Champions Cup

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:06 pm

I might as well get in on the act (it's the rugby board's Christmas do)! :lol

I've added a buy of Gloucester front 5 try minutes into the mix at a reasonable looking 15 with SPIN.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:50 pm

Multi sells:

Lyon 37
Castres 73
Cardiff 60

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:13 am

Matt wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:50 pm
Multi sells:

Lyon 37
Castres 73
Cardiff 60
MU @ 21, 30 & 0 respectively for a decent return.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:10 pm

I've sold Gloucs multis @ 97 tonight.

They've been misfiring recently but do have Cipriani back tonight. However, Munster are experts in shutting up shop, and with so much on the line in this game I can't see either team risking too much early doors.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:00 am

MU @ 36 for a nice little win.

Today:

I've sold Newcastle multis @ 83. Going to Montpellier is never easy but with the form Newcastle are in there is only going to be one result here.

Similarly a sell of Toulouse multis @ 93. Leinster simply don't give up many points, and with Sexton, Henshaw & Kearney all missing I think they will play a very cautious game. A low scoring win will suit Leinster.

I'm ignoring the Bath/Wasps dead rubber.

In the Ulster game I've sold points @ 45. Given the situation in the group, it's hard to see Racing allowing an open, free-flowing game.

Scarlets/Leics is another dead rubber.

In the final game I've bought Edinburgh points @ 21. Always tricky going to France but Toulon are just about out & have conceded loads this year. Edinburgh can set themselves up for a grandstand finish if they get a good win here.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:41 am

:thumbs Well done last night and good luck with today’s bets. Will have a look at the games if I get chance.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:34 pm

Matt wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:00 am
In the final game I've bought Edinburgh points @ 21. Always tricky going to France but Toulon are just about out & have conceded loads this year. Edinburgh can set themselves up for a grandstand finish if they get a good win here.
I've bought their hotshots at 30 with SX (Kinghorn, Dean, Graham and van der Merwe). Took Lads' 15/8 for van der Merwe anytime and couldn't resist the 9/1 boost for him and Graham both to score anytime.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:16 am

Well done on the hotshots Harry!

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:18 am

I've sold Newcastle multis @ 83. MU @ 15. :)

Similarly a sell of Toulouse multis @ 93. MU @ 42. :)

In the Ulster game I've sold points @ 45. MU @ 48. :( (but well done to Ulster).

In the final game I've bought Edinburgh points @ 21. MU @ 28. :)

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:41 am

Today I've sold Castres multis @ 83. Put simply they don't travel well.

I've also sold Lyon multis at home to Sarries @ 109. They've scored just 63 points in four games so far, are now out of the group and have to face the Sarries defence.

No prices in the Glasgow game yet but I doubt there will be much obvious value in what will be an easy home win.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:21 am

Well done Matt. Ok result for me, would have been nice if van der Merwe was among the scorers.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:52 pm

Today I've sold Castres multis @ 83. MU @ 35. :)

I've also sold Lyon multis at home to Sarries @ 109. MU @ 21. :)

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:22 pm

:thumbs Great stuff Matt. Just had a couple of last minute bets myself, landed Slade anytime but was a bit unlucky with Nowell anytime/Exeter to win and score >34.5 points!

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:25 am

Three multi sells today:

Exeter @ 97
Scarlets @ 90
Gloucs @ 92

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:42 pm

Mercer anytime try 11/2 Lads looks very generous to me. Also small bets on 1st and last at 33/1.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:53 pm

In the other game, bought Leinster hotshots at 50 with SX (D. Kearney, Ringrose, A. Byrne, Larmour)

54-58 with SPIN, maybe the "truth" is somewhere in the middle and I'm happy enough to buy at exactly 2 tries.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:23 am

Great shout on Mercer there Harry.

Scarlets were a bit of a shocker for me!

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:35 am

Cheers Matt, unlucky with Scarlets.

