Rugby World Cup 2019

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:29 pm

I'd have been better just sticking to the hotshot sells today as all the other bets lost! :>

Both hotshots made up at 75 for a net 39 point profit. 1st bet tomorrow is in a similar vein but is very much a standout.

SX quote Ireland's hotshots at 88-94 while SPIN go 103-110. The obvious conclusion here is that there must be a difference in the players they have included in the hotshots and that is the case BUT; the only difference is SPIN have Bundee Aki where SX go for Rob Kearney. (Both firms include Conway, RIngrose and Earls.)

In the try minutes market, Kearney is valued at 21-22 and Aki at 21 so very little difference between them (SPIN go 21-24 for both). In the anytime try market Kearney is a best price 6/4 whereas Aki is 13/10. Using try minutes prices for all of the players I get a notional hotshots value of 88, very much in the area of SX's price.

Bottom line, I'd have probably been selling these hotshots at 94 and thinking it was an ok bet. The chance to sell at 103 (5 tries needed for a loss) seems like a maximum confidence bet in terms of value.

Sell Ireland hotshots at 103 with SPIN (Conway, Ringrose, Aki and Earls).

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:48 am

Looks good Harry, i might join you.

I've just closed Fiji multis out @ 121 for a 96 point profit. The game is not quite panning out as expected. I'm not a fan of closing out but with the supremacy bet still running I'll take some profit now.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 09, 2019 3:54 am

RWC going ok for me so far with an 8% ROI.

Today I've sold all three underdog multis @ 68, 21 & 57 respectively.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 09, 2019 5:22 am

Closed out USA @ 28 for a 40 point profit. They look quite good in attack so I'll take my profit & run.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:10 am

Russia provide a lovely nilling in the second game. :)

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:42 pm

13 point loss on Fiji in the last game. Decent enough day though.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:51 pm

Well done Matt. Ok day for me, loss on sell of Scotland hotshots covered by sell of Delguy try mins. Interest bet on >1.5 cards and yellow in both halves in the Wales game did ok.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:08 am

Sold Georgia multis @ 29. Their best bet is to slow the game down & frustrate the Aussies, but in turn this won't allow for many opportunities for Georgia to score.

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:51 pm

Well done Matt.

For tomorrow I’m on Stockdale to score a try in both halves at 9/1 with Hills and in the 1st 10 minutes at 10/1 with PP. Also done >1.5 cards at 9/4 Hills and a yellow card for both teams at 5/1 with Betway.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:40 am

Today I've got multis sells of Uruguat @ 26 and Scotland @ 138.

I won't see either game as I've got an U13's game to watch in the rain!

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harry_rag
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by harry_rag » Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:46 pm

For a cross game interest I've done doubles and trebles on last tryscorer to be "any other player" at 2.4 or 2.35 with 888. Basically pays if last try is a penalty try, scored by a sub or if there's no try scored.

By my reckoning this has happened in slightly more than half of the games involving the 8 quarter finalists so far so seems a decent price. For what it's worth the stats suggest any forward may be slightly overpriced at around the 5/1 mark and that any back is rank bad value at around evens.

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Matt
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019

Post by Matt » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:03 am

Wales -6.5 on the h'cap for me today. As well as cheering on Japan!

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