Other Rugby Competitions

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:42 pm

There is an NRL game at 9.05 am tomorrow on Sky between Broncos and Dragons. The Aussie pundits are pretty sweet on the Broncos with Dragons apparently rather light in the pack. Of the 8 tries scored by Broncos in the opening two rounds of the NRL winger Corey Oates has scored half of them. In Broncos last 6 competitive games Oates has crossed 12 times {8 .

He is best priced 5/6 (SX) tomorrow to score a try, but I've gone with a buy of his try minutes at 32 with SX (SPIN go 33-37) and split stakes with Oates SMM at 52 (SX).

The only slight niggle is that there has been plenty of rain in Brisbane and cooler temperatures. The forecasts I've seen have varied a little, although the worst of the weather is supposedly heading further south.

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:20 am

An Oates try after 26 minutes. :thumbs

Not enough for your try minutes bet just yet but enough to land the 5/6.

Well done & thanks.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:25 am

Obviously, I've not followed on this one! *,

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:01 am

Made up at 27 but Oates' try a bit too early for my bet. Watched the 2nd half when he hardly had a pass in the Dragons' half. Some incredible carelessness from the Broncos to lose by a single point.

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:31 am

I've bought Sale points @ 26.5 in tonight's game against Connacht.

Sale scored 34 against them in the group stage and have got their first choice team out tonight (more or less) with no pressure in the league. Connacht on the other hand have to focus on the Pro-14 and their team selection reflects this.

The weather is glorious so hopefully Sale can run in a bagful.

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:23 am

Sale scored 20 points in no time at all and were looking at a huge total................. *,

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:50 pm

A very speculative cheap tryscorer bet in the NRL match between Wests Tigers and Cantebury Bulldogs, as previews give positives re Wests forward Josh Aloiai:

Enjoying a strong start to life under Michael Maguire, one of the Tigers best performers over the opening fortnight has been Josh Aloiai. Averaging over 100 metres in 40 minutes of game time coming off the bench, the 23-year-old Samoan international will be eager to maintain his form as part of potent forward rotation alongside the likes of Russell Packer, Ben Matulino and Alex Twal. Coming up against a Bulldogs pack struggling to assert any authority in their first two matches, Aloiai will be an integral contributor in the joint venture's quest to open a season with three straight wins for the first time in history..

Best fixed odds is 8/1 (SX) but as he comes off the bench I've had a buy of Josh Aloiai's SMM try minutes at 4 (same price as try minutes ;-) )

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:05 am

Sell total kicking metres in Toulon v Toulouse at 224 with SPIN and in Bulls v Jaguares at 243 with SX.

On the back of the sell of this market in the recent Six Nations I've started gathering some data from matches played over the last 12 months. Although still a work in progress, I'll have a modest bet on these two games as the prices look high when you consider the average kicking metres in relation to the total points expectations.

Prices up in a couple of prem games as well but no bet for me as the prices don't look wrong compared to the stats. Those sells would be 213 at Bath and 201 at Leicester.

Let's see how it all pans out!

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:53 am

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:05 am
Sell total kicking metres in Toulon v Toulouse at 224 with SPIN and in Bulls v Jaguares at 243 with SX.

On the back of the sell of this market in the recent Six Nations I've started gathering some data from matches played over the last 12 months. Although still a work in progress, I'll have a modest bet on these two games as the prices look high when you consider the average kicking metres in relation to the total points expectations.

Prices up in a couple of prem games as well but no bet for me as the prices don't look wrong compared to the stats. Those sells would be 213 at Bath and 201 at Leicester.

Let's see how it all pans out!
:> :> I'd been considering a buy of Toulon's kicking metres, as they have both Trinh-Duc and Carbonel in the team and are likely to kick everything against the league leaders. On balance I decided against it - so bonne chance a toi!

It's supposed to be fairly wet in Toulon with a chance of some really heavy showers so did look at the try-scoring records of the hookers and no 8's on both sides. Pretty uninspiring stats all round, but I did like the profile of Toulon's no 8 Charles Ollivon and have had a modest bet at 8/1 (Bet 365).

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:30 pm

nick wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:53 am
I'd been considering a buy of Toulon's kicking metres, as they have both Trinh-Duc and Carbonel in the team and are likely to kick everything against the league leaders. On balance I decided against it - so bonne chance a toi!
I'm guessing the buy would have pretty much broke even as my sell of their kicking metres showed a 4 point loss (it was better to sell each team's kicking metres rather than the total).

I'm happy enough with a 74 point profit on that game and a 15 point profit on the other one. The Bath game would have showed a 35 point loss so glad I swerved that one.

Might be some mileage in being a seller in this market.

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:53 pm

Nice profits, Harry :thumbs .

[For some reason Charles Ollivon has been settled as scoring a try {:( :) ].

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:01 am

Glad I swerved the Leicester game as it made up at 340.

Have they corrected the tryscorer bet yet Nick? I'm sure you're anxious to advise them of their error! ;-)

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:55 pm

Going again today on the kicking metres, again to cautious stakes.

Sell in Northampton/Gloucester at 238 with SPIN (by selling each team's total at 128/110 as total is only 232 to sell) {8

Buy in Clermont/Racing 92 at 240 with SPIN (or SX if you buy each team)

Both of these games have a slightly higher total points expectation than my sample for the league in question but they differ in terms of the expected kicking metres per point. The prem game quotes assume 4.54 metres per point versus 4.24 in my sample while the French game assumes 4.68 versus 5.11.

