Other Rugby Competitions

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harry_rag
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Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:30 pm

Couldn't see a more appropriate thread for the Mitre 10 Cup (formerly the ITM Cup) so thought I'd start a thread for any competitions not covered by it's own thread.

Taranaki/Auckland: Buy Perofeta's try minutes at 15 with SPIN. 18 year old fly half with 5 tries in 9 appearances, including a hat trick last week. Appeals at the equivalent of 12/5 anytime when the best available fixed odds price is 6/4.

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:41 pm

It's the Varsity match tomorrow, with Oxford and Cambridge again making the final! ;-)

Had a bit of a read, think Cambridge may be a bit big at 9/4 to end a record breaking streak of 6 straight victories for Oxford. Had small bets on Gillies for first try, anytime and 2 or more at 25/1, 7/1 and 50/1 with BF Sportsbook. He scored a hat trick in Cambridge's last warm up game (against the improbably named Steele-Bodger's XV).

Fully expect Nick to come on with some insight now, so will check back in the morning!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:04 pm

harry_rag wrote:It's the Varsity match tomorrow, with Oxford and Cambridge again making the final! ;-)

Had a bit of a read, think Cambridge may be a bit big at 9/4 to end a record breaking streak of 6 straight victories for Oxford. Had small bets on Gillies for first try, anytime and 2 or more at 25/1, 7/1 and 50/1 with BF Sportsbook. He scored a hat trick in Cambridge's last warm up game (against the improbably named Steele-Bodger's XV).

Fully expect Nick to come on with some insight now, so will check back in the morning!
Out all morning, Harry, so have only recently seen your post. I'm afraid that my days of having any real insight into the Varsity Match disappeared in the 1970's :) .

Cambridge's full back, Charlie Amesbury, is a professional on Bristol's books. He has been given a special dispensation to play for Cambridge over the last 2 months or so. For a bit of interest I've split stakes (small) between a buy of Charlie Amesbury's try minutes at 11 with SX and his super mega minutes at 15.

Good luck with Gillies :thumbs . Micky Steele-Bodger is an old Cambridge Blue who featured in Varsity matches just after the War and then, after leaving University, cobbled together a mixed XV to give Cambridge a warm up match before the big one. He's still going strong, I think, and these warm up matches have never left their fixture list.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:30 pm

:thumbs Never in doubt (apart from for most of the game, until Cambridge added their 2nd try)!

Yes, I read up about the Steele-Bodger game when doing my bit of research.

In the end, Oxford's strategy of favouring warm up games against higher caliber opposition didn't quite pay off for them.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:11 pm

Tomorrow night Northampton play host to Scarlets in the Anglo-Welsh Cup. It's worth looking through the thread on Scarlets fans' forum: http://www.scarletfever.org/forum/scarl ... page1.html

Sounds like there's a good chance that Northampton could be far too strong. As the game is televised on BT Sports there will be a nice array of markets. It's a pity the weather could take a hand, although I've already backed Saints -29 at 10/11 with Coral. The initial spreads supremacy is 31-34.

Will be keeping a close eye on the full spreads markets when they emerge.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:00 pm

Interesting stuff Nick. The RP advise an anytime bet on Dickinson at 2/1 but you can get him at 16/5 with PP or BF Sportsbook.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:10 pm

I fear the weather is going to take a big hand at Northampton this evening, as every forecast suggests blustery winds and rain. No doubt the experienced Saints should be able to control the game and dominate possession without trying to be over-expansive in the likely conditions.

I was tempted to buy the try minutes of Northampton front 5 and subs. However, the quotes are a bit too high for my liking. I've gone for Saints' experienced wing forward, Jamie Gibson, with a buy at 7 (SPIN) and a buy of his SMM at 13 (SX). Also their Springbok scrum half, Nic Groom, could get some joy sniping around the rucks close to Scarlets' line so have bought Nic Groom's try minutes at 18 (SX) and SMM at 29 (SX).

