Other Rugby Competitions

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nick
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:07 am

nick wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
..............................

There's plenty of rain forecast in Newcastle (Aussieland) tomorrow when Newcastle Knights receive Canterbury Bulldogs in the NRL. Spreadex seem alive to the situation as their multi points and cross points markets have been dropping. I was preferably looking to sell cross points, since the Bulldogs are rock bottom and the Aussie pundits give them little chance. However, I've been a bit greedy and stuck with SPIN's higher multi points sell quote at 379.

Knights v Bulldogs SELL match multi points at 379 (SPIN).
Multis make up at 144 for 235 points profit :) .

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:13 am

:thumbs Well done Nick. Even as a confirmed seller now I still have a blind spot about selling multis markets. Something to work on I think.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:08 am

Weather was really bad, Harry - that's the key for me usually.

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/andrew-mcc ... 4b4ad92f4c

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:29 pm

Lovely stuff nick :clap

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by nick » Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm

The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:38 pm

nick wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:21 pm
The weather is supposed to be pretty decent for tomorrow's Pro 14 clash in Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. I hope Edinburgh's Fijian no 8, Bill Mata, is raring to go. He has scored plenty of tries in his Rugby League and 7's days and could get a few opportunities tomorrow. Best fixed odds is 17/4 (SX) to score a try but I've bought Bill Mata's Super Mega minutes at 9 (SX), as that is the same price as SPIN's ordinary try mins market.
Be rude not to follow up with a buy at 7 with SPIN tonight, just in case it's one of those "delayed reaction" winners! :)

Certainly knocks the fixed odds prices (13/5 best) into a cocked hat.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:53 pm

There are "routine" sells and there are "interesting" sells and I try and only post the latter. There's one tonight in the Sale v Quins cup game, with hotshots at 31-35 SX but 44-48 with SPIN. Unsurprisingly, there's a difference between the 4 players each firm has selected, with SX choosing Hammersley and SPIN opting for van Rensburg. The other 3 players with each firm are Solomana, James and Yarde.

Whilst Hammersley is worth less based on the respective try minutes quotes, there's not a huge amount in it. He's pitched at 6-8 while van Rensburg is 10-12 (based on best prices). If I use the try mins prices to estimate fair hotshots prices I get 32.6 for SX and 34.9 for SPIN.

All in all, Sale hotshots look a value sell at 44 with SPIN

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:55 am

:thumbs No tries for any of the players so a make up of zero for the maximum profit of 44 x stake.

In the interest of transparency I should say that my only other bet on the game was a "routine" sell of Sale substitute try minutes at 39 which made up at 78 for a 39 point loss, meaning I only made a small net profit on the game. That's the nature of these bets though, it's all about sticking to the script and turning a long term profit.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm

Here's another "interesting" sell ( the routine sells are doing ok having just put a toe over the 6000 point profit line).

Bulls v Griquas: Sell Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN (Gio Aplon,Travis Ismaiel,Cornal Hendricks,David Kriel). SX go 63-68 with Gans in place of Hendricks. Gans' try minutes are on offer at 28-30 while Hendricks are only 19-20. So a 10 point lower hotshots price when the player who differs has a 10 points lower try minutes price! {8

Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:26 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:59 pm
Using the basic equation to convert try minutes prices to a hotshots value I make the SX quartet worth 66, bang in the middle of their spread. The SPIN foursome, however, come out at just 60.5.

So, to reiterate, selling the Bulls hotshots at 73 with SPIN appears to be a clear cut value trade.
Again, no tries for any of the 4 players so the maximum profit of 73 x stake. Having been transparent with my other losing bet on the previous selection, it only seems fair to mention that the other "routine" bet on this game was a sell of the Bulls sub try minutes at 88 which also made up at zero for a profit of 88 x stake! :>

One for today in a similar vein thought closer to routine than the previous selection (this has a perceived edge of 11% compared to 17% and 20% for the last 2).

Glasgow v Scarlets: Sell Glasgow hotshots at 31 with SPIN (Tommy Seymour, Nick Grigg, Ratu Tagive, Ali Price)

SX go 29-33 with Jones instead of Price. Jones can be bought or sold at 14 while Price is on offer at 8-10. "True" prices are 30.5 SX (bang in the middle of the spread) but 27.6 for SPIN (over 3 points below the sell price). Always nice to be selling at prices closer to yesterday's than today's but I've placed enough of these bets to be happy with this one, win or lose. To better serve the interests of transparency, I'll mention my routine bets upfront, I've sold both teams' sub try minutes, at 50 and 40 respectively.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:09 pm

Clean sweep there though the away subs were only 30, not 40 as I said. A total of 111 points profit on the game. :thumbs

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm

Just spotted there’s an early game tomorrow and it throws up another one of those “interesting” bets.

Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:50 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 pm
Hawkes Bay v Northland: sell Hawkes Bay hotshots at 44 with SPIN (Baker, Visinia, Ili and Lowe)

SX go 41-45 with Fakatawa instead of Ili despite the former being worth more in the try mins market. My value for the SX quartet is 36.6 (unusually outside their spread, offering a reasonable enough 12% edge) but only 32.3 for the SPIN hotshots, offering closer to a 27% edge.

Routine bet on this game is a sell of Hawkes Bay sub try mins at 42.
36 points profit on the hotshots (8 points for a non-runner but no tries for the remaining 3 players) but a 24 point loss on the sub try minutes so a 12 point net profit on the game. One for tonight in the Cheetahs v Bulls game, on the basis that a perceived edge of 17.8% qualifies as "interesting".