My logic is that the English game is a fairly typical one where the kicking metres quote is a bit higher than it should be whereas there could be a points fest in France where there is also a slightly higher reliance on points from the boot.

As with yesterday, let's see how it goes.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:17 pm

:thumbs 51 points profit on the sell and 9 on the buy. Not bad for a tentative foray into a new market.

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:24 pm

Good stuff harry :clap

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:14 pm

A bit strange for Thursday evening to witness a couple of RL Challenge Cup matches. London Broncos travel to Halifax reportedly with all their Superleague regulars bar the two wingers. Surprisingly by contrast Championship side Halifax are apparently resting players and including several academy lads.

I've had a decent bet on London Broncos -12 with bet 365 (Ladbrokes -14 also very acceptable). In case there is a real blow out have also had small amounts on London Broncos to win by 51- 60 points at 60/1 and by over 60 points at 130/1. These with Ladbrokes with their boosts.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:46 pm

Cheers Nick. PP also go -12 and there's -13 in a couple of places.

Managed to get a modest amount on -12 by placing 4 bets with PP and 365! {8

Had to use a combination of "handicaps", "lines" and 2-way/3-way handicaps! *,

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:37 pm

Good info Nick. I'm on @ -12.5 with Betfair Sportsbook, but as you can imagine with them it is for a paltry amount!

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:58 pm

A couple of Super Rugby games tomorrow morning and I'm continuing with my tentative bets on the kicking metres market.

Crusaders/Highlanders: The market spread for kicking metres is 187-192 and the total points expectation is 55.5. My sample of Super Rugby games has average points at 54.55 and average kicking metres at 223.5. So an average number of points are expected but a much lower total for the kicking metres. In the absence of any obvious reasons to the contrary, this signals a clear buy for me, buy total kicking metres at 192 with SPIN

Rebels/Stormers: Spread is 206-210 with a points expectation of 55.5. I've gone with a buy again, total kicking metres at 210 with SPIN. A much closer call here as we're talking about a price that's around 92% of what I'd expect rather than 82% in the other game but still enough for me to get involved.

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:02 pm

Sorry lads - an embarrassing defeat for London Broncos :> . At least losses mitigated for me by a try for Matt Cook (other thread).

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:52 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:58 pm
A couple of Super Rugby games tomorrow morning and I'm continuing with my tentative bets on the kicking metres market.

Crusaders/Highlanders: The market spread for kicking metres is 187-192 and the total points expectation is 55.5. My sample of Super Rugby games has average points at 54.55 and average kicking metres at 223.5. So an average number of points are expected but a much lower total for the kicking metres. In the absence of any obvious reasons to the contrary, this signals a clear buy for me, buy total kicking metres at 192 with SPIN

Rebels/Stormers: Spread is 206-210 with a points expectation of 55.5. I've gone with a buy again, total kicking metres at 210 with SPIN. A much closer call here as we're talking about a price that's around 92% of what I'd expect rather than 82% in the other game but still enough for me to get involved.
1 point profit on the first game, 86 points on the second. Happy enough overall though was expecting better from the first game given how it stood at half time! {8

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:25 pm

Chiefs/Blues first up tomorrow; no play for me as the spreads for points and kicking metres are very close to the Super Rugby averages.

Not so in the Brumbies/Lions game where I've bought at 200 with SPIN. A fairly average points expectation but a good 10% lower in terms of kicking metres. Still a work in progress but a clear bet based on my experience to date.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:45 am

70 point loss there, my first taste of defeat in this market.

Might as well press on and find out if it's just been beginners' luck so far!

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:05 pm

Bordeaux/Castres: Sell kicking metres at 280 with SPIN (by selling each team, as the total sell price is only 270).

I can only assume that this market is heavily skewed towards buyers given how casual SPIN are about offering a much better sell price to anyone who can be bothered to do a bit of simple maths!

French Rugby tends to have a higher metres per point average than other leagues but, even so, this looks like a sell to me. The game is in for 50 points (about 10% higher than the average in my sample) but the kicking metres sell price is 24% higher than the average.

I have 4 out of 27 games in this league going over 280 (ranging from 302 to 335), 2 out of 11 involving these 2 teams. Overall, around 20% of my sample has gone >280 metres.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:26 pm

No bets on either of the remaining Super Rugby games but my thoughts for posterity.

Sharks/Jags: Price is 226-227 and expected points is 52.5. All too close to the average to get involved but would sell if you put a gnu to my head. My sample of games involving those teams sees 13 going under and 9 going over.

Bulls/Reds: Price is 242-246 and expected points is 59. Again too close to play but this would be a buy if you forced me to pick a side. My sample for these teams see 10 overs and 9 under. Both teams have an average total kicking metres of around 264 in those 19 games.

Hopefully neither of those swerves prove to be too bad a decision.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:53 am

Made up at 208 in the French game for a 72 point profit. :thumbs

The Sharks game made up at 297 and the Bulls game at just 92 so I was wise to swerve as both of my "gut feels" were wrong. Selling both would have been profitable given the low total in the second game.

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