Other Rugby Competitions

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:54 am

Newcastle hotshots look a reasonable buy at 25 (Goneva, Matavesi, Kibirige, Arscott)

Kirbridge at 12/5 or 9/4 decent if you can get on with the bookies in question (VC and 365).

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Matt
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Matt » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:30 am

An absolute horror show for me with Northampton multis MU @ 798. :(

The only saving grace was that I kept the stakes down.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:17 am

I was wincing at every 2nd half score! Looked good for you for much of the 1st half.

Good job for me that Newcastle started well; 3 hotshots tries in the first half, including one for Kibirige.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:42 pm

Edinburgh/Dragons: Buy Edinburgh Hotshots (VD Merwe, Johnstone, Graham, Fife) at 51 with SPIN

Whilst I'm trying to make the philosophical leap to become as comfortable selling as I am buying (channeling my inner Matt if you like) I still can't pass up a buy where the value signals are as strong as this.

I get an indicative price of 59 and a minimum value of 52, so worth risking a small buy and hoping for 3 or more tries. Unusually for a bet like this, there's no big disagreement between the firms, SX only going a point higher.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:02 pm

Also backed Rosser try for Dragons, 5/1 Sportsbook.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:14 pm

Munster/Kings: Buy Kings hotshots at 17 with SPIN (Basson,Rokoua,Penxe,Banda)

Happier in "buy low" territory here with 1 try for a reasonable profit. Price looks a couple of points light. Munster edging into sell territory at 66 with the same firm but not quite enough to convince even as a "paper" trade.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:06 pm

Clermont/Bordeaux: Yato try 21/10 Betway or Sportsbook

Surprised at the price, spreads imply around a 6/5 shot. Worth a bet at 2/1 plus.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:59 pm

Hardy too big at 11/5 for Scarlets v Cheetahs but only allowed a few quid by 365.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:18 pm

Leinster/Cheetahs: Sell Leinster Hotshots (Gibson-Park, McFadden, O'Brien, A Byrne) at 55 with SPIN

SX go 48-52 with O'Loughlin in for Gibson-Park. Given the slight difference between those players in the try minutes market it seems fair to say there would be an arb here if both firms had the same 4 players. Having said that, both prices look odd in terms of how far out they are from the usual relationship between try minutes and hotshots. It's as if one firm has made a mistake and the other has copied it! {8

Put it this way; taking the most pessimistic view for this bet based on the try minutes it's hard to value SPIN's hotshots at any more than 46.

If I'm going to start being willing to sell a bit more often then this is a clear bet to take. Let's see how it pans out.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:25 pm

Looking at the away team, I think a buy of hotshots is in order at 19 with SX (Maxwane, Van Rensburg, Small-Smith, Fouche) and backing Maxwane at 9/4 with Skybet or 21/10 with 365.

Hotshots look a couple of points light and I'd be sub 2/1 for Maxwane along with most of the market.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:18 pm

More joy there than in the English game. 5 point profit on the sell and 6 points on the buy with Maxwane scoring the try. SX's hotshots made up as 75 so got lucky with the combination of players.

Connacht/Ospreys: Bought Connacht Hotshots (Healy, Farrell, S Fitzgerlad, O'Halloran) at 24 with SX (6 points higher elsewhere).

Big disagreement here and I think the truth probably lies in the middle. Ignoring the logic that one should always sell in these circumstances I've gone for a buy at 24.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:46 pm

:thumbs Made up at 50.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:39 pm

Cardiff/Kings: Robinson 3/1 Skybet too big for a try.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:51 pm

Lyon/Castres: Buy Lyon Hotshots (Nakaitaci, Ngatai, Mignot, Arnold) at 37 with SX

SPIN go 37-41 so another spread free trade where I can make a case for the buy. All the players look reasonable enough on stats and price feels a couple of points light. "Just about" rather than "must bet".

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:09 pm

Jaguares/Blues:

Delguy 6/4 anytime try and Moyano 2/1, both 888 and both clear value for me.

Also buy Blues hotshots at 42 with SX (R.Ioane, A, Ioane ,Tele'a, Nanai). Looks light to me.

That's me done for today, the bar's open! :cheers

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:28 am

Not sure the bookies are on the ball re the RL Championship 1. During the close season Keighley Cougars lost nearly all their players because of massive financial problems, and the RL gave them extra time to assemble new players before the season started. Whilst a squad has been assembled they only had chance to play one friendly (losing against Leeds Academy lads) before the league season opener against Whitehaven which they lost 28-16. Today is their opening home league game v Coventry Bears who were massacred here last year.

It seems to be a different story this season for Coventry who opened their campaign against West Wales Raiders with a 28-4 win (Raiders have recruited well this season and should be more respectable this time around) and then had a shock win 32-28 against Newcastle Thunder who have spent considerably on recruitment and are favourites for promotion.