Sell Bulls hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Gio Aplon, David Kriel, Cornal Hendricks, Jade Stighling). SX have the same quartet at 30-34 and i get a notional value of just under 29. While a sell at 30 would probably be value but hardly an exciting one, selling at 4 points higher seems like a solid enough bet.

Same game I'm also selling Cheetahs hotshots at 47 and home and away sub try minutes at 35 and 40.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:12 pm

Bay of Plenty v North Harbour: Sell Bay of Plenty hotshots at 42 with SPIN (Kaleb Trask, Emoni Narawa, Mathew Skipwith-Garland, Joe Webber)

SX are 3 points lower with Tiatia instead of Garland and Tiatia is worth more than double. True price more like 35, edge of almost 17%, yada yada! :)

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:59 pm

2 tries for the hotshots for a make up of 50 and a loss of 8 x stake.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:49 pm

Munster v Ospreys: Sell Munster hotshots at 40 with SPIN (Darren Sweetnam, Rory Scannell, Damian de Allende, Matt Gallagher)

SX are 3 points lower but have the far more valuable Coombes instead of Scannell. (The former's try minutes being more or less double the latter's.)

My take on the true value is just 30.5 for a 23% edge! Even at the top end value it's only 5 points more and still a double digit edge.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:24 pm

Back to winning ways, made up at zero for a gain of 40 x stake.

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Col
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by Col » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:46 pm

Nice one :thumbs

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harry_rag
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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:04 pm

Cheers Col, 3 games tonight, on this one in the earliest.

Zebre v Ulster: Sell Ulster hotshots at 41 with SPIN (Michael Lowry, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Alby Mathewson)

SX are 6 points lower with Marshall rather than Mathewson but I'd say those two players are broadly similar in terms of what they're worth.

I get a true value of 34.5 which offers almost a 16% edge and a "top book" value of 40.1 which is still just under the sell price.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:24 pm

Nothing in the middle game but sold Leinster hotshots at 58 and sub try minutes at 64 v Edinburgh, both with SPIN. Hotshots are (Jimmy O'Brien, Cian Kelleher, Dave Kearney, James Tracy).

SX 6 points lower with Turner for Tracy. Always hard to compare when one of the players (Tracy) is lumped in with the front 5 but, even if you ascribe the whole of the F5 try mins to him it's hard to get a value as high as 58.

Leinster front 5 try minutes have some appeal as a buy at 21 with SX (24 with SPIN) but, for better or worse, I'll stick to the sells.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:06 pm

Hotshots made up at 25 in the first game for a 16 point profit but 100 in the other for a 42 point loss. No sub try though so that returned a 64 point profit which (I think) adds up to a net 38 point profit.

Oh, and a buy of the front 5 try minutes would have shown a profit too!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:17 pm

Otago v Northland: Sell Otago hotshots at 48 with SPIN (Michael Collins, Vilimoni Koroi, Josh Timu, Jona Nareki)

This was shaping up to be the classic example of a value bet in this market (SX go 44-48 with Tomkinson in for Timu despite Tomkinson appearing to add twice as much value). The only area in which it falls down is the perceived edge as I get a true value of 44.8 which "only" offers an edge of 6.7%. Up to now I've only tended to post bets with a double digit edge but given the returns so far and my overall experience of this market I'm happy to post this.

The edge based on the try minute prices of the players is only one indicator of value and this remains a solid selection even if it's not right up there in "no-brainer" territory.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:08 pm

No joy there but no disaster, made up at 50 for a loss of 2 x stake.

2 standouts in tonight's RU.

Harlequins v Exeter: Sell Exeter hotshots at 38 with SPIN (Facundo Cordero, Tom O'Flaherty, Olly Woodburn, Sam Simmonds)

Sale v Northampton: Sell Sale hotshots at 35 with SPIN (Luke James, Denny Solomona, Rohan van Rensburg, Simon Hammersley)

Both similar in that slightly higher price elsewhere and going on for a 14% edge on my numbers. (One player different in the second quartet.)

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:08 pm

Leinster v Cardiff: Sell Leinster hotshots at 70 (Jimmy O'Brien, Cian Kelleher, Dave Kearney, Luke McGrath) and their sub try mins at 81, both with SPIN.

Same hotshots are 7 points lower elsewhere which is still arguably too high. I get a true value of 56.1 for a 19.9% edge and a top end value of 61.6 which is still decent. Sub try mins are the same price elsewhere but this is a sell on what I've just decided to call the immutable law of big numbers!

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:16 pm

Ulster v Scarlets: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1.6 points at 57 with SPIN (Matt Faddes, Rob Lyttle, John Cooney, Marcell Coetzee)

Value on all the usual metrics.

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Re: Other Rugby Competitions

Post by harry_rag » Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:05 pm

111 points loss from the last few bets, courtesy of Leinster subs running riot (-136 points). All part and parcel, can't play these bets without stepping into a puddle every now and again.

One for tomorrow's early game.

Hawke's Bay v Northland: Sell Hawke's Bay hotshots at 39 with SPIN (Kurt Baker, Lolagi Visinia, Stacey Ili, Jonah Lowe)

SPIN yet to go up with their player try minute prices so I can't assess the value here as accurately as I'd like. (If someone with fat fingers has put the prices in for SX I may be making my decision based on a rick.)

SX have Fornai and Dixon in their hotshots rather than Baker and Ili. They value Fornai on his own at not much less than Baker and Ili. They value Dixon at more than both put together. (No try minutes price as he's in the front 5 but their 7/5 anytime stands out as he's odds on across the board and the most likely tryscorer in the game according to the fixed odds market.) In SX's opinion the SPIN hotshots are worth 29 at most so a sell at 39 doesn't look like the worst bet one could place.

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