Rugby World Cup 2019

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harry_rag
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Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:41 pm

Starts a week on Friday, in Japan. Been reading reports that the group stages could be affected by the weather, with it being Typhoon season in that part of the world.

Group games that have to be cancelled won't be rescheduled and will be regarded as a 0-0 draw. If abandoned in the first half they would be classed as a draw but any points or bonus points scored would stand. From half time onwards the score would stand as the result.

This has lead me to cook up the following hare brained scheme, on which i would welcome any thoughts. {8

The spreads for the 4 pool indices award 50 points to the winner then 30, 20, 10 and 0 down to 5th place. You can buy the 8 group "rags" at a collective price of 51 (Samoa, Russia, Canada, Namibia, Tonga, USA, Georgia and Uruguay).

Worst case scenario is an 11 point loss if all 8 teams occupy the bottom two spots in their respective groups. Should just one of those teams manage 3rd place your worst case scenario is a 1 point loss and 2 would mean at least a 9 point profit. Is there enough scope for weather related chaos to justify a buy at 51, risking a maximum loss of 11 times your unit stake?

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:47 am

I don't see two of those sides making 3rd in their groups. One maybe, if the weather gods are with you, but not two.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:05 pm

:thumbs Cheers Matt, was worth considering but think I'll swerve it.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:01 pm

Both spread firms have some tournament totals markets up now, here are the market prices you can buy or sell at.

Total points: 2600-2625

Total Tries: 310-317

Total Drop Goals: 7

Total Yellow Cards: 53-55

Total Red Cards: 3.5-3.75

Total Bookings Points: 610-625

Total Draws: 0.75-0.9

Total Ton-Ups: 17 (aggregate total of points >100 in an individual game)

Will be taking a closer look tomorrow.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:40 pm

Still looking at the antepost markets, especially the spreads where I think I've found a great price. I've had these bets so far.

Argentina to win at 40/1 with Hills (using free bet that was due to expire)
Ireland to win at 16/1 with 888 (made use of a limited time 100% odds boost)
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 with 888 (as above but 50%)
Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Buy total drop goals at 6.75 with SPIN


The first three of those are just small bets making use of freebies and offers. The other three are ones where I think the odds may be slightly generous, the strongest selection being the buy of drop goals (8 in 2015 then 20, 14 and 23 going back to 2003). The days of 20+ may be gone but there doesn't seem much downside to a buy at 6.75.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:39 pm

Will expand on this when time allows but I think these are really good bets, whether based on the spread expectations for this year or stats from the past 4 World Cups. Would welcome any thoughts from those with actual knowledge of the sport rather than just my dry number crunching!

Sell total successful conversions at 230 and buy total missed kicks at 130, both with SPIN.

Successful conversions have been 194, 181, 211 and 244 in the last 4 World Cups (latest one first) for an average of 207.5. I'm still digesting stats for kicking accuracy overall but I'm getting a feel for 150 being closer to the ball park for missed kicks. If you google "rugby world cup statistical report" you can find the detailed official reports for the last few World Cups.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:44 pm

Ok, gird you loins, here comes my 3 part review of the current spread markets! Not sure it'll be of interest to many on here but I've done the work so might as well post it. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets.

Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835)
Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets.

Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332)
Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered.

Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4)
Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at.

Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550
Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest.

Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206)
Thoughts: No strong view on this one.

Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244)
Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%).

Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23)
Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market.

Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284)
Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5.

Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647)
Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator!

Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66)
Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:45 pm

Part 2!
Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015)
Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me.

Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300)
Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30)
Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0)
Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved.

Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against.

Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1)
I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price.

Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1)
Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals.

One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:46 pm

Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.

Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins)
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140
Biggest winning margin: 91-96
Highest scoring game: 105-110
Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5
Fastest try (seconds): 75-78
Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27
Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36
Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5
Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75
Highest shirts in a match: 212-220
Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:29 pm

Quick post re my current fixed odds portfolio. You'll be relieved to hear I haven't got the energy to go into as much detail as I did with the spread markets!

Argentina to win at 40/1 Hills
Ireland to win at 16/1 888
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 888

Thoughts: These three can be filed under "using an odds boost or free bet before it expired".

Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Any player to score 100+ points in the tournament at 5/1 with Betway

Thoughts: I'd taken the worse price and terms with Hills before I saw the second bet (don't think it was available at the time). My gut feel is it was just about a bet at 9/4 and is decent value at 5/1 (though I was limited to small stake).

Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score 6+ tries in a match at 16/1 with Betway
Any player to score 8+ tries in the tournament at 9/4 with Betway

Thoughts: Basically, all bets where my gut feel told me the line and price combine for a bit of value, with due regard to prices elsewhere and stats across the last 4 World Cups.

South Africa v New Zealand final at 10/3 with Hills
Thoughts: Sub 3/1 virtually everywhere else, Rugby Vision's ratings assess this as around a 28% chance of happening. Whilst I wouldn't follow their view slavishly it's certainly worth paying some regard to them and I felt this was worth a go.

Total drawn games >0.5 at 6/5 with Lads
Thoughts: Close to a coin toss for me with no draws perhaps the less likely outcome. I'd rather take the 6/5 for this side of the line than the 5/4 for <0.5.

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Col
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Col » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:34 pm

Good luck harry :thumbs

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:02 pm

Cheers Col, looking forward to it. Be glad when it starts as gone a bit "deep dive" on the antepost markets! {8

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by PlaceWinner » Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:55 am

Good stuff Harry

My best bet is in the Top Pointscorer market

Owen Farrell @ 4-1 [Skybet]

Easily got this job done at the Six Nations
"This will not be beaten"

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:23 pm

Good luck Harry.