Despite the conditions I couldn't resist a tiny buy of Northampton's multis at 449 with SPIN. Hope Myler can master the wind and slot a few conversions.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:43 pm

Followed on Gibson at 7, Groom anytime at 3.7 made a bit more appeal than try minutes. Also had small bets on Tuala and Mallinder 2 or more at 11/2 and 6/1.

Let's see how it all pans out!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:39 am

Panned out OK, Harry :thumbs .

Pity the weather deteriorated so much in the second half to pin Saint's multis to 624. Gibson was about to touch down a kick ahead in the second half when a desperate Scarlets' boot just denied him his 2nd try. Good call on Mallinder :thumbs .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:16 am

Well done Nick, I'd have needed another try for Mallinder to have got a return (unless you know something I don't). I followed you on the handicap and Gibson so did ok. I also narrowly swerved a buy of Scarlets multis when it dipped to 22 before settling back up at 30 before kick off. (That said, there would have been a decent profit to have been taken at half time.)

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:49 pm

Sorry Harry, I misread your post and hadn't realised you needed a brace from Mallinder, which was hardly helped by him being rested after 51 mins.

Although both are dead rubbers, I've had a buy of Gloucester multis at 167 for their home tie with Dragons. Have also had a buy of Newcastle tries at 3.1 for their home tie with Bath. Newcastle have a couple of attacking "Pacific Islanders" returning.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:10 pm

There's a standing dish Rugby League showpiece game taking place in Newcastle, Australia which has been priced up by our spread firms. A local preview here: http://www.rippa.com/category/rugby-lea ... 0208-0002/

The Indigenous Allstars are 7-10 supremacy. If the local info is correct (article only written yesterday), then there could be some decent upside in a buy Indigenous All Stars multis at 150 (SX). [Weather set to be perfect].

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:34 pm

Interesting stuff Nick, had a bit of a look round myself. Seen the comment, "Are they having a laugh with that world all star team? Serious lack of big names in it."

I'll follow in your wake with a buy of their try rush at 45. 5 will edge you in front and, compared to a buy of total tries at 4.3, there's greater reward for 5 or more but greater risk if it doesn't cover the spread.

Looking at the history of the fixture, it doesn't scream "high scoring" but worth taking a chance on this running. I'm inclined to swerve the risk of the points being evenly split either side of the break but I'll wish you well with the multis Nick.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:16 am

harry_rag wrote:..............................

I'll follow in your wake with a buy of their try rush at 45. 5 will edge you in front and, compared to a buy of total tries at 4.3, there's greater reward for 5 or more but greater risk if it doesn't cover the spread.

Looking at the history of the fixture, it doesn't scream "high scoring" but worth taking a chance on this running. I'm inclined to swerve the risk of the points being evenly split either side of the break but I'll wish you well with the multis Nick.
An easy 34-8 win for Indigenous All Stars (catchy name :) ). They went off like a rocket with 3 tries in the opening 14 mins - thought you were in for a bonanza, Harry. Still 6 tries not too shabby for you, and their multis made up at 288 for 138 points profit :) . Had a nice fixed odds handicap bet too.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:45 am

:cheers Cheers Nick, cant beat a winner before lunchtime!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:20 pm

There's a traditional NRL pre-season Charity Shield in Sydney on Sunday which always features Rabbitohs and Illawarra Dragons. Sydney has been hit by severe thunderstorms which are set to continue throughout the weekend, including around the 4pm (Aussie time) kick-off on Sunday afternoon.

The pitch is bound to be pretty wet even if the storms hold off during the actual game. If there is heavy rain and wind during the match, then this could be a real old-fashioned slog. The match multis line with SX is 307-402. Not a particularly exciting spread, except that a sell at 307 would have yielded profit in 4 of the last 5 Charity Shields anyway. Presumably the local rivalry and bragging rights ensure that the game is deadly serious and very well contested.

On balance I think there's a decent chance that a sell of match multis at 307 is worth a crack.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:57 pm

:thumbs Cheers Nick, will have a look at that game later.

