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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:07 am
by Matt
Unlucky nick. I was away but would have gone with something similar for sure.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am
by nick
Matt wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:07 am
Unlucky nick. I was away but would have gone with something similar for sure.
3 tries in opening 20 mins had me salivating, Matt, but Sale declared after that and only notched one more {:( .

Despite the terrible weather today in Dublin I think there are one or two tryscorer bets for Leinster v Cheetahs in the Pro 14. Cheetahs will feel they are on another planet in the likely terrible conditions compared to their fast, dry, hot Bloemfontein. Leinster's pack could have a field day so I'm immediately drawn to the scoring records of their back row and hooker. The two players I like are Max Deegan (8) and Ronan Kelleher (2).

According to Wikipaedia Deegan has 59 tries in 168 appearances for Leinster. Many of his games have not been at no. 8, but he has recently scored twice against Ulster, twice against Connacht and once against Lyon from that position. Kelleher has had a spell of absence but had a purple patch back in the Autumn with a hat-trick in one game. He has apparently scored 7 tries in his 10 Leinster appearances.

I've backed Max Deegan at 9/4 (Bet 365) and Ronan Kelleher at 2/1 (SX).

Given that Deegan and Kelleher both appear in SPIN's hotshots, along with wingers McFadden and Dave Kearney, I've had a modest buy at 41. Spreadex stick traditionally to backs for their hotshots priced at only 20-23. [This is available FreeSports - channel 422].

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:19 pm
by harry_rag
nick wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am
I've backed Max Deegan at 9/4 (Bet 365) and Ronan Kelleher at 2/1 (SX).

Given that Deegan and Kelleher both appear in SPIN's hotshots, along with wingers McFadden and Dave Kearney, I've had a modest buy at 41. Spreadex stick traditionally to backs for their hotshots priced at only 20-23. [This is available FreeSports - channel 422].
This will be interesting then as I've sold the same hotshots at 37! 0^

I'll be honest and say that it looks like a seriously awry price to me, not just a routine sell but one in the top 10% of clearest value. Obviously events may go on to not support that view and reward you but the price seems high to me.

Not sure if you can make a case for buying their front 5 minutes at 19 but, for me, the hotshots price is still too high even if Kelleher alone was worth 19 in the try minutes market.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:20 pm
by harry_rag
ps - should have checked with each other first and we could have both bet at the midpoint! ;-)

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:15 pm
by nick
nick wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:46 am


................................ Leinster's pack could have a field day so I'm immediately drawn to the scoring records of their back row and hooker................................................................................
4 tries from Leinster's back row and hooker. Unfortunately for me the one member of the back row who did not score was Deegan, although Kelleher went over just on half time :) . Leinster looked like romping away leading 36-0 after 51 mins - then did not add another point :snooze .

Well done with the hotshot sells, Harry, although you must have been pretty nervous if watching the game ;-) .

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:45 pm
by harry_rag
harry_rag wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:19 pm
Not sure if you can make a case for buying their front 5 minutes at 19
Made up at 75! *,

Cheers Nick and well done on Kelleher. Wasn't watching but nervously keeping an eye on my phone while out and about!

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm
by harry_rag
Tomorrow's Force v Brumbies game has thrown me a bit of a puzzle. First thing to catch my eye was that SX quote Brumbies hotshots at 38-42 while SPIN go 57-61. Either that was going to be a chasm of an arb or there was a difference in the players, which turned out to be the case.

Both include the trio of Banks. Kata and Wright but SX add Kuridrani (try mins as high as 13 to buy) while SPIN favour Faingaa (one of the front 5 who are as high as 27 to buy). Faingaa has 20 tries in 33 career games and, looking at the other 4, pretty much represents the whole of that try minutes price. If you use the "standard formula" to convert try minutes prices to hotshots then the SX price looks about right but, even allowing for the impressive Faingaa being worth the whole 27, the SPIN sell price looks at least 7 points too high. I've ended up having 2 slightly contradictory bets.

Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out.

Let the cards fall how they may! :)

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am
by harry_rag
harry_rag wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free Made up at 0 :(

Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out. Made up at 25 :thumbs

Let the cards fall how they may! :)
One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
by nick
harry_rag wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am
............................................

One nil to the automated bets there, no joy with the bet using my judgement!
No comment :lol :lol .

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:07 am
by nick
nick wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
..............................

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).
Multis make up at 144 for 235 points profit :) .

