Rugby World Cup 2019

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:10 am

Good luck Matt, added drop goal scored at 15/2 PP.

Saw it tipped at 9/1, seems worth a small bet.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:26 am

Wales going at a point a minute is not the best start for me! *,

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:18 am

Not looking like it's going to be our day!

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:15 pm

The multis MU @ 406. Given how the first 20 minutes went I am a very relieved man!

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:32 pm

Close but no cigar, 1st half did for me in the end though Georgia managed to make a fight of it.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:25 pm

It may look like I've been a bit indecisive with my bets on tomorrow's games but I'd say I've split my stake across the main "shortie" bets and had smaller bets (sometimes smaller than I'd have liked) on the long shots.

Russia +31 at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >10.5 points at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >1.5 tries at 27/20 with Lads
Buy Russia tries squared at 3.7 with SX
Russia to win race to 10 points 9/1 Betway
Russian player man of the match 20/1 Betway
Russia most converted tries 17/1 888
At least 1 yellow card for each team at 11/2 Betway


I'm expecting Russia to at least attempt a more expansive game tomorrow and hoping that fatigue from a short turnaround won't be too much of a factor. Samoa have only won 6 of their 27 games over the last 4 years and only 1 (by 51 v Germany) by more than 20. The yellow card bet is only 5/2 with Hills.

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nick
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by nick » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:46 pm

I wish I could trust Samoa tomorrow because Russia have played their Cup Final having had the honour of opening the tournament in front of a massive, expectant crowd. Russia have named the same starting XV and bench and could be mentally and physically drained.

Samoa put Germany to the sword in their winner-takes-all qualifying games, so it's conceivable that the last 30 mins could witness something similar. The safest way to go may be to buy the try minutes of Samoa subs (53 available, so a couple of late tries would do nicely).

An impact player likely to come off the Samoa bench is scrum half Meleni Matavao who has 9 appearances for Samoa (5 start and 4 sub), scoring 7 tries. Admittedly 4 of these were against Germany, but he has scored against Tonga, Fiji and USA as well. If Russia are indeed knackered when he comes on, it could be a similar scenario to the Germany games where Matavao started and was subbed.

Russia v Samoa: Melani Matavao to score last try 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Russia v Samoa: Melani Matavao to score anytime 11/4 (Hills)
Buy Samoa subs try minutes at 53 (Spreadex)

[I can only get buttons on the fixed odds bets unfortunately, so my main "investment" has to be the spread bet].

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:07 am

I'm torn on this one. Ahead of the game I wanted to be all over Samoa given Russia's four day turn around. However, the prices reflect this and all I've read about Samoa is doom & gloom.

In then end I've gone with the view that Russia will do enough to keep things respectable, especially in the first half. I've sold Samoa multis @ 416.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:27 am

Well this is very pleasant. Samoa have 5 points at HT. :)

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:31 am

:thumbs Well done Matt, should be safe now!

Shame for me that Russia couldn't take advantage of 2 extra men before the break. Yellow for each team is in but was to limited stakes. Accuracy of Samoa's kicking is a bonus for me.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:36 am

Matavao on now and 4/1 for a try with Skybet (40/1 the brace). 3rd drop goal of the tournament arrives as I type.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:23 pm

Thanks Harry. MU @ 145 for a 271 point profit and I'm finally in front for the tournament.

The RWC starts here! :thumbs

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:13 pm

Well done Matt, less good for me but by no means a disaster. At least I landed the handicap and yellow card bets. Looking ahead to the 3 games over the next couple of days, these are my thoughts so far.

Fiji/Uruguay: Don't think I'll be betting on the handicap in this one, too close to call at +31. If you gave me a free bet that I had to use on that market I'd take the +31 but without a great deal of confidence. I do think Fiji will put on a show here, maybe from the start, but finding a value bet to side with them might take some doing.

Italy/Canada: Another trappy one, Italy not a team who do many big margins of victory but Canada are certainly capable of being on the wrong end of a spanking. Again, I'd stick a free bet on the +21 line but I don't think I'll do so with any real money.

