Other Rugby Competitions

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:00 am

Well done harry :thumbs

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:58 am

Cheers Col. Very early days but I'm enjoying betting on this market and learning more about the dynamics (all unencumbered by any real knowledge of the actual game)! Pretty sure results so far include a generous dollop of beginners luck but happy to carry on with the modest bets while I continue gathering data and crunching the numbers.

Had a look at Toulouse/Clermont and decided to sell at 274 with SPIN (you can buy at a point less with SX).

Not the most obviously wrong looking price I've seen but it's a high hurdle to cover. The game has a slightly higher than average points expectation but even more above average kicking metres price.

I have 4/23 Top 14 games going over that spread (all edging into the 300s) and just 1 from 6 involving these two teams.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:55 pm

:( Well that's certainly the end of the beginners luck phase!

I guess sellers are never going to be smiling after a 91 point ding dong; I make it a 204 point loss and, TBC, the highest recorded total since (my) records began.

Thankfully the stakes are still small (50p per point). I'll tot up tomorrow to see what the bottom line looks like now.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:31 pm

Quick update re how the kicking metres bets have gone since I started betting on individual matches.

8 wins from 11 matches (5 from 6 when selling and 3 from 5 buying)

Total profits from winning bets = 327 (231 from sells + 96 from buys)
Total losses from losing bets = 341 (204 from sells + 137 from buys)
Net profit/loss = -14 points (+27 from sells -41 from buys)

So sells profitable despite that massive loss yesterday, buys loss making due to very small wins and slightly larger losses. Carry on for now but it may prove to be a case of focusing on sells going forward. There could be an argument to say I was a little over confident after a decent start and that the "bad" sell yesterday was too marginal to have been a bet so maybe be a bit stricter with what I do and don't play. No need to force it.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:14 pm

Sharks/Reds: Buy kicking metres at 196 with SPIN

The lowest quote for any of tomorrow's 3 games, all 8 Chiefs games this season have gone over this line and 5/8 Lions games (but none of the last 3).

Slight negative tone struck by the recent Lions games but overall strong enough numbers for me to buy at that price.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:05 pm

Having surveyed tomorrow's early action across both codes I've alighted on these 2 bets as being reasonably priced.

Crusaders/Lions: Kwagga Smith to score a try at 4/1 Sportingbet
Panthers/Rabbitohs: Cody Walker to score a try at 23/10 with 888

Done the double with Betway at 7/2 and 21/10.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:58 pm

One out of two (Walker) for a small profit. :thumbs

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:21 pm

:thumbs

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:15 pm

3 tomorrow in the NRL game between Broncos and Sharks, Gillett and Nikorima at 4/1 Skybet (and elsewhere) and Dugan at 2/1 with 365.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:09 pm

End of season top of the table clash between London Irish and Ealing could be a bit of a try-fest, especially for the home side with some of their players having their swansong with the club with a festive afternoon programmed to celebrate their return to the Premiership. Ealing have bigger fish to fry next week with the Championship Cup Final and have rotated loads this afternoon: http://www.ealingtrailfinders.com/news/ ... rish-clash

Buy London Irish tries at 5.1 v Ealing Trailfinders (SPIN).

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 04, 2019 10:48 am

Any take on today's Army v Navy game Nick (live on Forces TV)?

Not my market but think I'd be a seller of multis at 715 if you offered to write off any losses for me! :)

History suggests total points spreads of 53-56 may be a bit on the highe side.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat May 04, 2019 12:10 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 10:48 am
Any take on today's Army v Navy game Nick (live on Forces TV)?

Not my market but think I'd be a seller of multis at 715 if you offered to write off any losses for me! :)

History suggests total points spreads of 53-56 may be a bit on the highe side.
No idea to be honest, Harry, although thanks for the heads up re Forces TV. May watch for a while to see if anything in running looks worth a dabble.

I have looked at the Championship Cup Final which is hosted at Ealing Trailfinders ground with Ealing having the good fortune to be at home on their plastic pitch v London Irish. I can't help thinking that Irish may not be 100% fixed on this game since it may be a bit of an anti-climax to their main (successful) goal of regaining their Premiership position. I saw the recent league match between the sides and Ealing were very unfortunate only to score 12 points at Irish's ground and the 33-12 defeat really flattered the winners.

Ealing score loads of points at home. It could be a very open affair so I've had a buy of Ealing Trailfinders tries at 2.6 (SPIN).