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:13 am
by harry_rag
:thumbs Well done Nick. Even as a confirmed seller now I still have a blind spot about selling multis markets. Something to work on I think.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 am
by nick
Weather was really bad, Harry - that's the key for me usually.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/andrew-mcc ... 4b4ad92f4c

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:29 pm
by Col
Lovely stuff nick :clap

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm
by nick
The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:38 pm
by harry_rag
nick wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm
The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.
Be rude not to follow up with a buy at 7 with SPIN tonight, just in case it's one of those "delayed reaction" winners! :)

Certainly knocks the fixed odds prices (13/5 best) into a cocked hat.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:53 pm
by harry_rag
There are "routine" sells and there are "interesting" sells and I try and only post the latter. There's one tonight in the Sale v Quins cup game, with hotshots at 31-35 SX but 44-48 with SPIN. Unsurprisingly, there's a difference between the 4 players each firm has selected, with SX choosing Hammersley and SPIN opting for van Rensburg. The other 3 players with each firm are Solomana, James and Yarde.

Whilst Hammersley is worth less based on the respective try minutes quotes, there's not a huge amount in it. He's pitched at 6-8 while van Rensburg is 10-12 (based on best prices). If I use the try mins prices to estimate fair hotshots prices I get 32.6 for SX and 34.9 for SPIN.

All in all, Sale hotshots look a value sell at 44 with SPIN

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:55 am
by harry_rag
:thumbs No tries for any of the players so a make up of zero for the maximum profit of 44 x stake.

In the interest of transparency I should say that my only other bet on the game was a "routine" sell of Sale substitute try minutes at 39 which made up at 78 for a 39 point loss, meaning I only made a small net profit on the game. That's the nature of these bets though, it's all about sticking to the script and turning a long term profit.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm
by harry_rag
Here's another "interesting" sell ( the routine sells are doing ok having just put a toe over the 6000 point profit line).

Bulls v Griquas: Sell Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN (Gio Aplon,Travis Ismaiel,Cornal Hendricks,David Kriel). SX go 63-68 with Gans in place of Hendricks. Gans' try minutes are on offer at 28-30 while Hendricks are only 19-20. So a 10 point lower hotshots price when the player who differs has a 10 points lower try minutes price! {8

Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:26 pm
by harry_rag
harry_rag wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm
Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.
Again, no tries for any of the 4 players so the maximum profit of 73 x stake. Having been transparent with my other losing bet on the previous selection, it only seems fair to mention that the other "routine" bet on this game was a sell of the Bulls sub try minutes at 88 which also made up at zero for a profit of 88 x stake! :>

One for today in a similar vein thought closer to routine than the previous selection (this has a perceived edge of 11% compared to 17% and 20% for the last 2).

Glasgow v Scarlets: Sell Glasgow hotshots at 31 with SPIN (Tommy Seymour, Nick Grigg, Ratu Tagive, Ali Price)

SX go 29-33 with Jones instead of Price. Jones can be bought or sold at 14 while Price is on offer at 8-10. "True" prices are 30.5 SX (bang in the middle of the spread) but 27.6 for SPIN (over 3 points below the sell price). Always nice to be selling at prices closer to yesterday's than today's but I've placed enough of these bets to be happy with this one, win or lose. To better serve the interests of transparency, I'll mention my routine bets upfront, I've sold both teams' sub try minutes, at 50 and 40 respectively.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:09 pm
by harry_rag
Clean sweep there though the away subs were only 30, not 40 as I said. A total of 111 points profit on the game. :thumbs

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm
by harry_rag
Just spotted there’s an early game tomorrow and it throws up another one of those “interesting” bets.

Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:50 pm
by harry_rag
harry_rag wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm
Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.
36 points profit on the hotshots (8 points for a non-runner but no tries for the remaining 3 players) but a 24 point loss on the sub try minutes so a 12 point net profit on the game. One for tonight in the Cheetahs v Bulls game, on the basis that a perceived edge of 17.8% qualifies as "interesting".

Sell Bulls hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Gio Aplon, David Kriel, Cornal Hendricks, Jade Stighling). SX have the same quartet at 30-34 and i get a notional value of just under 29. While a sell at 30 would probably be value but hardly an exciting one, selling at 4 points higher seems like a solid enough bet.

Same game I'm also selling Cheetahs hotshots at 47 and home and away sub try minutes at 35 and 40.