First bet placed for me is a sell of Russia multis v Japan @ 29 with SX. You can buy at 28 with SPIN for those that like that sort of thing.

Russia shouldn't be here at all. Romania, Spain and Belgium were docked points for fielding ineligible players hence the Ruskies got in. They lost to both Connacht and Jersey in their warm-up games which says it all really.

(They then play Samoa four days after this game, and that will be Samoa's first game. Back Samoa at any price/h'cap in that one.)

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:44 pm

Good luck guys. Here's my bets on the opening game.

Russia +41 at evens with Skybet
Basically, if you discount games against Korea and Hong Kong, Japan rarely score 41 points, let alone win by that big a margin. Some people got some attractive low lines for Japan before Russia's recent poor results but I think the market has over reacted and I think Russia are more likely than not to stay within that start.

Russia to be shown the first yellow card at 15/8 with PP and >1.5 total cards shown at 3/1 with Hills
I just think both prices err on the generous side. >0.5 cards is odds on and Russia have to be favourites to receive the first one. On past experience I was expecting 9/4 to be the best price for 2 or more cards so 3/1 seems worth a go.

Anytime tryscorers: Selskiy at 17/2 with SX, Ostroushko at 9/1 with 888 and (all 14/1 with Lads); Gadzhiev, Vavilin and Fedotko
One will show a profit, I have happy memories of landing two 18/1 Russian tryscorers in one game back in 2011 so couldn't resist having a look at the prices for tomorrow.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:50 am

Moving on to Saturday's games.....

Sell Fiji multis @ 88 - Fiji scored 11, 13 & 13 in their three games via tier 1 nations at the last WC. Despite bags of natural talent the international game is simply too well organised for them (they are unable to get their players together anywhere near as often as they need to). Australia always peak at WC's and with Pocock & Hooper back in tandem they should deprive Fiji of a lot of the ball.

Sell Argie multis @ 100 - I don't see Argentina scoring 20+ points here. France leaked points galore away at Ireland and England in the six nations, but going to the Aviva and Twickenham is a very different proposition to playing Argentina in Japan. They have also improved markedly since deciding to play their players in their right positions. Sanchez won't miss many kicks for the Argies but I have this as a France win (although it will be funny if they lose!).

Sell New Zealand sup @ 6 - this could well be the same two teams that we see in the final in a few weeks. There really isn't that much to choose between them but I think the conditions will suit SA's territorial game. Sadly I will miss the game live as I will be watching my youngest son play in an U13's game!

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:52 am

Russia scoring a 4th minute try was not the start I wanted! Nothing for them since then though so a tense second half for me.

I've added a buy of Japan points @ 43 (12 on the board already). Russia are going to really struggle in the second half, Japan are much fitter and will have better strength in depth on the bench.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:51 pm

Net loss for me; comfortable win on the handicap bet but no joy with the rest.

Just taken an interest in the handicaps on tomorrow's games so far, treble with Hills (boosted) pays 8.724:

Australia -15, France -1, South Africa +7

Done the 3 singles, all at evens (got -14 Australia with Betway)
.

Strongest selection of the 3 for me is SA +7 though none are as confident as the Russia bet today.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:58 pm

Losing start for me too due to the HT buy of Japan points.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Fri Sep 20, 2019 7:13 pm

Bought Argentina front 5 try minutes at 6 with SX.

My gut reaction was it seemed a low price (9 to buy elsewhere). Stats aren't spectacular for the players in question but, to be honest, it's such a cheap buy I'd rather buy it and lose than swerve it and see a high make-up now I've considered it. Think that's me done for tomorrow's games.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:50 am

New Zealand/South Africa:

Yellow card 5/4, Red card 14/1 (Lads or Sportingbet)
NZ first yellow card 12/5, >1.5 total cards 3/1 (Hills)
Yellow card both teams 6/1 (Betway)

Garces apparently not shy of carding the All Blacks and these prices all seem reasonable for an added interest. Big difference of opinion on the spreads, as low as 11 to buy and as high as 16. I’d rather back a yellow at odds against than buy bookings at 11.

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:40 pm

*, If only I'd not seen the stat that drew me into those card bets! Decent day otherwise with 2 out of the 3 handicaps and a 37 point profit on Argentina front 5 try minutes.

For tomorrow I'm just doing two of the handicaps, singles and the double.

Namibia +31 with Hills and Tonga +45 with Lads (double with Lads at +30 and +45).

I'd take Ireland -8 if you pushed me for a selection but it's too close to put money on. Gone for them to win by 1-10 points at 9/4 Betway which seems a reasonable pick and is sub 2/1 in most places.

Only other bet so far is a buy of Namibia's multi points at 29 with SPIN (up to 35 now but was 24 just prior to me deciding to make the bet earlier).

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:38 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:40 pm
For tomorrow I'm just doing two of the handicaps, singles and the double.

Namibia +31 with Hills and Tonga +45 with Lads (double with Lads at +30 and +45). :) :) :)

I'd take Ireland -8 if you pushed me for a selection but it's too close to put money on. Gone for them to win by 1-10 points at 9/4 Betway which seems a reasonable pick and is sub 2/1 in most places. :(

Only other bet so far is a buy of Namibia's multi points at 29 with SPIN (up to 35 now but was 24 just prior to me deciding to make the bet earlier). :) Made up at 105
Shame I didn't quite trust Ireland to cover the handicap as it would have made for a nice treble but can't complain about the overall return. Thinking I might be taking the big start again for Georgia against Wales tomorrow.

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Col
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Col » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:52 pm

Nice one :thumbs

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