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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm
by harry_rag
Tomorrow's Force v Brumbies game has thrown me a bit of a puzzle. First thing to catch my eye was that SX quote Brumbies hotshots at 38-42 while SPIN go 57-61. Either that was going to be a chasm of an arb or there was a difference in the players, which turned out to be the case.

Both include the trio of Banks. Kata and Wright but SX add Kuridrani (try mins as high as 13 to buy) while SPIN favour Faingaa (one of the front 5 who are as high as 27 to buy). Faingaa has 20 tries in 33 career games and, looking at the other 4, pretty much represents the whole of that try minutes price. If you use the "standard formula" to convert try minutes prices to hotshots then the SX price looks about right but, even allowing for the impressive Faingaa being worth the whole 27, the SPIN sell price looks at least 7 points too high. I've ended up having 2 slightly contradictory bets.

Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out.

Let the cards fall how they may! :)

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am
by harry_rag
harry_rag wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free Made up at 0 :(

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out. Made up at 25 :thumbs

Let the cards fall how they may! :)
One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
by nick
harry_rag wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am
............................................

One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!
No comment :lol :lol .

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:07 am
by nick
nick wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
..............................

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).
Multis make up at 144 for 235 points profit :) .

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:13 am
by harry_rag
:thumbs Well done Nick. Even as a confirmed seller now I still have a blind spot about selling multis markets. Something to work on I think.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 am
by nick
Weather was really bad, Harry - that's the key for me usually.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/andrew-mcc ... 4b4ad92f4c

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:29 pm
by Col
Lovely stuff nick :clap