Other Rugby Competitions

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harry_rag
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Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:17 pm

Otago v Northland: Sell Otago hotshots at 48 with SPIN (Michael Collins, Vilimoni Koroi, Josh Timu, Jona Nareki)

This was shaping up to be the classic example of a value bet in this market (SX go 44-48 with Tomkinson in for Timu despite Tomkinson appearing to add twice as much value). The only area in which it falls down is the perceived edge as I get a true value of 44.8 which "only" offers an edge of 6.7%. Up to now I've only tended to post bets with a double digit edge but given the returns so far and my overall experience of this market I'm happy to post this.

The edge based on the try minute prices of the players is only one indicator of value and this remains a solid selection even if it's not right up there in "no-brainer" territory.

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harry_rag
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Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:08 pm

No joy there but no disaster, made up at 50 for a loss of 2 x stake.

2 standouts in tonight's RU.

Harlequins v Exeter: Sell Exeter hotshots at 38 with SPIN (Facundo Cordero, Tom O'Flaherty, Olly Woodburn, Sam Simmonds)

Sale v Northampton: Sell Sale hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Luke James, Denny Solomona, Rohan van Rensburg, Simon Hammersley)

Both similar in that slightly higher price elsewhere and going on for a 14% edge on my numbers. (One player different in the second quartet.)

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:08 pm

Leinster v Cardiff: Sell Leinster hotshots at 70 (Jimmy O'Brien, Cian Kelleher, Dave Kearney, Luke McGrath) and their sub try mins at 81, both with SPIN.

Same hotshots are 7 points lower elsewhere which is still arguably too high. I get a true value of 56.1 for a 19.9% edge and a top end value of 61.6 which is still decent. Sub try mins are the same price elsewhere but this is a sell on what I've just decided to call the immutable law of big numbers!

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harry_rag
Posts: 14264
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:16 pm

Ulster v Scarlets: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1.6 points at 57 with SPIN (Matt Faddes, Rob Lyttle, John Cooney, Marcell Coetzee)

Value on all the usual metrics.

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