Tomorrow's Force v Brumbies game has thrown me a bit of a puzzle. First thing to catch my eye was that SX quote Brumbies hotshots at 38-42 while SPIN go 57-61. Either that was going to be a chasm of an arb or there was a difference in the players, which turned out to be the case.
Both include the trio of Banks. Kata and Wright but SX add Kuridrani (try mins as high as 13 to buy) while SPIN favour Faingaa (one of the front 5 who are as high as 27 to buy). Faingaa has 20 tries in 33 career games and, looking at the other 4, pretty much represents the whole of that try minutes price. If you use the "standard formula" to convert try minutes prices to hotshots then the SX price looks about right but, even allowing for the impressive Faingaa being worth the whole 27, the SPIN sell price looks at least 7 points too high. I've ended up having 2 slightly contradictory bets.
Buy Brumbies front 5 try minutes at 24 with SX - equivalent to getting an odds against price about Faingaa (odds on with most firms) and the other 4 thrown in for free
Sell Brumbies hotshots at 57 with SPIN - I don't have a choice as such as this is an "automated trade" for me when a price looks that far out.
Let the cards fall how they may!