Just looking at tonight's Warrington/Brisbane Broncos match. Not much confidence in either of Warrington or Wigan in what I've read so far. Kahu at 13/8 looks an ok bet for an interest (odds on in a few places) but Hunt at 10/3 is a proper "value" bet for me, even allowing for my mixed fortunes so far backing tryscorers in this code. 3/1 in a couple of places and shorter everywhere else, the spreads on offer suggest he'd be a 13/5 shot at the most. He has 38 tries in 166 appearances for the Broncos, scoring 7 in 26 and 12 in 26 over the last couple of seasons.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:14 pm

In the RL Challenge Cup tomorrow there's a chance of a bit of "double bubble" with a decent handicap spread available for the Hemel v London Skolars match. Whilst Skolars are clear favourites the match could be closer than the prices suggest.

Hemel v London Skolars -12 (Ladbrokes) 10/11
Hemel +18 (general) v London Skolars 10/11

55 points on each bet risks a loss of only 5 points for a potential 100 points gain.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:52 pm

Great spot nick :thumbs

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:38 am

Toulouse hammered Dewsbury in the South of France last week but had previously suffered an unexpected defeat at Sheffield. They are making another trip today to the cold, damp delights of Bradford. Toulouse are without the services of their sensational winger, Kuni Minga, and their place kicker, Kheirallah, both of whom are big misses. Bradford see the return of their several Super League dual registration players. The bookies can't split the teams today,but I favour Bradford at 10/11 generally available.

Having watched much of the Toulouse/Dewsbury game on the home side's recording of the game, the visitors actually took an early lead and had some very decent field positions. Reportedly they had "enjoyed" a few days in the South of France, which seemed to take its toll in the second half when they were pathetic. They have hardly scored a point in their opening three games and today receive London Broncos. Broncos have travelled 'oop north twice so far in the League with very narrow away wins at Swinton (23-26) and Oldham (18-20). Reportedly it has been pretty desperate stuff, and there could be more of the same today. Dewsbury will surely put on a better show in front of their own fans and are likely to play a conservative, old-fashioned plod down the middle game on a likely heavy pitch in poor conditions. I favour Dewsbury (+12) on the handicap generally available at 10/11.

Have also had a double that pays 2.64/1 with sky, Fred and Hills.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:00 pm

Hemel 12 - 22 London Skolars
Bradford 29 - 22 Toulouse :)
Dewsbury 6 - 20 London Broncos

Close, but a couple of points either way in the losing bets makes for a modest loss overall.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:22 pm

Keighley/Toronto: Buy Keighley multi points at 30 with SPIN

Toronto more than 30 point favourites for this game and, whilst I don't know a huge amount about rugby at this level (I'm not Nick, after all), I think that price is low enough to risk purely on a "sell hype" basis. 30-39 elsewhere so a spread free trade. I certainly wouldn't be a willing seller at 30.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:39 pm

Bulldogs/Broncos: Josh Morris to score a try at 3/1, 2 or more at 25/1 and a hat trick at 500/1, Roberts to score a try at 3.5 (12/5 acceptable) and 2 or more at 20/1 and Hunt to score a try at 7/2

As part of my ongoing attempt to bet on sports, teams or players I know less and less about I've had a look at tomorrow's NRL game and arrived at the conclusion that these 3 players might be ok at the prices. The NRL site is decent for looking at team and player stats, certainly better than most sites I'm aware of for Union or domestic League.

We'll see what happens. The 500/1 is obviously hugely speculative but would be 300/1 at most for me. Value I suppose but you'd probably have to back a lot of such bets to see any reward!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:19 am

Good luck, Harry :thumbs , although the weather is dreadful in Canterbury, NSW.

I've had my lowest ever sell price of match multis at only 262 with SX {8 . As long as there is no score in one half, you can have as many tries scored as you like in the other :) .

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:29 am

*, Must pay more heed to the weather!

Good luck with your bet Nick, may all the points be from tries by my players!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:07 am

Thanks, Harry. I think the weather was the winner since the multis made up at only 70 for 192 points profit :) .

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