed you in! Closest I came today was the wrong Leilua scoring.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:50 pm
by nick
As Basil Fawlty would say: "Even that little avenue of pleasure has been cut off".



https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/03/23/nrl ... -pandemic/

:( :( :(

[You'll definitely have to get yourself a dog, Harry ;-) ].

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:17 pm
by nick
The Aussie pundits I've read are all expecting a close and enthralling game tomorrow (7.05 am BST) in the NRL between Canberra Raiders and Manly Sea Eagles at Campbelltown Stadium.

The weather forecast is for persistent showers, albeit easing during the afternoon (Aussie KO time is 4.05 pm). However, there is still a 50% chance of rain and any shower that hovers around the stadium during the game could be very heavy and thundery. Perhaps an opportunity for a multi-points sell even without the possible aid of the weather?

Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles SELL match multis at 336 (SPIN).

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:27 am
by nick
Canberra Raiders 6 v 14 Manly Sea Eagles.

Multis make up at 96 for 240 points profit :) :) .

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:41 am
by Col
Well done nick :thumbs

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:17 pm
by harry_rag
Superleague is back and 4 selections appeal to me today. All at prices that look generous compared to the spreads and are supported by a look at the player stats.

Castleford v Catalans:

Clare to score a try at 6/5 with 888 and Folau to score a 1st half try at 9/2 with Lads

Warrington v Hull KR:

Crooks to score a try at 2/1 with Skybet and Quinlan to score a try at 5/2 with Fred

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:39 pm
by nick
Good luck, Harry :thumbs .

Based on the absence of scrums and the theoretical speeding up of the game, I've gone with a couple of hookers (as Hugh Grant and Wayne Rooney might say :> ). Can see them nipping in from close quarters on a hot day against knackered opponents:

Castleford v Catalan Dragons: BUY Paul McShane try mins at 8 and SMM at 10 (SX)

Warrington v Hull KR: Daryl Clark to score try 5/2 (SX).

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:53 pm
by nick
harry_rag wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:17 pm
Superleague is back and 4 selections appeal to me today. All at prices that look generous compared to the spreads and are supported by a look at the player stats.

Castleford v Catalans:

Clare to score a try at 6/5 with 888 and Folau to score a 1st half try at 9/2 with Lads

Warrington v Hull KR:

Crooks to score a try at 2/1 with Skybet and Quinlan to score a try at 5/2 with Fred
On fire, Harry :thumbs . Folau had a cracking game and does the business for you. Pity Clare fumbled a sitter in the 2nd half. Then Crooks only makes you wait 2 minutes '# .

There is rain forecast in Sydney tomorrow afternoon and evening with possibly heavy, thundery downpours. Sharks v Eels kicks off at 4.05 pm so could be played in difficult conditions, therefore Sharks v Eels SELL match multis at 375 (SPIN).

The other game is Titans v Cowboys to be played in likely excellent conditions at Robina, Queensland. These are both Queensland sides who are struggling badly. The pundits reckon it could be a tight, nervy affair. I think there is enough potential in the price for another SELL of Titans v Cowboys match multis at 517 (SX).

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:30 am
by nick
nick wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:53 pm
.............................................

There is rain forecast in Sydney tomorrow afternoon and evening with possibly heavy, thundery downpours. Sharks v Eels kicks off at 4.05 pm so could be played in difficult conditions, therefore Sharks v Eels SELL match multis at 375 (SPIN).

The other game is Titans v Cowboys to be played in likely excellent conditions at Robina, Queensland. These are both Queensland sides who are struggling badly. The pundits reckon it could be a tight, nervy affair. I think there is enough potential in the price for another SELL of Titans v Cowboys match multis at 517 (SX).
Sharks v Eels make up 160 - profit 215 points :)

Titans v Cowboys make up 400 - profit 117 points :)

A late Quinlan try for you as well, Harry :thumbs . Cracking day '# .

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:51 am
by harry_rag
:clap Very much so, we’ll done on your selections Nick. Also woke to find a decent profit from my 3 overnight “system” sells of player try mins.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:58 am
by harry_rag
A bit last minute on the early game.

Salford v Hull:

Lussick to score a try at 7/2 Fred, Lolohea at 4/1 888 and Tuimavave at 9/4 888

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:00 pm
by harry_rag
And at the last I was seduced by Lad's 4/1 for Kelly to score a 1st half try. 6/4 best for anytime.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:28 pm
by harry_rag
Kelly and Lolohea oblige so a nice profit on the first game. Two more to come.

Wakefield v Wigan: Johnstone to score a try at 6/4 with 888 and to score a 1st half try at 5/1 Lads, Farrell to score a try at 23/10 and to score a 1st half try at 13/2, both with Lads.


Leeds v St Helens: Myler to score a try at 7/2 with Fred

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:14 pm
by harry_rag
A couple of players in the early NRL games that appeal at the prices.

Sharks v Titans: Katoa to score a try at 5/6 with Skybet

Cowboys v Rabbitohs: Feldt to score a try at 11/8 with Skybet and to score a 1st half try at 4/1 with Lads

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:41 pm
by harry_rag
Katoa scored a try but no joy with Feldt. 3 bets in today's games.

St Helens v Castleford: Clare to score a try at 2/1 with Skybet

Wigan v Leeds: Marshall to score a try and Handley to score a try at 7/4, both with 888

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:37 am
by harry_rag
Wipe out on those last 3. 2 for today.

Catalans v Wakefield: Folau to score a 1st half try at 9/2 with Lads and Jowitt to score a try at 4/1 with 888.

Think the Folau bet (a "super boost") is huge value. Was only allowed a tenner on. Just missed 5s for Jowitt but still a bet at 4s.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:37 pm
by harry_rag
Leeds v Salford: Handley to score a try at 5/4 Betway (and a few others) and Evalds first half try at 4/1 Lads.

Rhys Williams try minutes not bad at 16 SPIN (20 with SX) and Myler 9/4 ok as well but trigger not pulled on those so far.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:37 am
by harry_rag
Just perused the early game between Hull KR and Saint Helens and, although he's by no means the most likely try scorer, I've only found one bet that appeals at the price.

Brierley to score a try at 4/1 PP (9/2 with Sportsbook)

2 in 7 this season, 16 to buy with SX but only 12 with SPIN. If the truth lies somewhere in the middle I don't think he should be much more than 3/1.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:40 pm
by harry_rag
One apparently value play in each of tonight's games. Ethan Ryan at 9/4 with Fred for Hull KR and Lolohea at 18/5 (boosted from 7/2) with Lads for Salford. Also sold Wigan hotshots at 74 and Cas's at 63 both with SX.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:18 pm
by Hoofhearted
The Hull KR final result was a bit of a turn up tonight

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:23 pm
by harry_rag
Hoofhearted wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:18 pm
The Hull KR final result was a bit of a turn up tonight
But my bloke not among the tries! *,

A couple of Hull players appeal tonight in their game at Warrington. Shaul and Kelly are both 2/1 with 888 and I think that's generous. Be disappointed not to land at least one of them and solid selections at the price.

Re: Superleague 2020 (And any other club RL)

Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:52 pm
by harry_rag
Teams out for the early game now, 2 value prices for me; Costello anytime at 6/4 Fred (trimmed to odds on in a few places) and buy Senior's try mins at 12 with SPIN (20 elsewhere).