No joy with the hotshots, I’m beginning to wonder if “see an arb, sell an arb” would be a profitable strategy!

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:46 pm

I see arbs most weeks when looking at multi-points prices for each team. I'm not really interested but it is odd that they can exist so often.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:27 am

I'm siding firmly with the home sides today, and have sold the following multis:

Munster @ 127
Glasgow @ 78
Ulster @ 72

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 11, 2019 10:42 am

Final today and a close, low scoring affair is anticipated. 3 tryscorers appeal for me at the prices.

Lowe at 7/2 BF Sport or 16/5 PP
L Williams at the same prices/firms
Maitland at 4/1 BF Sport (I got 5.12 on the exchange)

There are 3 and 4 point arbs on the latter pair's try minutes with the fixed odds price being better value than the lowest sell price.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 11, 2019 1:16 pm

Seen some stats on card shown by the ref to these teams which has inclined me towards 10/11 for a yellow card with Fred (for those who aren’t persona non grata with him).

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Sat May 11, 2019 5:01 pm

Yellow card and a Maitland try in at half time. :thumbs

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Col
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Col » Sat May 11, 2019 7:00 pm

Nice one :thumbs

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:06 pm

European rugby is back from tomorrow!

Straightforward start for me is Toulouse -1 @ 10/11 to beat Gloucs.

I've got a lot of time for Gloucs and I think they will have a strong season domestically, but not so in Europe. The old adage of french teams not travelling well doesn't apply to Toulouse with their cast of international superstars. Last year they won at Wasps and Bath and with Gloucs going down at home so badly to a weak Sarries team last week I fear there is only one result here.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:56 pm

Prices slowly being quoted for tomorrow, and a few bets of interest (and quite a few arbs on the multis for those that like that sort of thing).

First up a sell of Treviso multis @ 42. Leinster gave up just 31 points in total in the group stage last season, and they played Wasps, Toulouse and Bath. To suggest Treviso will get more than the average of those three teams, and get a decent 1H/2H split is silly.

I've sold Exeter supremacy @ 2. Quite simply I can't see them winning away in France.

I've also sold Glasgow multis @ 169. The Glasgow team don't look anything special and Sale will play a very pragmatic game. Also a small bet on Sale to win @ 2/1.

Possibly two more bets to come once all prices are up.

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harry_rag
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by harry_rag » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:18 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:06 pm
European rugby is back from tomorrow!

Straightforward start for me is Toulouse -1 @ 10/11 to beat Gloucs.

I've got a lot of time for Gloucs and I think they will have a strong season domestically, but not so in Europe. The old adage of french teams not travelling well doesn't apply to Toulouse with their cast of international superstars. Last year they won at Wasps and Bath and with Gloucs going down at home so badly to a weak Sarries team last week I fear there is only one result here.
Good luck Matt, I find myself with a sell of both teams' hotshots and both at my minimum price of 25, so I'll be hoping for a quiet night for the 8 players in question. Gloucester's with SPIN are Woodward, Marshall, Thorley and Simpson while Toulouse's with SX are Huget, Guitone, Ntamack and Medard.

The firms have slightly different quartets for each team, Atkinson for Simpson and Ramos for Ntamack. The first named in each pair are welcome to fill their boots! :)

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:59 pm

Good luck Harry.

I've added a sell of Bath multis @ 166. Ulster won't give up a massive amount of points (I hope!).

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:39 am

A real game of two halves last night but Toulouse came through for me in the end. Two tries (wonder-tries at that!) from Simpson let Harry down.

I've added a sell of Quins multis @ 81 to my other bets. It took a while for this game to be priced up but Quins are a very weak looking side and won't get much in France.

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Matt
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Re: Champions Cup

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:10 am

Mixed bag yesterday with both Exeter & Treviso doing much better than I expected. The good news though was a nilling from Glasgow multis and Bath making up at just 60. A small profit overall.

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