The bookies have Keighley as 12 point favourites on the handicap. With likely bad weather it's usually best to look at + handicaps, and I reckon Coventry Bears receiving 12 points are a sound bet. I've increased stake a little to go with Coventry Bears +12.5 at 4/5 (Bet 365).

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:10 pm

Only 2 points in it at HT, but a complete blow out by Coventry Bears in the 2nd half conceding 30 unanswered points {:( ;: .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:22 pm

2 contrasting results for you today Nick, no prizes for guessing which one I'd followed on! *,

Well done on the other one.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:20 pm

Stormers v Jaguares: Buy Jaguares Hotshots (Moyano, Moroni, Delguy, Tuculet) at 28 with SPIN, de Allende to score a try at 9/2 with Skybet

Jags hotshots are 7 points higher with SX. Experience is beginning to suggest to me that the profitable route is to blindly sell when that sort of difference in price occurs but sometimes you feel strongly that the value lies with the buy. Today is such an occasion, I can easily make a case for the true price being much closer to 35 and the downside is low enough for me to take a shot at this one. The 9/2 on de Allende is a standout but his stats don't really sell it to me. All things considered (especially the limited stake I'm allowed) I'd rather back him and lose than swerve and see him score.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:30 pm

Cardiff/Scarlets: Lee-Lo anytime at 7/2 Hills, Lads or 365

10 to buy or sell on the spreads (a buy being arguably slightly better value than the 7/2), this isn't the strongest of selections but still worth backing for me.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:43 pm

Connacht/Benetton Treviso: Buy Treviso hotshots at 25 with SPIN (M Ioane,Benvenuti,Tavuyara,Sperandino)

SX go 27-30 with Halafihi rather than Benvenuti. Whilst he may add slightly more value I'd say the SX price is broadly correct but SPIN are a few points too low. Definitely worth a buy for me where 1 try sees you break even.

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:45 am

With Bedford Blues v Cornish Pirates available on Sky this afternoon it's a chance to see if there are any ricks. Having anoraked my way through the last 7 or 8 match reports of the home side it's immediately striking that their last 3 home games have seen results 44-45, 23-26 and 53-52. The middle result was against runaway leaders London Irish with the other opponents being Yorkshire Carnegie and Coventry. Cornish Pirates are one of the better defensive sides in the Championship, although given the likely perfect conditions for running rugby, I couldn't resist a small buy of match multis at 826 (SX). It's hard to think this could make up at less than 400 and there's obviously some chance of a stellar make up.

In Bedford's last couple of games players coming off the bench have scored 3 tries - Tadgh McElroy in each of those games and James Lennon who comes on as replacement scrum half. They are both on the bench today together with Jarad Williams who scored in two recent games from no 8 position. Hence have bought Bedford Subs try minutes at 38 (SX).

Prior to the last game wing forward Huw Worthington had scored twice v Yorkshire Carnegie and also away at London Scottish. He also scored in the points fest v Coventry. He is moved to no.8 this afternoon and may get even better opportunities. Buy Huw Worthington try minutes at 15 and SMM at 21 (SX).

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:51 am

:thumbs Cheers Nick, that's got me licking my lips to have a look at that game and try and find some alternative ways of jinxing you!

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:00 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:51 am
:thumbs Cheers Nick, that's got me licking my lips to have a look at that game and try and find some alternative ways of jinxing you!
It's a badge of honour for you to find better prices ;-) ;-) (which you invariably do 0^ :lol ).

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:38 pm

I've channeled your wisdom into the following bets!

>7.5 tries 10/11/ Lads and >54.5 points at 17/20 888 (taking a more cautious approach than your multis buy)
Worthington anytime at 9/4 SX (not much in it but I've opted for anytime over try minutes)
Buy Bedford hotshots at 50 with SPIN (Adamson, Morris, Hutler, Lane) I'd have made them worth slightly more than exactly 2 tries.

Good luck with your bets Nick.

(Slightly odd experience with the 888 bet, they offered me a reduced stake upfront with the rest to be referred, so I chose the option to place the accepted amount and refer the rest. Referred amount accepted promptly but I can only see that in my open bets, not the original larger bet! My balance, however, has reduced by the total requested stake. {8 Will check it again later but not sure I can be arsed querying it unless I have to, i.e. post result if not settled correctly.)

Edit - both showing as open bets now! :thumbs

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:04 am

Well done on Bedford hotshots, Harry :thumbs . You could have expected to end with a better result with 75 clocked up already at HT.

It was a terrible game despite the perfect conditions. The standard of handling and passing was atrocious - have never seen so many bad passes and knock-ons since I played at U13 level. Then the boring, interminable set scrum procedures that followed, plus the fussy referee, totally killed any fluency in the game. I was lucky that match multis reached 521 so not too bad a loss on a very modest high buy price. To cap it all the last Bedford try was awarded as a penalty try when one of my subs, Jarad Williams, was barging through to touch down in the 70th odd minute :( .

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