England/USA: I think I'll be taking the best available + line on this one (currently +34 at evens). England are a team who often run up a big winning margin but USA have only failed 3 times in the last 4 years with that big a start (twice against Ireland and 64-0 v South Africa in the last World Cup). Next biggest defeat after that is by 23 points v Scotland. Given the circumstances, this looks a more confident pick. Opening game for USA and fairly quick turnaround for a much changed England.

Best check the weather and see if that is likely to be a factor in these games.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:25 pm

I'm only looking one day ahead at a time but I agree with you about tomorrow, very hard to see an angle. Fiji should run all over them but the prices reflect that.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:40 pm

I might be buying into the narrative (players being lucky to get away with yellow rather than red) but tomorrow's game certainly won't be one for shrinking violets. With that in mind, I've bought bookings at 16 with SX (was 14 just before I bet, 19 with SPIN) and had a bit on a red card at just better than 9/1 with Hills (dutching 16/1 and 25/1 for which team will get the first red card). Hills go 7/2 for a yellow card in both halves and 4/1 a yellow card for each team which might not be a bad alternative angle to the spread bet. Red card is 9/1 in a couple of other places.

Only other bet so far is Veitokani to score a try at 5/4 with Fred.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:23 pm

Had a few late bets based on a tip I saw elsewhere. Didn't look at Uruguay tryscorers but I'm 100% certain I'd have taken this bet if I had.

Kessler to score a try at 10/1 with Fred and 2 or more at 130/1 with Lads (using boost, 150/1 with 365). Also bought Uruguay front 5 try minutes at 12 with SX. The other 4 are makeweights but it's still a decent enough bet.

He's scored 12 tries in 34 starts and 6 in the last 5 (two braces).

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:03 am

Couldn't have got that more wrong from a betting perspective but what a game!

I called the handicap right but didn't back it and backed a load of bets that lost. Only consolation was quite a few missed kicks for the antepost bets.

On to tomorrow now.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:24 pm

I didn't see the game but it was certainly not a result I saw coming! Glad I swerved it.

Tomorrow there is an interesting game between Italy & Canada, and I've decided that a points buy @ 51 is the way forward.

Canada were dreadful in the recent Americas Rugby Championship, losing 4 out of 5 games, but they did average 26 points scored in those games. With Italy having already conceded 22 points against Namibia that will give Canada some belief that they can score a few here.

However, I see Italy running out comfortable winners, despite the quick turnaround, and a similar score to the Namibia game would not surprise me.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:31 pm

Good luck Matt. Small interest bets on Canada 4+ tries at 7/1 PP and both teams 2+ tries in each half at 66/1 with PP, Van der Merwe brace and hat trick at 15/1 and 130/1 with Lads.

Taken USA +34 at evens in the other game.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:02 pm

I've also bought USA front 5 try minutes at 8 with SPIN. That's largely on the back of Joe Taufete'e who has scored 18 tries in 16 starts for the USA! Not the worst anytime bet at 9/2 but I just missed 6/1 with Lads so will stick to the spread bet (with a quid on him scoring a brace at 130/1 with Lads).

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:46 am

130/1 would be nice Harry!

I'm struggling to find an angle on the England game so i've bought Jonathon Joseph's as an interest bet. Looking at the bench and likely changes he should play the full 80, so i'm hoping he can get on the scoresheet late on at USA tire.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:30 pm

Everyone scoring apart from JJ!

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:45 pm

Unlucky Matt. Galling that USA could be so close to the handicap despite the gulf in performances between the teams!

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:16 pm

For tomorrow so far, small treble on Tonga +27, Ireland -20 and Namibia +61. All evens with Hills, treble boosted to 8.724. Also bought Namibia multi points at 13 with SX.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:42 am

Apologies for being late on parade. I was on Tonga multis @ 51 which MU @ 35 so a little profit there. Next up I've sold Japan multis @ 74 and bought CJ Standers TM's @ 19.

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