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 04, 2019 12:49 pm

:thumbs I’ll go 50-50, tries at 2.6 & SX hotshots at 26.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun May 05, 2019 10:33 am

harry_rag wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 12:49 pm
:thumbs I’ll go 50-50, tries at 2.6 & SX hotshots at 26.
Small profit thanks to Ealing's 3 tries :) . Must admit I didn't check SX hotshots, Harry - did they turn out OK for you?

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun May 05, 2019 12:21 pm

:thumbs First two tries were hotshots so a 24 point profit. Thanks for flagging the game (think it might have been my only winner on the day)! Shame they didn't quite maintain that early momentum.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:55 am

RL Challenge Cup tie with a local derby element this afternoon between Bradford Bulls and Halifax to determine which Championship club has the rare honour of making it to the semi-final against the Super League big boys. Both sides are coming off the back of very poor performances last time out. The BBC cameras are there, and it's likely to be a tight nervous affair with so much at stake. In addition the Met Office forecasts heavy rain starting at 2 pm (kick off 2.45) with a lighter spell then heavy rain returning from 4 pm onwards.

This all suggests a possibly low-scoring affair. Hence have backed under 45.5 match points at 5/6 (Hills) and also a modest sell of match mutis at 484 (SX).

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 02, 2019 12:20 pm

Good luck Nick (but, perhaps not too much)!

Found 4 tryscorers at prices that appeal. 6/5 Grant, 6/4 Ryan, 19/4 Farrell (boosted) and 9/4 Tyrer.

All Corals or Lads bar the last one with Skybet.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:50 pm

Well done with Tyrer, Harry :thumbs .

Only 6 points at HT so the under 45.5 came in, and the match multis made up at 180 for a 304 points profit :) :) .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm

Well done Nick, Tyrer my worst result due to limited stakes! *,

Did have a bit on Halifax when I spotted Fred had them at 6/4 as an enhanced offer.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:13 pm

Well done nick :clap

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:06 pm

Cheetahs/Munster: Sold both hotshots in this game with SPIN.

Cheetahs at 60: 3 in common here (Smith, Small-Smith and Volmink) with SPIN having Dweba and SX Fouche. Fouche quoted at 13-16 by both firms, Dweba in the front 5. Both 2/1 best fixed odds. SX go 55-59. I think the 60 is a little high but not really a standout, unlike;

Munster at 41: SX just 28-31, Sweetnam, Scannell and Daly in with both firms, SPIN have Haly rather than Goggin. Daly perhaps a more likely tryscorer than Gogging but not enough to justify anything like a 10 point swing in the price.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:08 pm

Late Smith try turns a 10 point profit into a 15 point loss on the Cheetahs hotshots (with Dweba, who wasn't in the SX hotshots, scoring one as well) but a 41 point profit on the Munster hotshots with their only try scored by Goggin who was only in the SX quartet. 26 point net profit better than nowt.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:34 pm

Two sells for me in the Edinburgh/Dragons game, van der Merwe at 33 and Scott at 21, both with SX.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:33 pm

Sold Leinster hotshots at 58 with SPIN (Kearney, McFadden, Henshaw and Kelleher).

Can't get a value greater than 49 however I crunch their try minutes prices. SX go just 48-52 with Cronin in for Henshaw. No try minutes quote for Cronin as he's in the front 5 (as high as 42 to buy) and he's a best price evens anytime. Henshaw ranges from 8/5 to 7/2 but is easy to back at >2/1 and his try minutes are no higher than 12-15.

It's quite possible the 4 named player run riot and cost me money (3 tries or more would see to that) but I think this price is too high and by more than the average margin that I tend to see.

Apart from that, just a couple of paper trade sells for noting; Leinster front 5 try mins at 38 and, in England, Gloucester sub try mins at 33.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:27 am

Perfect weather conditions in Buenos Aires for Super Rugby Jaguares v Lions. Both sides only know one way to play so it should be attack/attack.

Had a modest buy of match multis at 742 (SPIN). [That is the SX sell price].

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:35 pm

In tonight's Premiership Cup semi-final the hosts Sale are putting out another strong side against a weak-looking Saracens whose side is full of their Academy players. Conditions should be perfect, and there's a chance that Sale's South African contingent plus the likes of Denny Solomona and Marland Yarde could have a field day.

I wanted a decent bet on over 4.5 Sale tries at 4/5 but have only been allowed the massive sum of £11.40, so have also had a buy of Sale tries at 5.1.

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