Champions Cup

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:20 pm

No time for a write up today:

Buy Saints sup @ 4
Sell Lyon multis @ 76
Sell Quins sup @ 3

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:21 pm

Sell Racing multis @ 73

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:27 am

Lyon MU at 0 for a big win, but small losses on the others bring the profit down. Still up on the day though so that'a ok. Back with more later.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:02 am

SX have not priced up yet so I've had to go with SPIN's prices as i'm off out.

La Rochelle's defeat at home last week means they will give up from now on. Sold their multis @ 65.

Montpellier also lost, but that was away at Connaght so they are very much still in it. Last year they gave up just 36 points in three group games so I can't see Gloucs scoring a bagful, especially given the rather odd team they've selected. I've sold Gloucs multis also @ 65.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:09 am

Gloucs bet was a shocker, not helped by the Montpellier red card. MU at a whopping 170. :(

Small win on the La Rochelle bet but comfortably a losing day overall.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:40 am

The Champions Cup returns and already there are teams who will be less motivated than others.

Bath are one such team having lost 2/2 and with away trips to Ulster and Clermont to go. Clermont will be fully up for this. They've got the away trip to Ulster out of the way and will be looking to win the rest of their games.

I've sold Bath multis @ 64 and backed Clermont -4.5 @ 2.04.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:55 am

I've also taken the early prices on Glasgow, backing them @ 9/5 and also with a +5 start @ 10/11 (both Will Hill).

Having lost 2/2 and with an away trip to Exeter (& Glasgow themselves) to come we could see a second string La Rochelle team tomorrow.

Glasgow still have a tough route to the 1/4 finals but a win here will make the path seem much easier. They will certainly be giving it a good go.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:14 pm

Sold Quins multis @ 50. Hard to see them getting anything out of Ulster.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:25 pm

And Sarries @ 56. Very weak team they have sent to Munster.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:13 pm

Good luck Matt. I'm on the following sells.

Lyon hotshots at 53 and Treviso hotshots at 25, Glasgow hotshots at 31 and Ulster hotshots at 34. All with SPIN.

9 paper trade only "sandpit" bets to track as well, the most noteworthy being Leicester hotshots at a whopping 105!

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:38 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:13 pm
Good luck Matt. I'm on the following sells.

Lyon hotshots at 53 and Treviso hotshots at 25, Glasgow hotshots at 31 and Ulster hotshots at 34. All with SPIN.

9 paper trade only "sandpit" bets to track as well, the most noteworthy being Leicester hotshots at a whopping 105!
Actual bets made up at 50, 0, 25 and 0 for a 68 point profit. Leicester hotshots made up at 100 so would have shown a small profit. Still some paper trades to be settled but a sub try minutes make up of 203 will probably ensure they're in the red! :)

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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:59 am

Just one sell in today's 3 games, Gloucester hotshots at 39 with SPIN (Marshall, Rees-Zammit, Atkinson and Thorley). SX go 31-35 with Harris rather than Atkinson but there's no real difference between how those players are valued in the try minutes or anytime markets.

Over in France, I've sold Oyonnax hotshots at 47 with SPIN (Giresse, Millet, Codjo and Michel). SX are lower despite having the more highly valued Hansell-Pune rather than Millet.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:51 pm

harry_rag wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:13 pm
9 paper trade only "sandpit" bets to track as well, the most noteworthy being Leicester hotshots at a whopping 105!
In the end there were 11 paper trade only bets, 8 of which won but showed a 42 point loss. That was courtesy of Leinster sub try minutes make up of 203 for what would have meant a 166 point loss if playing with real money. My worst real money loss to date is 120 points.

I think that just illustrates the volatility of sub try minutes; it will make up at zero more often than not but 3 tries for subs will probably go over the 200 mark. I'll keep those bets in the "sandpit" for a while longer, I think.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:55 pm

Make-ups of 75 and 0 so a modest 11 point profit overall, happy enough with that. No impact in terms of the player differences between the firms so same make-up whichever firm you went with.

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Col
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Col » Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:13 pm

Yep, profit is always welcome. :)

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:01 am

The bets on Glasgow & Sarries were winners not the Quins trade I'm afraid. Small profit overall but nothing exciting.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:53 am

Matt wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:14 pm
Sold Quins multis @ 50. Hard to see them getting anything out of Ulster.
I got that hopelessly wrong last week but I'm hoping to get some of the lossed back by selling Quins multis again, this time @ 97.

Ulster have won 3/3 and won't want to slip up here with a tricky away game at Clermont to come. Quins have thrown the towel in and have rested the likes of Robshaw, Marler, Smith & Care.

I've also backed Ulster to win @ 1.59.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:36 pm

Good luck Matt, a sell of Racing 92 hotshots my only bet so far, at 79 with SPIN (Simon Zebo, Louis Dupichot, Virimi Vakatawa, Juan Imhoff).

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:23 pm

Matt wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:53 am
Matt wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:14 pm
Sold Quins multis @ 50. Hard to see them getting anything out of Ulster.
I got that hopelessly wrong last week but I'm hoping to get some of the lossed back by selling Quins multis again, this time @ 97.

Ulster have won 3/3 and won't want to slip up here with a tricky away game at Clermont to come. Quins have thrown the towel in and have rested the likes of Robshaw, Marler, Smith & Care.

I've also backed Ulster to win @ 1.59.
Quins MU at just 21 in that game for a very healthy profit and the Ulster fixed odds bet also won.

No bets on the Friday night games as both are dead rubbers.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:42 am

The team news has prompted a couple of bets on the dead rubbers tonight.

Sale have made 15 changes and have a very youthful looking team and even younger bench. La Rochelle have made fewer changes and at home they should have too much power for Sale. I've sold Sale multis @ 74.

In the other game Quins have put out a very strong looking pack compared to Bath and I fancy them to win. I've backed Quins straight up @ 1.92.

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